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Eritrea has been involved in the Tigray crisis in Ethiopia from day one, experts say. But even though the two countries fight together against a common enemy, that doesn’t make them friends.
After more than three weeks of war, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed victory in his military campaign against the ruling Tigray party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The fierce fighting there has left thousands of civilians and security forces dead, according to the International Crisis Group. More than 40,000 people have reportedly fled the conflict zone, mainly to Sudan. Fears are growing that Ethiopia’s internal conflict could spread beyond its borders, as Abiy resists calls for dialogue.
One country is already more involved in the crisis than another. “[Eritrean President] Isaias Afewerki has been in this war from day one, “Ethiopian observer Kjetil Tronvoll, research director for peace and conflict studies at Norway’s Bjorknes University College, told DW.
Ethiopia and its neighbor Eritrea have a long and turbulent history of conflict. But today, Isaías from Eritrea and Abiy from Ethiopia are joining in the fight against the TPLF.
Old enemies, old friends
“The Eritrean regime has seen the TPLF as an enemy for a long time, which is very ironic,” journalist and Eritrea expert Michela Wrong told DW.
Until the early 1990s, the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), a secessionist movement that Isaías co-founded, and the TPLF were allies in the fight against Ethiopia’s military government. That government was overthrown in 1991 and two years later Eritrea gained independence. Meanwhile, the TPLF became the leading force in the ruling coalition that dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy came to power in 2018.
“They were supposed to be fraternal regimes that had fought together and were going to be good neighbors,” Wrong said.
But in 1998, the two countries went to war over territorial, economic and political disputes. Tens of thousands of people died.
“It was a bitter conflict, and since then the two regimes have hated each other,” Wrong explained.
After a peace agreement in 2000, Eritrea and Ethiopia remained in a state of armed confrontation for almost 18 years, which ended after Abiy of the Oromo Democratic Party became prime minister.
Together against Tigray
“Isaías had rejected all the peace negotiations,” Tronvoll said. “But when Abiy started firing Tigrayan’s top officials in early June 2018, Isaiah was happy to participate because it was game over for TPLF.”
In Tronvoll’s view, Isaiahs saw the reconciliation with Ethiopia under Abiy’s leadership as “just a continuation of the war against the TPLF.”
William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia at International Crisis Group, emphasized that the relationship between Eritrea and Tigray remains bad, and that has ramifications for Ethiopian-Eritrean ties to this day. “Tigray and the TPLF leadership are seen as the main obstacle to improving relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea from the perspective of leadership in those countries, and also in their vision the leadership of Tigray is seen as a threat to regional stability in general “, said. DW.
Ethiopia needs Eritrea
Davison explained that Ethiopia has an advantage in allying with its neighbor in the crisis. “Tigray has a long border with Eritrea, so to help the Ethiopian federal government’s campaign to remove the Tigray government, it made sense to use Eritrea at least as logistical support,” he said.
In the long term, Abiy and Isaías have the same goal, which motivates them to work together after years of conflict between their countries, Tronvoll said, adding: “Abiy needs Isaías’s backing to further marginalize the TPLF from power.” .
The TPLF does not recognize Abiy, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for his reconciliation efforts with Eritrea.
Eritrea is willing to offer its own soldiers as “cannon fodder” to defeat the Tigrayan forces in the war, Tronvoll said.
“A large part of the troops used and slaughtered on the northern front are Eritrean soldiers, many of them minors,” he explained. “They are 14, 15 or 16 years old and used as a first human wave, they storm the entrenched position of the Tigrayan defense forces and die in [the] hundreds, thousands. The second wave could hit the fences. “
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More than allies?
But can this new alliance also be considered a new friendship? Tronvoll is skeptical. “This is Ethiopia: in the past there have always been regional elites who fought each other and joined forces [with] each other to gain advantage, “he said.” The whole mentality of war, conflict and political alliances is deeply ingrained historically. And therefore it can explain why they go so quickly from friend to foe and from foe to friend. “
As Wrong said: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend. I think there is a sense that this is happening here.”
“Both are regimes that felt they had a problem with the TPLF,” he said.
As a result, Wrong does not believe that the conflict in Tigray will be resolved anytime soon. In his view, the new relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is simply a “temporary alliance” with a common goal.
