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The second wave of the pandemic, which has long reached other parts of the world, is also spreading across the African continent.
From South Africa to Nigeria, Rwanda, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the number of new coronavirus infections is increasing in many parts of Africa.
The continent has registered more than 2.5 million cases since the pandemic began, with some 59,770 deaths.
“The second wave has arrived,” said Ado Muhammad, a special health adviser to the Group of Eight developing countries (known as D8), which includes Nigeria.
“That worries me. People go about their business as usual, going to weddings, events, churches and mosques. They hold hands, they don’t wear masks and there is no social distancing,” the public health specialist told DW.
Health authorities in 47 African countries have recorded an average of 73,000 new COVID-19 infections per week since the end of November compared to an average of 30,000 new weekly cases in October, according to the World Health Organization.
The number of daily infections in Rwanda is on the rise, even though bars and clubs have been closed since March.
In Kenya, the cases began to increase again in October. The government has extended the nationwide curfew until January 3, and schools are largely closed until 2021.
South Africa also appears to have been hit by a second wave, now accounting for more than a third of reported coronavirus cases across the entire African continent.
At its peak in July, South Africa reported nearly 14,000 new cases a day. This dropped in October to around 1,000 new cases a day. Now, however, the number of new daily infections has soared back to 9,500.
South African Health Minister Zwelini Mkhize said the COVID-19 positivity rate, the proportion of tests that test positive, had risen to 21%. This is much higher than the “ideal” rate of 10%, he tweeted.
South Africa reports new coronavirus mutation
Wolfgang Preiser, head of the Division of Medical Virology at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, is surprised by the timing of the country’s second wave because it is summer in the southern hemisphere.
“I was hoping that we would avoid this until the fall, for example in April, when it’s colder,” Preiser said in an interview with DW.
The rapid increase in coronavirus cases in South Africa could be due to a new and more infectious variant of the disease, said Preiser, who was involved in detecting the mutation.
Several countries, including Germany, have suspended air travel from South Africa in hopes of stopping the spread of this variant.
The South African government has also responded by stepping up measures against the coronavirus, including closing public beaches and restricting the sale of alcohol.
Africans hit hard by COVID-19 lockdowns
Preiser does not believe, however, that South Africa can tolerate another tough national blockade like the one introduced in March.
Nigerian economist Lawan Habib also advises against African nations resorting to shutdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19 in Africa.
“The fragile nature of the African economy cannot contain a second wave of total lockdown,” Habib, a professor at Kano State Polytechnic in northern Nigeria, told DW in an interview.
“Going into a lockdown again will only double the problem of poverty and unemployment,” he said, adding that people are still suffering the impact of the first blockades.
Instead, governments should focus on infrastructure to support remote learning and people working from home, he said.
Lessons from the first wave
South Africa, for example, is better prepared to fight a second wave of coronavirus, having learned lessons from the first, says virologist Preiser.
“We have improved in terms of oxygen. We are diagnosing diabetics, who did not even know they had the disease and who are particularly at risk [of severe outcomes from COVID-19]. I hope that the newly created structures within the healthcare system will also produce long-term improvements. “
South Africa, like many other African countries, has a proven track record in managing disasters and allocating limited resources, he noted, adding that triage was routine in many poor countries.
Triage is when patients are prioritized based on the severity of their condition and their likelihood of recovery without treatment.
Africano still not doing enough tests
It is still difficult to know exactly how widespread the coronavirus is on the continent, the WHO warns because the levels of testing in Africa are low compared to other regions of the world.
Ten of the 54 countries (South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Ghana) account for around 70% of the total number of tests performed in Africa.
To address the shortage, an initiative called PACT (Partnership to Accelerate COVID-19 Testing) is currently working to procure 11 million rapid antigen tests for African countries.
Vaccines are still months away
In Africa, hope also rests in newly developed vaccines that have already been approved in various parts of the world, including the United States and the European Union.
Nigerian Health Minister Osagie Ehanire has said the country expects to receive its first shipment of COVID-19 vaccine in January, though he added that he was not yet sure which vaccine it would be.
The government had previously announced that Nigeria would receive 20 million doses of vaccines.
Kenya has also ordered 24 million doses of vaccines through the COVAX initiative, which aims to ensure that all countries in the world have equal access to coronavirus vaccines.
Experts believe it will be months before vaccines are widely available across the continent. John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control, said at a recent press conference that mass vaccination will not begin in Africa until mid-2021.
This makes it even more important to fight the second wave with all available means, warns virologist Wolfgang Preiser.
“Wear a mask, keep your distance, keep your social life outdoors as much as possible,” he advised.
But, he said, the messages that ask people to change their behavior are no longer strong enough.
“Maybe now you have to show [the consequences]: ‘You had a party here and now Grandpa is dead,’ ”he said.
He urged everyone to take responsibility for themselves and their families to lower the infection curve, for the second time.
This article was adapted from the German by Kate Hairsine.
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