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However, some scientists have said that it is premature to conclude from the available data that climate change influenced the emergence of the new coronavirus.
Climate change may have played a role in the outbreaks of the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19, as well as the 2002-03 SARS virus pandemic, a new study suggests. He says that the global crisis caused by the release of greenhouse gases likely altered the distribution of bat species that carry these pathogens.
The study, published in the journal Science of The Total Environment, noted that Yunnan Province in southern China and neighboring regions in Myanmar and Laos form a global hotspot of increased bat wealth driven by the climate change.
According to scientists, including those at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom, this region coincides with the probable origin of the ancestors of the two viruses transmitted by bats: SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.
Based on previous studies, the researchers said that the amount of viruses from the coronavirus family present in an area is strongly correlated with the richness of local bat species. As species richness increases, they said there may be an increase in the probability that a coronavirus (CoV) with properties potentially harmful to human life is “present, transmitted or evolving in the area.”
“Species richness, in turn, is affected by climate change, which drives the geographic distribution of species by altering the suitability of ecological habitats, forcing species to disappear from some areas and allowing them to expand. in others, “the scientists wrote in the study. .
In the study, the researchers estimated how climate change has impacted the global richness of bat species over the last century.
They said a global tipping point of increasing bat wealth driven by climate change in the region may have been the likely origin of the ancestors of the novel coronavirus and the SARS virus, transmitted by bats.
“This provides a possible mechanistic link between climate change and the emergence of the two viruses,” the study noted.
According to the scientists, regions of Central Africa, several scattered patches in Central and South America, and “notably a large space group located in Yunnan province in southern China and neighboring regions in Myanmar and Laos,” have experienced significant increases in the richness of bat species. due to range changes driven by climate change over the last century.
They said that in parts of Myanmar and Laos a climate change-driven increase of about 40 species of bats has been estimated.
Read: COVID-19: Scientists and conservationists urge the public not to destroy bat habitats
The scientists said this corresponds to an increase in the local number of bat-borne coronaviruses on the order of nearly 100 viruses, given that each species of bat carries around 2.67 CoV on average.
“Given the possibility posed by our analysis that global greenhouse gas emissions may have been a contributing factor to the SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, we echo calls for mitigation decisive factor of climate change, including as part of Covid-19 economic recovery programs, “they wrote in the study.
However, the scientists clarified that future research applying alternative models of vegetation change and species distribution is needed to confirm the pattern suggested in the study.
Commenting on the findings, Paul Valdés, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Bristol in the UK, said that “habitat loss may have played a much more important role in changing biodiversity than any small effect of change. climate and this is not incorporated into your model. “
Valdés, who was not involved in the study, believes that it is premature to conclude from the available data that climate change influenced the appearance of the new coronavirus.
Kate Jones, Professor of Ecology and Biodiversity at University College London in the UK, agreed.
According to Jones, the risk of new viruses jumping out of animals is a complex interaction not only of ecological hazard, but also of human exposure and vulnerability.
“It may turn out that increased human populations, human movement, and degradation of natural environments through agricultural expansion have a larger role to play in understanding the process of spread of SARS-CoV-2,” he added .
Another scientist, Matthew Struebig, who was also not involved in the study, said in a statement that while the approach used in the analysis is “interesting,” the data on the distribution of bat species used in the analysis is “patchy at best. of the cases “and” is not ideal.
Struebig, who is affiliated with the University of Kent in the UK, said in a statement that “the evidence really should be further supported.”
He believes the study has “too many assumptions” to conclude that climate change increased the likelihood of the two pandemic viruses.
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