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CAIRO – Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has directly threatened Ethiopia for the first time since the dispute over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) broke out, amid failed and stalled rounds of negotiations under the auspices of the African Union (AU). “No one is allowed to take a single drop of water from Egypt; no one can even imagine the instability that would occur in the region if something like this happened. No one should dare to question our capabilities. But if they want to put us to the test, so be it. “
Sisi’s threats came during a press conference on March 30 on the sidelines of his visit to the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), after the giant container ship Ever Given was refloated after being trapped in the Canal. Suez for almost a week. “We have never made threats; We have always had a rational and patient approach, “Sisi said, adding:” Hostile action is ugly and has effects that span many years because people never forget such actions. The water of Egypt is off limits. If someone were to cross this red line, our response would affect the stability of the entire region. “
In a separate statement, Sisi stressed the fundamental importance of Egypt in serving and protecting international interests through its geographical location, especially after the global losses that followed the six-day blockade of the Suez Canal when the Ever Given was stalled. As soon as the ship was refloated, Sisi took to Facebook on March 29 and said: “We were able to get things running normally again so that the world can rest assured that its goods and needs passing through this critical shipping artery. they are on the move again. “
Six years have passed since Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia signed the Declaration of Principles in March 2015, the 10 clauses of which defined the rules for filling out the GERD and reducing any potential risks to the security of Egypt and Sudan’s water resources. However, technical and legal discussions between the three countries have been in vain, especially since Ethiopia has been making unilateral decisions to complete construction at the dam site, implemented the first phase backfill in July 2020, and plans advance with the second. -phase filling in July this year despite the objection of Egypt and Sudan, as they consider this action a direct threat to their national security.
Ayman Abdel Wahab, political affairs expert and deputy director of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor: “Sisi’s speech was a message of deterrence not only for Ethiopia, but for all parties that directly or indirectly Supporting Ethiopia’s intransigence, which is a serious matter that can seriously damage Egyptian strategic interests. “
He added: “Egypt wants to establish the equation for stability, development and international investment in the region, amid growing international conflict and competition in the Nile Basin and Horn of Africa region, which may push regional and international actors to intervene directly in a way that maintains the balance of power and stability in the Nile basin and guarantees Egyptian interests. “
Abdel Wahab noted: “Sisi’s deterrence messages come at a time when Ethiopia has an expansion project at the expense of neighboring countries and is assisted by regional and international powers. Ethiopia will not back down from its practices in the waters of the Nile without real international pressure. ”
He added: “There is still an opportunity for dialogue, but it will disappear if Ethiopia takes real steps to start the filling of the second phase, with the central part of the dam elevated.”
In response to Sisi’s statements, several Arab and African countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Kuwait, issued statements to support the Egyptian position that Egypt’s water security is part of Arab security and to support any effort that contributes to ending the GERD crisis taking into account the interests of all parties.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), in its capacity as President of the AU, invited the foreign ministers of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to meet in Kinshasa for a period of three days starting on April 3, without adhering to the mechanism of the international quartet that Egypt and Sudan proposed in March that the AU, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations mediate in the negotiations, which Ethiopia rejected.
The meeting of foreign ministers will take place after the UAE tried to play a mediating role between Sudan and Ethiopia to solve the border crisis and the GERD problem, not including Egypt. A Sudanese delegation, including the foreign and defense ministers, traveled to the United Arab Emirates on March 26, but the outcome of the visit has yet to be announced.
The UAE mediation between Ethiopia and Sudan, not including Egypt, was interpreted by observers of African affairs in Egypt as an attempt to break up and weaken the recent Egyptian-Sudanese coordination against Ethiopia’s policies on GERD.
Hani Raslan, an African affairs expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, posted on his Facebook account, warning against the dangers of concluding a bilateral agreement between Addis Ababa and Khartoum on the second filling, saying: “Once the 2nd If the filling of the dam reservoir is completed, Sudan will become hostage to Ethiopia’s decisions. This would weaken any objections or political or legal reservations towards Ethiopia and its actions in the waters of the Nile in the future. Storing 18.5 billion cubic meters means that Ethiopia has the ability to flood Sudan simply by opening the dam gates. “
Khaled Wasif, a water resources expert, told Al-Monitor: “President Sisi carefully selected the words he used in his statement. There was no direct threat to hit the dam or prevent the second fill directly, refuting claims made by Ethiopia to the international community that Egypt is an arrogant bully. “
Wasif added: “The real crisis lies in the absence of an agreement that regulates the management of water in the Nile basin and that separates the interests of the upstream and downstream countries, so the dispute over the river’s waters will continue. how is”.
Egyptian officials never mentioned that Egypt resorted to the military option to resolve the GERD dispute and force Ethiopia to sign a binding agreement that reduces the damage expected from filling and operating the dam, even as Egypt tried to handle the crisis of the GERD before the Department of Security. Council in 2020.
Even after Ethiopia made the unilateral decision to go ahead with the first filling of the dam reservoir in July 2020, Sisi declared: “Egypt is willing to deal with the GERD crisis through negotiation and not resort to to the military option “.
On March 31, the Egyptian armed forces announced the launch of joint air training exercises with Sudan, called Nile Eagles 2, at the Meroe air base in northern Sudan, with the participation of the air forces of both countries. Several joint sorties were conducted to engage enemy targets and fire multiple shots from different firing positions, as well as to protect vital targets. This training set is part of a series of military exercises between the two countries that began in November 2020.
The possibility of resolving the GERD conflict through negotiations is subject to the meeting of foreign ministers in the Democratic Republic of Congo on April 3, which may be the last chance for dialogue before Ethiopia begins to complete the second filling of the dam reservoir in July.
However, during her meeting with the US special envoy for Sudan, Donald Booth, on March 31, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Asma Mohamed Abdalla could have alluded to a possible further disruption, saying: ” Ethiopia is betting on buying time to complete the second fill, which should not be tolerated. “
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