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Although elections will not be held in Zambia for 10 months, the battle lines already being drawn over the country’s debt problems could make them the problem in ousting the longtime incumbent.
The presidential and parliamentary elections on August 12, 2021, will mark the sixth attempt by 58-year-old opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema to claim the highest post.
Meanwhile, Edgar Lungu, 63, hopes to hold on to the presidency he has held since 2015, even as the global coronavirus pandemic hits the prices of commodities propping up Zambia’s heavily mining economy.
Presidential contenders have already begun to exchange criticism in the run-up to the elections.
But “there are more substantive campaign issues that are likely to weigh heavily on the electoral scale of consideration for many Zambians,” said University of Zambia policy expert Sishuwa Sishuwa.
“The most important thing is the faltering state of the economy, compounded by a crippling public debt.”
Copper-rich Zambia has seen its external debt rise to nearly $ 12 billion this year, about 80 percent of GDP.
This week, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s declared Lusaka in default after the government failed to pay interest.
Last month, the government had already asked to defer interest payments on three commercial Eurobonds worth $ 3 billion until April next year, just four months before the vote.
Debt repayment has become more difficult as the country’s kwacha currency has fallen by around 30 percent against the dollar since the beginning of the year.
Low demand for copper has put pressure on global prices, with knock-on effects for the Zambian mining industry, its main source of export earnings.
The International Monetary Fund projects that the Zambian economy will contract 4.8 percent this year.
However, analysts expect Lungu to once again turn “to his proven mining industry playbook for quick cash injections” for his re-election campaign, said Ed Hobey-Hamsher of risk advisory Verisk Maplecroft.
For now, ordinary Zambians are hit the hardest by the weakening kwacha, which pushed inflation to 16 percent in September.
“Most people have no money right now,” said Rebecca Nkhoma, a clothing seller and one of those feeling the rush.
The crisis has not saved large manufacturers and retailers either.
“Right now, I think we are in trouble,” said Yusuf Dodia, president of the Private Sector Development Association, questioning how Zambia finds itself with the “largest external debt and internal debt in our nation’s history” as marks 56 years after independence from Britain on Saturday.
After suffering a narrow defeat in the 2016 elections, Hichilema pinned his hopes on disenchantment with Lungu’s administration of the economy to win the presidency.
“The bad economic situation should benefit the opposition as it adds to their criticism of the government’s economic policy,” said Mark Bohlund of REDD research and advisory services.
After losing five elections between 2006 and 2016, Hichilema has vowed to resign as leader of his United Party for National Development (UPND) if he fails again next year.
Known to his supporters as HH, Hichilema is a self-made entrepreneur who has become one of the richest entrepreneurs in the country with interests in finance, livestock, property, healthcare, and tourism.
Recently, the former Finance Minister and now leader of the opposition Forum for Democracy and Development party, Edith Nawakwi, accused him of theft from the sale of state institutions two decades ago.
Hichilema has maintained his innocence, while some observers believe that Nawakwi’s party, widely seen as pro-Lungu, has enlisted in a scheme aimed at discrediting the strongest opposition contender.
The allegations allow “Lungu to divert the public’s attention from the growing criticism of corruption in his inner circle and in government,” Sishuwa said.
“It is also a strategy aimed at potentially excluding Hichilema, who represents the most credible threat to the incumbent’s chances of victory, from the polls.”
“These people are very afraid of me and their plan is to eliminate me from the elections next year,” Hichilema told AFP.
strs-sn / tgb / lc
