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Illustration by Elias Stein
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We are almost there. Investors anticipate the arrival of the first generation of
Apple
5G iPhones for years, and the big day: Oct. 13 – almost there.
The basics were leaked months ago: four new 5G-capable models, plus perhaps a few other hardware announcements. However, the really interesting questions cannot be answered right away, particularly whether the new phones will power a “supercycle” like the iPhone 6 launch in 2014. The bulls think so. But global economic weakness and reasonable doubts about whether 5G wireless will dramatically change the consumer experience could affect.
German bankis
Jeriel Ong set out his expectations in a research note. Based on previous releases, he estimates that the new phones could go on sale the weekend of October 23-25. That would provide 10 weeks of sales in the December quarter, but only one week of sales before Apple announces earnings for the September quarter on October 29, making it difficult to provide guidance. (Apple has not offered guidance since the pandemic began.)
Ong notes that investors are expecting two iPhone 12 models and two iPhone 12 Pro models, with screen sizes of 5.4 inches, two 6.1 inches and 6.7 inches. The two high-end versions will have three rear cameras and a 3-D lidar sensor “that could have augmented reality applications and support new games and use cases.” The two lower-end iPhones will carry two rear cameras. All new phones should provide 5G connectivity. He also expects AirPods Studio earbuds to launch soon, and possibly details on Arm processor-based Macs and discounted service packages for new iPhone buyers.
Next week
Monday 10/12
US Bond Markets They are closed in celebration of Columbus Day, while Canadian exchanges are closed for Thanksgiving.
Annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank meet virtually this year. The conference runs throughout the week.
Tuesday 10/13
Third quarter earnings season begins with reports from
Citigroup
Y
JPMorgan Chase
—Two of the four largest US banks by assets. The others in the top four,
Bank of America
Y
Wells fargo,
report on Wednesday.
Black rock,
Delta airlines,
Fastenal,
First Republic Bank,
and Johnson & Johnson report quarterly results.
The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for September. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 100.9, slightly above August’s 100.2.
The Labor Office Statistics publish the consumer price index for September. Expectations are for a 1.4% year-on-year increase in the CPI, ahead of the 1.3% increase in August. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 1.8%, roughly in line with the August data.
Wednesday 10/14
Goldman Sachs Group,
PNC Financial Services Group,
United Airlines Holdings,
UnitedHealth Group,
and US Bancorp report earnings.
The BLS releases the producer price index for September. Economists are forecasting a 0.2% rally month-over-month, and the core PPI is also up 0.2%. This compares with increases of 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, in August.
Medtronic
hosts its biennial meeting of investors and analysts. Speakers will include the firm’s CEO, Geoff Martha.
Thursday 10/15
Intuitive surgical,
Morgan stanley,
Truist Financial,
and the Walgreens Boots Alliance hold conference calls to discuss the quarterly results.
The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10. Initial requests were 840,000 last week, the lowest level since mid-March.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus estimate is for a reading of 12, down from the September 17 figure.
Friday 10/16
Bank of New York Mellon,
Citizens Financial Group,
JB Hunt Transportation Services,
South Kansas City,
Schlumberger,
State street,
Y
VF Corp.
report earnings.
The University of Michigan publishes its Consumer Sentiment Index for October. Economists are forecasting a reading of 80.8, similar to September’s 80.2.
The census office reports retail sales data for September. Expectations are for a 0.8% monthly increase in consumer spending, to $ 542 billion. Excluding automobiles, sales are forecast to rise 0.3%, slower than 0.7% in August.
Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]
