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South Africa’s relatively low death rate from Covid-19 is difficult to explain. While we may still be lucky that our population is more resistant to infection than elsewhere, and a relatively small larger population will be helpful, it is too soon to know.
South Africa has experienced the Covid-19 epidemic quite differently than many other countries, and there is much interest and speculation as to why this might be the case. It appears to be different in two ways. First, the total number of infections presenting with disease or discovered through limited community testing is relatively low at this time (4,361 on April 25). Compared to the United Kingdom, or to some comparable developing countries, such as Brazil and Mexico, there are far fewer cases per million population, and South Africa is in the company of countries such as Finland, Egypt and Argentina.
The first explanation for these lower rates is simply that the initial infectious cases only reached South Africa a month or more after they started in the United Kingdom and the United States. One way to mark the “take-off” point would be the date the number of cases exceeded 100. In SA that was March 18. At…
