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Dominic Thiem was tight. In fact, he himself acknowledged at his victorious US Open press conference that he was “super, super tight.”
“The problem was my nerves,” Thiem said after the game. In the same way that Stan Wawrinka was shaking and crying in the locker room before defeating Novak Djokovic in four sets in the 2016 US Open final, Thiem said he was tight all day.
Due to tension, he quickly fell behind in two sets to love and a break in the third. Because as Thiem said, “faith was stronger than body”, he won his first Grand Slam title, defeating Alexander Zverev 2-6, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (6) in one of the most physically and mentally exhausting finals in recent memory. Both players suffered cramps in the end, their bodies failing them when they needed it most. Their minds went to hell and came back trying to get to the finish line first.
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Zverev was by no means tight to start the match, but he also succumbed to nerves as he tried to close out a big lead instead of continuing to employ the fast and aggressive style of play that positioned him so far ahead in the match. Knowing that the wolves were howling in the heads of both players during the final provides the necessary lens to understand the analytics of the match, which changed dramatically from start to finish.
For example, Zverev had 10 forehand winners and 17 forehand errors in the first two sets. It was the most dominant shot on the court. In the remaining three sets, he only had seven forehand winners and made 40 errors. Nerves ruthlessly pulled this shot to the knees.
With 61 minutes remaining, Thiem walked to the baseline to serve out losing 6-2, 5-1, 30/40. He ended up saving three break points in that game, providing the first speck of light at the end of the tunnel. He managed three games in a row at 4-5, including breaking Zverev for the first time in the match.
This is where the winds started to change for Thiem.
In Zverev’s post-match interview, he said: “The match changed when he broke me for the first time in the second set (at 5-2). I think he started to play a lot better and I started to play a lot worse ”. If Zverev ever has any doubts about the style of play that best suits his 6’6 ”athletic build, he doesn’t need to look beyond the first 14 games of the final where he led 6-2, 5-1. He is a powerful baseline player who relentlessly hunts the short ball. And yes, serving and volleying is a line at the top of the game plan.
Zverev comes forward
In the final, Zverev served and volleyed 40 times (a statistic that includes aces, unreturned aces and five double faults, when advancing), winning 68 percent (27/40). Zverev won five of six points on serve and volley in the first set, including serve and second serve volley leading 2-1, 15-0. The strategy worked so well because Thiem stayed as far back as possible to take his position back, often double-checking where the lines were in his immediate vicinity, so as not to collide with them.
Zverev was credited with getting close to the net 66 times in the match, winning a healthy 65 percent (43/66) of points, which was well above the 45 percent (72/160) he won at the baseline. . With Thiem wanting to go back as far as possible to come back and recover, moving forward was the perfect antidote for Zverev.
Thiem spreading the Rallies
Zverev conducted a masterclass from north to south in the first two sets. Thiem desperately wanted to turn the game from east to west and turn it into a groundstroke duel with a lot of topspin, a big cut and side-to-side pain. He wanted to wear down Zverev and was willing to sacrifice every last drop of his own physical form to make it happen.
The average play length of the five sets identifies exactly how Thiem worked his way back into the match.
Average duration of the rally
| Set | Average length of the rally | Leave |
| one | 4 | Zverev 6-2 |
| two | 3.3 | Zverev 6-4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | Thiem 6-4 |
| 4 | 5 | Thiem 6-3 |
| 5 | 6.3 | Thiem 7-6 (6) |
The average length of play in the fifth set (6.29 shots) was almost double that of the second set (3.30 shots) when Zverev was basically untouchable.
Double fouls
Zverev’s 15 double faults played an important role in his loss in the final. He was broken seven times in the match, with seven double faults occurring in five of those service games. Two double faults poked their heads out in the fifth set tie-break.
Zverev saved a match point at 5-6 in the fifth-set tie-break with a 68 mph second serve that barely slipped over the net. Serving 3-4 in the fourth set, he hit seven second serves and finally broke. One was a double fault, two were over 130 mph, while the other four were 83 mph and under. No one knew what was coming or where they were landing, especially Zverev.
Distance race
Overall, both players ran 5 kilometers during the final, with Thiem running 5206 meters and Zverev running 5138 meters. The mean distance covered per point for Thiem was 16.17 meters, which induced lactic acid, and Zverev averaged 15.96 meters. Thiem’s desperate plan to extend the rallies to survive Zverev was dangerous as it brought him to the brink of exhaustion to achieve it. He couldn’t stay still towards the end of the match for fear that his body would lock up.
This final was about survival. It was about believing that there was a way to go when it didn’t exist.
