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The man who will become Japan’s next prime minister is the son of strawberry farmers, with an unassuming personality and a penchant for exceeding the expectations that others have of him.
Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, easily won a leadership vote from members of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on Monday, almost assuring that he will succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, unexpectedly announced last month that he would be stepping down due to health problems.
Although he had served as Abe’s lieutenant for the past eight years, Suga, 71, was not initially seen as the main contender to replace him.
Self-made politician
Suga does not come from a political dynasty and does not belong to any faction of the party, whose bosses play an important role in determining the leaders of the PLD.
In his comments after winning the vote on Monday, Suga highlighted his reputation as a self-made politician.
“I was born the eldest son of a farmer in Akita,” Suga said. “Without any knowledge or blood ties, I launched myself into the world of politics, starting from scratch – and I have been able to become a leader of the PLD, with all its traditions and history.”
“I will dedicate everything to working for Japan and its citizens,” he added.
After growing up in rural Akita prefecture, Suga began his rise in politics as a local assemblyman. He eventually became a close confidant of Abe, who had a first term as prime minister in 2006-2007. When Abe returned to being prime minister in 2012, Suga became chief cabinet secretary, a role that combines the functions of government spokesman and chief of staff.
Although he was frequently quoted in the media, Suga earned a reputation for low-key demeanor that garnered little attention as a national political figure. One exception was in 2019, when Suga gained notoriety, as well as the nickname “Uncle Reiwa,” after revealing the name of Japan’s new imperial era.
Coalition builder
Although seen as a man of few words who rarely deviates from script, Suga has a reputation for excelling at alliance building, which helps explain why LDP factions quickly rallied around him following the announcement of Abe’s resignation.
Suga is “highly regarded for his skillful handling of Japan’s complex bureaucracies,” said Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
In the end, Suga garnered around 70 percent of the votes of lawmakers and representatives of the LDP party on Monday, easily defeating former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida.
Economic continuity
As expected, Suga told reporters on Monday that he will “inherit and facilitate” many of Abe’s policies.
Suga has already said that he will continue Abe’s “Abenomics” strategy, which employed a policy of making money cheap and readily available, fiscal stimulus through public spending, and other structural economic reforms.
Those policies were meant to boost Japan’s stagnant economy, which faces deflation, a rapidly aging population and low birth rates. The country’s economic challenges have intensified due to the trade war between the United States and China, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic.
Foreign policy
In foreign policy, Suga may also represent a small change from Abe.
He has indicated that he will continue to push for a revision of Japan’s pacifist constitution, allowing the country to assume a greater role in world affairs.
Suga has also vowed not to back down on China, possibly continuing Abe’s policy of intensifying regional efforts to counter Beijing.
In comments earlier this month, Suga said he would meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un without preconditions, to “make a breakthrough” on the issue of the Japanese kidnapped by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.
Whats Next?
Suga is almost certain to become prime minister when parliament votes on Wednesday, as the LDP controls the majority of seats in Japan’s lower house.
Suga is currently scheduled to serve the remainder of Abe’s term until September 2021. But many speculate that he will soon call elections to consolidate his power and extend his term.
