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TOKYO
A challenging year awaits Yoshihide Suga, who has been elected Japanese prime minister in the shadow of a new period of domestic and foreign policy difficulties coupled with calls for early elections.
The leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Suga, was elected the country’s new prime minister in an extraordinary session held in the PLD-dominated parliament.
Suga received 314 votes in a session of the lower house of Parliament and 142 in the upper house, and he will serve as prime minister until the general election in September 2021.
He was a government spokesman for outgoing Prime Minister Abe Shinzo for nearly eight years and was also elected party leader with strong support.
National policy issues, such as constitutional amendments, missile batteries, and the organization of the Olympics postponed without any problem, remain hot topics in Japan.
In foreign policy, unresolved issues with North Korea and Russia, as well as the uncertain future of China’s balancing policy will be among the diplomatic tests facing the new cabinet.
Economy, birth rate, constitutional change
According to information compiled by the Anadolu Agency correspondent, in the short term, the government will seek to reactivate the economy, which suffers under epidemic conditions, keeping the virus under control.
The insufficiency of the support packages of 2.2 trillion dollars granted during the Abe period for the reactivation of the economy will lead the government to seek new packages.
In the long term, the new administration, which will have to find a solution to the decline in the birth rate every year, will face the question of maintaining stable relations with neighboring countries.
Suga will continue the efforts of outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to change the “non-aggression” article of the 1947 pacifist constitution.
Batteries, North Korea, Russia and China
Suga will also face an unresolved problem from the Abe era: bringing back the Japanese citizens that North Korea detained in the 1970s and 1980s.
The problem of the islands is expected to be resolved, and negotiation with Russia for a peace agreement that has yet to be signed after World War II is expected.
The abandonment of the plan to deploy US-made Aegis Ashore batteries in Akita and Yamaguchi states will push Suga to seek new options.
A possible change in the US presidency in the November elections could jeopardize Japan’s balancing diplomacy between the United States and China.
New cabinet
In Suga’s cabinet, eight ministers, including names Abe trusted, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, retained their current positions.
Former Health Minister Katsunobu Kato was appointed Chief Cabinet Secretary and Government Spokesperson, and outgoing Defense Minister Taro Kono was appointed Minister in charge of administrative reforms.
Former Senior Vice President of the Foreign Ministry, Nobuo Kishi, also the brother of the outgoing prime minister, was appointed to fill the key position that Kono vacated.
Yasutoshi Nishimura was appointed Minister in charge of economic revitalization and the government’s response to the coronavirus, while Shinjiro Koizumi, 39, was appointed Minister of the Environment, the only cabinet member under the age of 50.
The women in the cabinet are the Minister of Justice, Yoko Kamikawa, and the Minister for the Olympic and Paralympic Games in Tokyo, Seiko Hashimoto, who is also the minister in charge of women’s empowerment and gender equality.
Three-quarters of the new cabinet, whose average age is 60, served in previous administrations, which was seen as a sign that Abe’s policies would largely continue.
Possibility of early elections
The fact that Suga, who was replaced by an internal party election, and did not come to power with an ordinary general election, brought up the anticipated electoral debates in the country.
Speaking to the local Kyodo news agency, Hitoshi Komiya, a political historian at Aoyama Gakuin University in the capital Tokyo, said that while Suga was endorsed by most factions within the party in leadership elections, he himself did not It belongs to no faction, and so it is not in an infallible position.
“People are attracted when you have power, but it is not clear if they will continue to offer support,” Komiya was quoted as saying. “Follow [the election], then everyone will greet Suga, giving him power. “
Yu Uchiyama, a political scientist at the University of Tokyo, said that given the main opposition force, the Democratic Constitutional Party of Japan, was just formed on Tuesday and that the rate of support for a new government is usually high at first, the best moment. for an early election it may be next month, according to Kyodo.
Suga previously said that preventing the spread of the new coronavirus should take priority in any decision to call an early election.
Taro Kono, minister of administrative reform in Suga’s cabinet, said he expects an early general election in October, noting that there is a “very small window” for it, given the upcoming US presidential election in November and that Japan needs to be prepared. for the Tokyo Olympics in the summer of next year, Kyodo reported.
Unsuccessful policies
Policy experts spoke to Anadolu Agency about the expectations and difficulties of the Suga era.
Sota Kato of the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research said Abe’s persistent domestic and foreign policies behind the scenes have not come to fruition.
“The prime minister will not be as dominant a political figure as Abe. There will be lower house elections in a year, and it remains to be seen whether the PLD can retain its strong majority,” Kato said.
“However, Suga has no experience in foreign policy, so it is not known how effective he will be in international relations. It is difficult to imagine Suga establishing the kind of personal relationship that Abe was able to build with other world leaders, in particular. [US President] Donald Trump, “he added.
“The immediate challenge will be to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 has devastated Japan’s economy and put great pressure on fiscal resources, so rebuilding the economy will be the next priority,” he said.
The coordinator of the Department of International Relations at Temple University, based in Japan, James Brown, said that the “Abenomics” program – economic policies that Abe championed – did not revive the economy and the reforms were half-hearted.
“Furthermore, their attempts to solve the territorial problem with Russia and the abduction problem with North Korea led to nothing. Many will look back on the Abe era as a time of missed opportunities,” Brown added.
“Japan would benefit from a bold leader, who is willing to shake up the system and introduce bold reforms. Otherwise, Japan’s economy will continue its mediocre performance,” he also said.
“Suga will offer continuity with Abe’s administration as he has served as chief cabinet secretary since Abe returned to office in December 2012.”
“However the [Suga] You are unlikely to get much public support. This is because it does not represent a real change from Abe’s prime minister position, “Brown explained.
“He is also relatively older, 71 years old, and a very poor communicator. If he becomes prime minister, he probably won’t last long,” he added.
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