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March 12, 2021
CAIRO – A few days after Egypt and Sudan signed a military cooperation agreement on March 2, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi visited Khartoum on March 6, in a move that conveyed political and security messages against the decision of Ethiopia from filling the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). reservoir without consulting Egypt and Sudan.
Sisi had not visited Khartoum since the Sudanese revolution and the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. Official and diplomatic relations between the two countries had recently gained momentum, culminating in the military cooperation agreement. The Egyptian army chief of staff, Lieutenant General Mohamed Farid, who arrived in Khartoum on March 2, described the agreement as “achieving an unprecedented level of military cooperation … at a time when Egypt and Sudan face challenges. common and multiple threats to the national security of the two countries. ”
Speaking at a press conference after his March 6 meeting with Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Sisi expressed his country’s discontent with Ethiopian positions regarding GERD and attempts to control the waters of the Nile, saying: “We reject any approach that seeks to impose a status quo and extend control over the Blue Nile through unilateral measures that do not take into account the interests and rights of the two downstream countries”, highlighting that the GERD affects the vital interests of Egypt and Sudan.
Speaking about the possibility of resuming the GERD negotiations, Sisi said: “We discussed ways to get the negotiations back on track by forming an international quartet made up of the United States, United Nations, European Union and African Union. [AU] mediate the negotiation process ”, noting that it is imperative to reach a fair, balanced and legally binding agreement regarding the completion and operation of the GERD before the next flood season.
During a March 5 call between Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, Shoukry highlighted his country’s support for a Sudanese proposal to expand the pool of mediators in the negotiations. of the ERGE through an international quartet from the efforts of the UA. reconciling the three countries and formulating an agreement that would achieve the interests of all had failed.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia began to enforce a fait accompli policy and began the first phase of filling the GERD in July 2020, announcing its intention to complete the second phase by storing 13 billion cubic meters of flood water next month. of July.
In a meeting with armed forces leaders, officers and soldiers during an Egyptian army educational symposium on the occasion of Martyr’s Day on March 9, Sisi reiterated Egypt’s interest in resolving any outstanding issues with Ethiopia through negotiations, saying : “We have always remained calm without showing emotion, pretense or antagonism and we insist on resuming negotiations.”
He continued: “These negotiations will certainly come to an end and we must reach a binding legal agreement.”
An Egyptian government source familiar with the Nile basin archive told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity: “Use members of the international quartet as mediators rather than observers. [in the GERD negotiations] it has become an Egyptian-Sudanese condition to resume negotiations. Many scenarios [which he did not name] It may happen if Ethiopia refuses to accept the international quartet mechanism and resumes negotiations in good faith to reach a binding legal agreement on GERD in a way that secures the strategic interests of Egypt and Sudan in the waters of the Nile and preserves the Ethiopia’s rights to generate electricity. ”
Article 10 of the Declaration of Principles signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in March 2015 stipulates that the three countries agree to resolve any dispute through talks or negotiations and can request mediation. However, since Egypt raised the dispute with Ethiopia to the UN Security Council in June 2020, AU-mediated negotiations failed to achieve any progress for six months on pending legal issues in terms of reaching a binding agreement that ensure the protection of the Egyptians. -Sudan’s water security from any future Ethiopia action, be it in the GERD or any other water project on the Blue Nile.
Ethiopia refused to resume negotiations through any international mediator other than the AU, as Ethiopian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Dina Mufti revealed in a statement on March 9, saying: “Resolving outstanding issues will not requires other mediators. This tendency to adhere to colonial-era agreements in the name of reaching binding agreements is unacceptable. ”
Observers believe that joint Egyptian-Sudanese coordination and positions will be the strongest card to confront Ethiopian unilateral positions, especially with increased Egyptian-Sudanese cooperation in the military field at a time when Sudan faces another security crisis with Ethiopia. in the al-Fashqa region in the east. Sudan, where Ethiopian armed groups are trying to gain control with the help of the Ethiopian government.
Sayed Fleifel, professor of African studies at Cairo University, told Al-Monitor: “Sisi’s visit to Sudan was strategic, especially in the context of political tension with Ethiopia over GERD on the one hand and the tension in the Sudanese- Ethiopian Borders on the other. Cairo is well aware of the strategic importance of Sudan, which has always been a political supporter of Egypt ”.
Speaking about military cooperation, Fleifel noted: “There has always been continuous coordination [between Egypt and Sudan]; after 1967 [Arab-Israeli War and the Egyptian military defeat], all Egyptian military and air colleges moved to Khartoum, and new army recruits were trained in Sudan, while Sudanese forces participated alongside Egypt in the October War. [also known as Yom Kippur War in 1973]. “
Major General Nasr Salem, a retired Military Intelligence Service officer and former adviser to the Nasser Military Academy, told Al-Monitor: “Cooperation with Sudan in the military field and others will strengthen Egypt’s negotiating positions with Ethiopia. to reach a policy and technical solution before the second filling in July, especially since Ethiopia now faces Egypt and Sudan together. “
He added: “There has been no coordination in positions between Egypt and Sudan throughout the negotiations with Ethiopia on GERD since 2012. Without a doubt, the [current] The unified Egyptian-Sudanese position will be stronger in the face of any unilateral action by Ethiopia ”.
Salem added: “Egypt strongly rejects any unilateral action by Ethiopia, and we hope that any development will be in the interest of the Nile Basin countries without having to take any further action, as Cairo is still grappling with this conflict through diplomatic and legal solutions. “
As ties between Egypt and Sudan gain momentum, questions remain about the robustness of the tools the two countries possess to persuade Ethiopia not to unilaterally remove water from the Nile River and to halt preparations for the second. filled until an agreement is reached. provided that it protects the two downstream countries and ensures the coordination and joint management of the waters of the Blue Nile with trust and good faith.
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