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Coming to power on a wave of optimism in April 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was cautiously viewed at the time as a remedy to decades of effective one-party rule with its promised program of radical reform.
But now, as nearly two weeks of deadly fighting intensify between the federal government and a defiant northern leadership that for decades dominated Ethiopia’s politics, the country’s future is balanced on the razor’s edge.
The fighting in the northern Tigray region began almost as soon as Abiy took office after massive protests forced Hailemariam Desalegn, the country’s embattled Prime Minister and chairman of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition of Tigray-led four-party government, resign in February 2018.
After weeks of secret negotiations within the EPRDF, it is believed that Abiy overcame opposition from the formerly dominant Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to win the EPRDF presidency and become, at age 41, the youngest leader of the country. Africa and the first from Ethiopia in the Oromia region.
The appointment of Abiy, the founder of the country’s Information Network and Security Agency, a former science and technology minister and a former army lieutenant colonel, was seen as crucial to quelling unrest among the Oromo, the ethnic group behind the years of anti-government protests that resulted in thousands of deaths.
“There were many problems before Abiy became prime minister, the main one being the government’s inability to deliver on development promises,” said Daniel Mulugeta, an Ethiopia expert at the London School of Oriental and African Studies. “Abiy capitalized on that political playing field. He promised to heal divisions in the country and fight corruption and emerged as a beacon of hope for all Ethiopians at that time. “
William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said that “it is important to understand that the EPRDF admitted that the game was over and that it could not crush this protest movement in its usual way, and therefore a process of reform and political liberalization began before Abiy Ahmed took office ”.
The first signs were of apparent progress, with the new prime minister accelerating the reform measures announced in the final days of his predecessor’s rule. Upon taking office, Abiy lifted Ethiopia’s state of emergency, ordered the release of prisoners, and unblocked hundreds of websites and television channels, while his decision to secure peace with neighboring Eritrea awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize. in 2019.
Other reforms to liberalize the telecommunications sector, boost digital investment, and improve media, human rights and counter-terrorism laws have also earned him widespread praise.
However, those economic plans have yet to bear fruit for the ethnically diverse country of 110 million people, Africa’s second-most populous, and analysts say Abiy’s support has begun to wane amid rising ethnic tensions. persistent poverty and the recent effects of devastating floods. an invasion of locusts and the coronavirus pandemic.
“When it comes to critical mass, it is losing support,” Mulugeta said. “Abiy doesn’t seem to have a very clear political agenda. He prefers quick and instant development projects that his followers like. It is pragmatic. What you see in him is what you see in populist leaders like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump. “
‘Moment of reckoning’
To complicate matters, in the year since Abiy became a Nobel laureate, hundreds of Ethiopians have died in violent clashes with the security forces or between Ethiopia’s various ethnic groups. In particular, the murder in June of prominent singer Hachalu Hundessa, an Oromo champion, sparked deadly protests. Meanwhile, thousands of politicians, opposition activists and anti-government protesters have been arrested.
“We thought he was going to be a unifying figure for a deeply fractured society,” said Tsedale Lemma, editor-in-chief of Addis Standard, an Ethiopian English-language publication. “But it has been one deadly decision after another. He is not a peacemaker and has been very asymmetrical. “
But some argue that the crackdown is in part the result of Abiy’s earlier moves to open up and that by unleashing Ethiopian opposition and rebel groups, long-repressed rivalries have been sparking in regions like Amhara, Oromia and Tigray.
“He tried to take a centrist position, moving away from extremist political positions,” said Asnake Kefale, assistant professor of political science at Addis Ababa University. “The ethnonationalists were at one end of the spectrum and the pan-Ethiopians at the other. But the ethno-nationalists accused him of attacking them and the problems began. “
Among those who accused Abiy of unjustly attacking them was the TPLF, as Abiy began to purge the Tigrayans of senior leadership positions, including in the military and security services, after taking power. The TPLF then withdrew from the EPRDF after Abiy merged it into the newly formed Prosperity Party.
Tensions reached a fever pitch when Abiy postponed national elections until next year due to the pandemic and Tigray held its own local vote in September despite being deemed illegal by the Addis Ababa central government.
Abiy responded by declaring a state of emergency and on November 4 launched a military operation in Tigray following an alleged attack on a federal army base. Last week Amnesty International said dozens of civilians were killed in a “massacre” in Tigray that witnesses attributed to the forces supporting the TPLF and that thousands have since fled to Sudan amid the escalating humanitarian disaster.
Opinion is divided on the extent to which Abiy is guilty of the escalation of violence in Tigray. “In my opinion, for six to seven months Abiy has been tolerant and has tried to avoid military confrontation,” said Kefale of Addis Ababa University.
But other analysts are less convinced. “This is not all due to the prime minister, in any way, but we can see aspects that have not been handled that well,” said Davison of the ICG. “Abiy seems to rely on her own judgment rather than lengthy decision-making processes. Perhaps that does not lend itself to a more pluralistic approach to the government that would mark a sea change for Ethiopia. “
Critics argue that to heal the huge divisions across the country, Abiy must change his governing style to be more participatory and moderate his efforts to centralize. “This is a time of reckoning,” said Lemma of the Addis Standard. “You need to facilitate an inclusive dialogue. This is how a government should act with its mandate ”.
What is certain is that Abiy’s failure to promote peace in the country raises questions about Ethiopia’s ability to prosper economically and make a peaceful transition to democracy in the way some had dreamed of two and a half years ago.
“The Tigray conflict is going to complicate the future of the country,” said Mulugeta of SOAS. “The war is likely to increase the power of Abiy and create further polarization in the country. My concern is that this could create a humanitarian catastrophe. “
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