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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) – Suddenly, Ethiopia appears on the brink of civil war, threatening the stability of one of the world’s most strategic regions, the Horn of Africa, and the fracture of one of the most powerful and populous countries in Africa.
But the crisis in Ethiopia, a key US security ally, has been building up for months, and “it’s been like watching a train accident in slow motion,” Dino Mahtani of the International Crisis Group said this week. Now Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last year for sweeping political reforms, faces the gravest consequences yet of recent power shifts in the country.
These are the key reasons for the international alarm:
WHAT JUST HAPPENED?
Two things happened early Wednesday morning: Communications were cut off in Ethiopia’s heavily armed northern Tigray region, and Abiy announced that it had ordered troops to respond to an alleged deadly attack by Tigray forces on a military base. there. Both sides have accused each other of starting the fight.
And they both stepped up the pressure Thursday night. Ethiopia’s military said it was deploying troops from across the country to Tigray, and the Tigray leader alleged that fighter jets had bombed parts of the regional capital. “We are ready to be martyrs,” he said. Casualties have been reported on both sides.
Some experts have compared the confrontation to an interstate war, with two large, well-trained forces and little sign of backing down. Ethiopia is one of the best-armed nations in Africa, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front dominated Ethiopia’s army and government before Abiy took office in 2018. It has a lot of experience in border war conflicts from years of Ethiopia with Eritrea, next to the Tigray. region, and the International Crisis Group estimates that the TPLF paramilitary force and local militia have about 250,000 troops.
With communications still open, it is difficult to verify the account of events on the ground by either party.
HOW DO WE GET HERE?
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition named Abiy Prime Minister in 2018 to help quell months of anti-government protests, and he quickly won praise, and the Nobel, for opening up political space and curbing repressive measures in the country of some 110 million. people and dozens of ethnic groups. groups. But the TPLF felt increasingly marginalized and withdrew from the ruling coalition last year.
The TPLF opposes Ethiopia’s delayed election, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and Abiy’s long time in office. In September, the Tigray region voted in a local election that the Ethiopian federal government called illegal. Subsequently, the federal government decided to divert funds from the TPLF executive to local governments, angering regional leaders.
On Monday, Tigray leader Debretsion Gebremichael warned that a bloody conflict could break out.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN NOW?
The conflict could spread to other parts of Ethiopia, where some regions have been calling for more autonomy, and deadly ethnic violence has prompted the federal government to reinstate measures, including the arrest of critics.
Addressing those fears, Ethiopian Army Deputy Chief Birhanu Jula said of Tigray on Thursday night: “The war will end there.”
Some governments and experts are urgently calling for a dialogue on Tigray, but a Western diplomat in the capital Addis Ababa says that “the message from the Ethiopians is that if you talk about dialogue, you equate the two sides, but ‘this It’s a government, that’s a renegade group. ‘ Ethiopia’s proposed goal is to crush the TPLF, the diplomat said on condition of anonymity, and “if I say I’m going to crush you, then is there really room for negotiation?”
The TPLF before the clashes said it is not interested in negotiating with the federal government and has sought the release of the detained leaders as a precondition for the talks. There must be an inclusive dialogue, observers say, but a statement Thursday night by a panel of former US diplomats and military experts from the US Institute of Peace warned that it will not get very far “as many of the most prominent political leaders of the country remain in prison. ”
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN BEYOND ETHIOPIA?
Few regions are more vulnerable than the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s neighbors include Somalia (Ethiopian forces have reportedly begun to withdraw from that country to return home) and Sudan, which faces its own huge political transition. Neighboring Eritrea has shown few signs of openness after making its peace with Ethiopia in 2018, and its government and Tigray’s are not getting along.
A region in which Abiy has played a high-profile peacemaker role is now at risk.
Observers warn that a conflict could affect these countries and others not far from Africa’s most strategic military outpost, tiny Djibouti, where several global powers, including the United States and China, have their only military bases on the continent. The Horn of Africa is also just a short water crossing from Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula.
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