Can Biden still win? Can Trump Still Win? A closer look at the remaining roads

Workers count ballots at the Central Count Facility in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. By Chang W Lee © 2020 The New York Times

Joe Biden has come much closer to the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House with victories in Wisconsin and Michigan on Wednesday, leaving President Donald Trump largely playing defense on a shrinking map of the battlefield. , if it is still viable.

Trump’s path, through Wednesday night, focused on winning all 20 Pennsylvania Electoral College votes, along with other scenarios involving keeping Georgia, erasing Biden’s leadership in Arizona, and changing Nevada, the most unstable state. on Biden’s map.

On Tuesday night, Biden’s team nervously watched as the hypothetical campaign states – Florida, Ohio, Texas and North Carolina – quickly broke down for the president. But early Wednesday, it was the former vice president, not the current president, who went on the offensive, gaining momentum in his effort to recapture Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, once trusted “blue wall” states.

By Wednesday afternoon The Associated Press had declared Biden the winner in both Wisconsin and Michigan, as the Democratic areas in those states began to report more results.

With those victories, Biden now has two clear and plausible paths to victory:

– He could win Pennsylvania, a state that appeared to be swaying in his favor when the early and mail-in voting counting began.

– Or, if he stays in Nevada, he could take Arizona, which has already been declared a Biden victory by some news organizations even though hundreds of thousands of votes remain to be counted.

Biden even has a third path, less likely than the other two, but still viable: Winning both Nevada and Georgia, where an influx of mail-in ballots from Atlanta and its suburbs cut off what seemed like an insurmountable Trump lead Wednesday night. .

If I had to choose Arizona or Georgia along with Nevada, winning Pennsylvania would be unnecessary.

In a call with reporters early Wednesday, Biden’s team expressed confidence that the former vice president would win by taking the “easy” road, along the old “blue wall” in the Midwest and Appalachians.

That had seemed less plausible Tuesday night, when Trump jumped to a 700,000-vote lead in Pennsylvania. But many ballots remained to be counted, and the absentee vote in particular was expected to favor Biden because many Democratic voters used the vote by mail during the coronavirus pandemic.

Republicans express confidence that Trump will ultimately prevail in Arizona, but Biden kept a small lead there, with the president’s aides privately admitting that a Biden victory there would be a devastating blow to his chances of winning across the country.

A Biden victory in Arizona, coupled with a victory in Nevada, would put him at precisely 270 electoral votes, without Pennsylvania.

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“Joe Biden’s path has not changed to a great extent since he entered this race,” said Guy Cecil, chairman of Priorities USA, a leading Democratic super political action committee, said early Wednesday. “There are still at least five competitive states that give 270 multiple paths. It may take a couple of days to count the votes, and we may have to fight the Trump campaign in court, but Joe Biden is still the favorite.” .

Trump’s victories in Florida, Ohio and Texas did not create a new path for him, but closed new shortcuts by which Biden could have won the victory on Election Day. His last chance to turn around is Nevada, another close race, but one in which the majority of uncounted votes are expected to favor Biden.

Otherwise, Trump’s path to winning a second term will likely hinge on holding onto Pennsylvania, which narrowly won in 2016; retain Georgia and North Carolina; and winning Arizona or Nevada.

“Trump’s path is exactly the same as it was in 2016,” said Alex Conant, a veteran Republican strategist of Senator Marco Rubio’s campaigns. “It needs to outperform some traditional blue states. Trump wins when voters that Democrats take for granted no longer vote reliably for Democrats. “

In Nebraska, one of the two states, along with Maine, that divided their electoral votes by congressional district, Biden won the second congressional district in the state, which includes Omaha. The chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, Jane Kleeb, declared victory early Wednesday morning.

“Omaha is now Joe-maha,” he said.

Because Biden won that single Nebraska electoral vote, he kept the path open that allows him to win Arizona and Nevada and achieve exactly 270 electoral votes.

Reid J Epstein and Glenn Thrush c. 2020 The New York Times Company