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This article is part of our series exploring the business of artificial intelligence.
After weeks of confusion and conflicting news, it has almost been confirmed that Hyundai-Kia will begin manufacturing Apple’s mysterious autonomous electric vehicle at one of its factories in 2024. Or later. Or not at all.
As with almost all news coming from Apple, the report is shrouded in secrecy, unconfirmed facts, and many quotes from anonymous sources.
But this latest news has some key takeaways that, if true, paint a clearer picture of Apple’s autonomous driving plans, and leave many more unanswered questions about the future of the company.
Building the Apple Car
Apple’s autonomous car will reportedly be made at Kia’s West Point, Georgia assembly plant in 2024. But “people familiar with the Apple-Hyundai-Kia talks say the eventual launch could be delayed,” according to CNBC. And Apple is also in talks with other automakers, so the whole deal could fall apart or Hyundai could become one of several companies that will make the Apple Car.
Hyundai is definitely a good candidate for the task. The Georgia facility has the capacity to deliver up to 100,000 vehicles in the first year, according to a source who spoke with The Wall Street Journal.
Aside from capacity, Hyundai also has a lot of experience in both electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles. The automaker already has a joint venture with automotive technology company Aptiv to develop and test autonomous vehicles and a robotaxi service. Hyundai also made the high-profile acquisition of robotics company Boston Dynamics last year, putting it at the helm of a company that is highly talented and experienced in computer vision and mobility.
On the other hand, Hyundai would benefit from a deal said to be worth $ 3 billion, and could also have access to Apple’s expertise in artificial intelligence, battery technology, and lidars.
The only thing that makes the deal risky for Hyundai is Apple’s requirement to have full control of the hardware and software of the manufactured car. This has made Hyundai a bit reluctant to close the deal and become an Apple contract manufacturer. According to an anonymous Hyundai executive who spoke to Reuters in late January, “We are not a company that makes cars for third parties.”
Another executive said such a deal would effectively make Hyundai the Foxconn of Apple Car. Foxconn, which you may not have heard of, is one of several companies that make Apple iPhones. Foxconn does not sell phones. Lease your supply chain and manufacturing capacity. Hyundai, on the other hand, is an automobile manufacturer. It will have a conflict of interest with a burgeoning Apple Car that would undermine its own plans to become a leader in electric and autonomous vehicles.
In the long term, the two companies will go on a collision course. This could cause the deal to fall apart. Alternatively, Apple could decide to change the Apple Car into an Apple-Hyundai joint venture, which would be the first time for the tech company, which has a penchant for maintaining a total monopoly on all its hardware and software. Or, if the Apple Car business turns out to be very serious and promising, Apple might consider acquiring or merging with Hyundai or another automaker. This would mark an even bigger change for Apple and the technology industry in general, which has been gradually invading all sectors.
Autonomous driving technology
A person who spoke to CNBC said: “The first Apple Cars will not be designed to have a driver.” This is in contrast to the strategy of most other companies, whose autonomous cars still have a steering wheel and driver’s seat.
In a way, it makes sense for Apple to develop a fully autonomous vehicle, also called a Level 5 autonomous car. Current autonomous car systems are Level 3, which means that the car can be driven only under some conditions, and the human driver you must be alert and take control whenever the AI fails. The problem with level 3 is that it is an incomplete technology. All companies that work on level 3 autonomous cars also have backup drivers sitting behind the wheel, ready to jump in and take control when the AI runs into a situation it can’t handle.
But Level 3 autonomous driving is a disaster because the lines between human driving and autonomous driving are blurred. Human drivers tend to get distracted when the AI drives the car and they don’t react quickly enough, which can lead to fatal incidents.
By becoming completely autonomous, Apple will avoid legal complications and liability for human error. But the problem is, we don’t know when and if we will achieve fully autonomous driving technology that is acceptable on public roads. There are technical, legal and social obstacles that must be overcome before we see driverless cars sharing the road with human drivers.
Apple knows it too. “These will be autonomous electric vehicles designed to operate without a driver and focused on the last mile,” the source told CNBC.
This means that the Apple Car is designed to be driven in specific areas where driving conditions are much more predictable and easier for artificial intelligence systems to handle. But then, it wouldn’t make sense for consumers to own an Apple Car, because they couldn’t use it to drive to work, home, or to go on vacation. Instead, Apple would have to set up its own robotaxi service in select areas or partner with another company that does. In any case, it would mark another major change for Apple, whose long-standing business model has been to sell its products and services directly to consumers.
How will Apple train its AI models?
The main artificial intelligence technology used in autonomous vehicles is deep learning. Along with lidars, radars, and other sensors, deep learning models allow self-driving cars to make sense of their surroundings. However, the problem with deep learning is that you need a large amount of data in different road, light, and weather conditions.
Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, and other autonomous car companies have racked up millions of miles with vehicles sporting their gear and software. Tesla, which has integrated its autonomous driving technology into its vehicles, is collecting training data from hundreds of thousands of cars it has sold to consumers.
Apple, on the other hand, doesn’t have a fraction of the data that other companies have collected. Its last registered autonomous driving program, dating back to 2019, only logged about 7,500 miles on California roads.
So unless we see a breakthrough in artificial intelligence and autonomous driving technology, Apple will have to overcome a huge data breach before it can compete with other players in the industry. And since he plans to go straight to autonomy level 5, it is unclear how he will overcome this gap.
One possibility will be for Apple to acquire another self-driving car startup and appropriate its data and expertise. But all the top candidates have already been captured by other big tech or auto companies. Another would be to get more closely involved with Hyundai’s autonomous driving program. But that would weaken Apple’s position as the sole owner of the Apple Car.
Finally, Apple could simply scrap the driverless car plan and shift to Tesla’s strategy, developing a human-powered electric vehicle that has the infrastructure for autonomous driving capabilities in the future. As Apple sells more cars and collects more data, it will be able to develop and implement autonomous car features for its customers.
As is the case with any new Apple product, there are too many yes. Apple will continue to monitor its plans and change them as the market develops. And we won’t know for sure what the Apple Car will look like until we see it.
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