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A large number of Belarusians at all levels of society simply no longer recognize Lukashenka as their legitimate president. The unprecedented size and persistence of protests against his regime and the enormous scale of reports of repressive actions, torture and even murder, it means that Belarus will never be the same again.
However, the current paralysis of EU policy and the absence of a comprehensive US policy are serving as a de facto license for Lukashenka to deepen the political crisis. The sooner policy makers realize this and act more responsibly and confidently, the faster the growing repression can be reversed.
2. Do not recognize Lukashenka as president
If the international community fails to recognize Lukashenka as president, it makes him more toxic to others, including Russia and China, who will be reluctant to waste resources on someone who is seen as the main cause of Belarusian instability. Even if Russia still decides to save Lukashenka and support him financially, ignoring Lukashenka diminishes the legitimacy of any agreement it signs with the Kremlin on collaboration or integration.
Demanding a rerun of the presidential elections must also remain firmly on the agenda, as officials within the Lukashenka system must know that this international pressure will not go away until a truly transparent vote takes place.
3. Be present on the ground
To stop the repression and establish links with actors within Belarus, a monitoring group should be organized under the auspices of the UN, OSCE or other international organizations to establish a presence on the ground and remain in the country for as long as necessary and is necessary. possible. Governments and parliaments can send their own missions, while staff from international media and NGOs should be encouraged to report on what is actually happening within the country.
The greater the visible presence of the international community in Belarus, the less brutal Lukashenka’s agencies can be in going after protesters, which in turn would allow for more substantial negotiations to take place between the democratic movement and Lukashenka.
4. Announce an economic support package for a democratic Belarus.
The Belarusian economy was already in bad shape before the elections, but the situation is going to get much worse. The only way out is the support of the international community with a “Marshall Plan for a democratic Belarus”. States and international financial institutions must declare that they will provide meaningful financial assistance through grants or low-interest loans, but only if there is democratic change first.
It is essential to condition this economic package to democratic reform, but also that it does not have geopolitical ties. If a democratically elected government decides that it wants to improve relations with Russia, it should still be able to count on an assistance package.
This would send a strong signal to the economic reformers who remain within Lukashenka’s system, giving them a genuine choice between a functioning Belarusian economy or staying with Lukashenka, whose leadership is seen by many as responsible for ruining the country’s economy.
5. Introduce specific political and economic sanctions
Lukashenka’s regime deserves tough sanctions at the international leveland, but so far only selective visa restrictions or account freezes have been imposed, which have little or no effect on what is actually happening on the ground. Visa sanction lists need to be expanded but, more importantly, there should be increased economic pressure on the regime. The companies that are the most important to Lukashenka’s business interests must be identified and sanctioned, all their business activity must be stopped, and all their overseas accounts must be frozen.
Governments should also persuade large companies in their own country to reconsider working with Belarusian producers. It’s embarrassing that international corporations continue to advertise in Lukashenka-controlled media and they appear to be ignoring reports of human rights violations in the Belarusian companies with which they do business.
Furthermore, a time limit should be set to stop any repression or broader economic sanctions will be imposed. This would send a strong message to Lukashenka and also to his entourage, many of whom would become more convinced that he has to go.
6. Support NGOs to investigate complaints of torture.
Few legal mechanisms exist to prosecute those believed to be involved in electoral fraud and acts of brutality. However, all reports of torture and forgeries must be properly documented by human rights defenders, including the identification of the alleged participants. Gathering evidence now paves the way for investigations, targeted sanctions, and influence over law enforcement officials in the future.
But since this investigation is not possible in Belarus at the moment, international human rights activists should be able to initiate the process outside the country with the support of Belarusian NGOs.
7. Support known victims of the regime.
Even with an unprecedented campaign of solidarity among Belarusians, many people need support, especially those who have allegedly suffered torture. Some media outlets claim to have lost a significant amount of revenue because advertisers were forced to withdraw and journalists were arrested. Human rights defenders need funds to keep organizations functioning in the heat of this repression.
Supporting all these individuals and organizations will cost tens of millions of euros, but would significantly ease the enormous financial burden faced by those who have opposed the regime.
