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FILE – Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – Reuters
CAIRO – November 17, 2020: Sudanese researcher Salah Khalil published an analysis of the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia through the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS) that traces the origins of the crisis and speculations about the future of the African country .
The article entitled “Tigray Region: Repercussions of Internal Instability in Ethiopia”, began with the “reasons behind (the) rebellion”.
Khalil stresses that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has been sidelined since Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, prompting the resignation of his ministers in the federal government. In addition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), from which the TPLF and entities representing other regions, was dismantled.
The TPLF that governs the region that is home to more than five million people had tensions with the federal government in recent months when the prime minister suspended elections to be held in August.
As a result, the government of the region held elections in the region in September. As a consequence, the federal government refused to approve the results of these elections. Likewise, the Tigray government considered Ahmed’s government illegitimate since October 5, asking him to resign and advocating the formation of an interim government until elections are held.
The researcher points out that half of the members of the Ethiopian Armed Forces are affiliated with the TPLF, which owns 70 percent of missiles and anti-aircraft warfare.
On October 31, the Ethiopian Army issued a firm statement after the deputy commander of the Northern Military Zone, Gamal Mohamed, was captivated upon his arrival in the region before being released, the newspaper noted.
Khalil believes that the current Ethiopian government sees neither dialogue nor peaceful solutions. Rather, he prefers military operations in an attempt to end the federal system of government and achieve Ahmed’s Prosperity Party plans that target a central state.
Ahmed asked Ethiopian expatriates to transfer money through national banks and not through private companies to finance the war. The investigator maintains that Ahmed implied that Ethiopian expatriates had to be careful with money transfer companies owned by the people of Tigray.
The researcher speculates that the cost of the war as well as the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak will be detrimental to Ethiopia’s economy. Furthermore, the country may even be shattered, as many regions currently want independence to form mini-states.
A large number of Tigray military commanders expelled by Ahmed from the Ethiopian Armed Forces and other security agencies have been training elements to defend the ethnic group, the newspaper notes.
It also shows that, on the other hand, Ahmed replaced the foreign minister and the heads of the security agencies with others belonging to Amhara.
Regarding the likely outcomes, the people of Tigray will become more united due to the war that has been waged against their region, and Ethiopians in general will lose all confidence in their state institutions, which has proven to be impartial, the newspaper estimates.
On November 4, Abiy Ahmed launched military operations against the Tigray region. Atrocities occurred and 20,000 fled to Sudan.
The attacks were carried out by the Ethiopian Armed Forces and the Amhara Region special forces. Eritrean forces have concentrated on the borders with Tigray and were reportedly involved in the attacks. However, the Eretrian authorities deny the allegations.
It is noted that the late Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, whose rule lasted from 1995 until his death in 2012, belonged to Tigray and was, while in office, leader of the TPLF and EPRDF.
