[ad_1]
The direct climate impact of the coronavirus lockdown has lowered temperature projections for 2050 by an “insignificant” 0.01 ° C, the UN revealed.
However, an ecological economic recovery from the pandemic could make a substantial difference, according to the annual report on the emissions gap of the United Nations Environment Program (Unep), potentially reducing greenhouse gas emissions by a 25% over the next decade and leading the world to meet the Paris agreement target of keeping temperatures within 2 ° C of pre-industrial levels.
Months of empty roads, empty skies and slow economic activity reduced this year’s global greenhouse gas discharges by about 7%, the steepest annual drop ever recorded.
But the temporary decline simply slowed the build-up of carbon in the atmosphere, leaving the world on the path of a catastrophic 3.2 ° C warming by the end of this century, even if countries implement their existing commitments under the Paris Agreement. .
“We are going in the wrong direction,” Inger Andersen, Unep’s chief executive, told The Guardian. “We had confinement. Some people think that gave us a bonanza. But it’s not like that. Just because you stop turning on the faucet for a moment or two, that doesn’t change the fact that the tub is still full. “
The emissions gap study calculates the difference between national climate targets and the international target agreed in Paris in 2015 to keep global warming between 1.5 ° C and 2 ° C. As in the previous 11 editions, the report by this year shows that states are far off course and have increasingly destructive consequences.
2020 will surely be among the three hottest years in the world since measurements began. It has been marked by record fires in Australia, Siberia and California, an unusually intense Atlantic hurricane season, and a later onset of Arctic ice formation than ever before. “The year 2020 has set new records, they will not be the last,” says the report.
The alteration of the climate is driven by human activity. Greenhouse gas emissions, including land use change, increased on average 1.4% per year over the past decade to reach a new high of 59.1 gigatons in 2019.
The pace dropped this year due to the lockdown. Preliminary assessments suggest that CO2 emissions could be reduced by about 7% in 2020, a much larger decrease than that recorded during the last slowdown in 2008-2009, which was caused by the global financial crisis.
The Covid-induced reduction was roughly in line with the scale of cuts that will be needed each year through 2030 to meet the Paris targets, according to last year’s report. Officials said the change caused by the disease was accidental, temporary and involved too much suffering to be replicable, but the economic stimulus that follows could make a substantial difference if used to decarbonize.
“We cannot lock up the world and stop the engines of our economy,” Andersen said. But we learned a lesson. Now we must make sure that the money we are investing in the recovery goes to a good cause. Let’s make sure it is not used to go the previous way. There may never be another chance to put all this money into the economy. We will have to borrow from the future to do that, so let’s not leave the next generation with enormous debt and a broken planet. “
The UN estimates that the levels of ambition in the Paris agreement must roughly triple to put the world on track to 2 ° C and rise at least five times to 1.5 ° C.
So far, economic recovery plans have been disappointing. Covid-19 fiscal spending has overwhelmingly supported the status quo or encouraged new high-carbon investments, the report says. In October, just a quarter of G20 members dedicated up to 3% of GDP explicitly to low-carbon measures.
The situation could improve soon. The UN figures do not take into account the recent wave of enhanced climate commitments. China, by far the world’s largest emitter, has committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2060, while the EU, Japan, South Korea and South Africa are aiming for the same goal by mid-century. The UK has gone one step further by enshrining its net zero target in law and promising a 68% cut by 2030 as part of its National Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris agreement.
The report says 126 countries, which cover 51% of global greenhouse gas emissions, have net zero targets. If the United States adopts a similar target for 2050, as suggested in President-elect John Biden’s climate plan, the turnout would rise to 63%.
Andersen said these developments gave more cause for optimism this year than last, but urged more nations to increase ambition and incorporate concrete short-term policies into their NDCs. “Those numbers are encouraging, but it is one thing to declare a net goal of zero and another to say how it will be achieved. So far, none of the zero net commitments have been translated into NDC. “
This will be addressed at this week’s climate commitments meeting and at a key UN climate summit next year, Cop26, which will be hosted by the UK in partnership with Italy.
This year’s report also addresses the sources of emissions that have so far escaped inclusion in national plans: aviation, shipping, and consumer lifestyles. The document emphasizes the need for wealthy people to take on more responsibilities. It says that the richest 1% of the world’s population emits more than twice as much carbon as the poorest 50%. “This elite will have to reduce their footprint by a factor of 30 to stay in line with the goals of the Paris agreement,” he says.
Andersen reiterated, however, that the most important step is a second phase of green spending that goes much further than the first. Compared to last year, he said: “We are in a better place. We have seen what is possible, albeit for the wrong reason, and now we are seeing zero net promises. If – and it is a yes – the next stimulus is aligned with decarbonisation, we will be in a good position ”.
