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TAIPEI, TAIWAN – Malaysia and Vietnam, militarily weaker than China, are expected to protest through diplomatic channels over a fleet of Chinese reconnaissance vessels that entered disputed waters this month, inviting a long but non-violent confrontation.
Both Southeast Asian countries are monitoring the movement of China’s Haiyang Dizhi 8 fleet, which multiple news reports say went through controversial South China Sea treaties last week. The same ship spent four months in 2019 on a stretch of oil-rich sea claimed by Vietnam and blocked Vietnamese crews from exploring for underwater oil.
This time, the two states are likely to diplomatically protest to China, but do little more, analysts believe. They lack the general military might of China. The Prime Minister of Malaysia, in office for less than two months, also has little experience in foreign policy.
Against that silenced response, China could maintain its prospecting fleet in contested waters and hamper Malaysia and Vietnam’s energy drilling efforts, experts said.
“It’s just the status quo,” said Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales in Australia.
“China is doing its investigative work and Malaysia is looking for oil, and occasionally they have harassment and close calls, diplomatic pressure behind the scenes, and then at some point the weather changes or not, and China, if Malaysia doesn’t budge, takes the container and bring it back, ”said Thayer.
This type of friction appears regularly in the general dispute of the South China Sea.
China, Malaysia, Vietnam and three other governments are claiming all or part of the 3.5 million square kilometer waterway. They value it for fishing, sea routes, oil and natural gas. China has become more powerful than the other claimants in the past 10 years by filling small islets for military installations.
The complaining states have made little diplomatic progress in resolving disputes. The US Navy USA It periodically passes ships through the South China Sea as a warning to Beijing.
New PM in Malaysia
Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, a former interior minister appointed in March, will likely take a discreet approach to China’s presence at sea, analysts say. His predecessor, Mahathir Mohamad, publicly questioned the basis of China’s claims and warned against the use of any warship.
“This new prime minister is not Mahathir,” said Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. “He is not known for taking a tough diplomatic or political stance.”
Instead, expect discreet negotiations between Malaysia and China, which in turn will move their ships “peacefully but deliberately” in the disputed waters, Oh said.
China resents Malaysia for filing documentation with the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf in December on plans to extend its rights in the South China Sea beyond 370 kilometers from its baselines, Thayer said. China claims around 90% of the sea and cites historical records of use as support.
Malaysia started in October looking for oil and gas just outside those 370 kilometers. West Capella, a mock contract managed by a British company, became the “heart of the standoff” that has also attracted Chinese Coast Guard ships, the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative, operated by its website, says. an American think tank.
The reconnaissance ship arrived last week with about 10 escort boats and could return with 20 or 30, an unprecedented show of force from China to Malaysia, said an academic investigating for the Malaysian government.
The ship was sailing near mainland China east of Hong Kong late Sunday, according to the ship tracking website Marine Traffic.
Vietnam learned from 2019
In July last year, the same Chinese energy research ship began patrolling near the Vanguard Bank, 352 kilometers off the coast of southeast Vietnam. Vietnam operates an underwater energy exploration platform near Vanguard Bank. The ship departed in October.
Vietnamese and Chinese ships collided with each other in 2014 when China allowed an oil rig to enter disputed waters. But when the research ship showed last year, China kept Vietnam away from its oil drilling site and the showdown was down to “who blinks first,” Thayer said.
Vietnam will probably protest again this time and avoid the use of force, scholars say.
In that case, the Haiyang Dizhi 8 fleet could spend two to three months in disputed waters this year by using padded islands for replenishment, said Nguyen Thanh Trung, director of the Center for International Studies at the University of Social Sciences and Ho Chi Minh City Humanities.
Vietnam eventually expects support from other Southeast Asian states, he said.
“This is like the annual,” said Nguyen. “It seems to me that this is the second time that the reconnaissance ship has returned to the South China Sea. If Southeast Asian countries do not collaborate at this time, perhaps next year the survey ship will return again and perhaps they will choose another area of the South China Sea for the survey. ”
