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Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, May 10, 2020 (ECA) – The Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) launched a new report proposing to the African nations various strategies for exiting the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) after the imposition of blocks that helped to suppress the virus but with devastating economic consequences.
At least 42 African countries applied partial or full blockades in their quest to reduce the pandemic.
CEPA estimates that a full one-month blockade in Africa would cost the continent about 2.5 percent of its annual GDP, equivalent to approximately $ 65.7 billion per month. This is independent of and in addition to the broader external impact of COVID-19 in Africa from lower commodity prices and investment flows.
In the new report titled; COVID-19: Blockade exit strategies for Africa, The ECA proposes seven exit strategies that provide sustainable, albeit reduced, economic activity. The report sets out some of the exit strategies that are being proposed and tested around the world and describes the risks involved for African countries.
With the blockades came serious challenges for African economies, including a drop in demand for products and services; lack of operating cash flow; reduction of opportunities to meet new clients; businesses were closed; problems with the change of commercial strategies and the offer of alternative products and services; a decrease in the production and productivity of workers for working at home; logistics and shipping of products; and difficulties in obtaining supplies of essential raw materials for production.
Among the most delicate problems facing policymakers is the impact of COVID-19 blocks on food security.
The seven blocking exit strategies proposed by the expert group are identified from proposals and trials around the world. They are evaluated with respect to the extent to which each strategy minimizes the uncertainty about deaths. In most cases, countries are applying a combination of various strategies, such as testing, contact tracking, and gradual segmented reopening.
Are improve testing; block until preventive or curative medications are developed; contact tracking and mass testing; immunity permits; gradual segmented reopening; adaptive activation; and mitigation.
Adaptive-firing nations can ease the blockage once infections subside and re-assert themselves if they begin to rise above intensive care capacity. This would require regular closings that would last two-thirds of the year, which makes little difference to permanent closure from an economic perspective. Healthcare capacity in Africa is limited, which means that capacity would be rapidly exceeded, which could lead to deaths.
Mitigation gradually allows the infection to spread through the population with some social distancing measures implemented. He is reportedly working in Sweden, where an estimated 25 to 40 percent of Stockholm has contracted COVID-19, but it is based on good adherence to basic measures of social distancing and strong attention span of health. This could involve considerable risk in African populations with low access to medical care and unknown comorbidities.
The companies surveyed by CEPA reported that they operated only 43 percent; Seventy percent of slum dwellers report missing or less food as a result of COVID-19.
Blockades, the report notes, prevent serious vulnerabilities, and that testing, contact tracing and facilitation restrictions may be possible for countries with sufficient public health systems and that have contained the COVID-19 transmission, implemented preventive measures, committed and educated communities, and minimized risks for vulnerable groups.
Gradual segmented reopening may be necessary in countries where containment has failed with additional measures to suppress the spread of the disease that is required where the virus is still spreading, the report notes. The spread of the virus is still accelerating in many African countries on average by 30 percent each week.
Active learning and data collection can help policymakers determine risks across a wide range of policy unknowns as they consider recommendations to ease blockages and move toward a “new normal.”
The report urges African nations to take advantage. This may be an opportunity to learn from the experiences of other regions and their reopening experiments; and use the “overtime” offered by locks to quickly establish tests, treatment systems, preventive measures, and carefully design lockout exit strategies in collaboration with vulnerable communities and groups.
Issued by:
Communications Section
Economic Commission for Africa
PO Box 3001
Addis Ababa
Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 551 5826
Email: [email protected]
