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The Guardian
NFL conference championship picks: Brady v Rodgers and a shock from the Chiefs
Two decorated veterans square off at Lambeau Field, while the best of the next generation play in Kansas City. Who makes it to the Super Bowl? Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers met earlier this season and the Buccaneers emerged as the victors. Photo: Mark LoMoglio / AP Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers Sunday, 3.05pm ET / 8.05pm GMT What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Surprisingly for two quarterbacks who have ruled the NFL for much of the century, there is no a lot of history between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers – this will be only their fourth match as starters. Brady won his previous game, a 38-10 beating in Week 6 of this season, when the defense hounded Rodgers all day and sacked him five times. However, Rodgers, who has been near perfect since then, is unlikely to be bullied again. So Tampa Bay will have to beat the Packers in a firefight, hoping their formidable offensive weapons click together. That will put pressure on Bucs backup point guard Aaron Stinnie, who made his first NFL start against the Saints last week (and did pretty well). What the Packers must do to win: Like the Buccaneers, the Packers have a weakened offensive line. He held up pretty well against the best defense in the league, the Rams, last week, but Los Angeles’ biggest threat, Aaron Donald, was hampered by a rib injury. Rodgers has been so good this year that it’s hard to see him getting outdone by the Buccaneers if he has enough protection. Some have argued that icy Lambeau Field will give the Packers a huge advantage over a warm-weather team like Tampa Bay. But Tom Brady played a lot of games in the New England winter and that seemed to work out well for him. Key player: Rob Gronkowski, tight end, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Gronk’s best days are long gone and he is no longer the unstoppable force he was a few years ago. So his importance in this game lies not so much in his abilities as in who he is up against. If the Packers have an obvious weakness, they are his linebackers. Look for Brady to return to a family safety blanket and find Gronk in the middle of the field as this game progresses. Prediction: Packers. The Buccaneers struggled to shake Washington 7-9 in the wild-card round and were helped by a series of turnovers by Drew Brees against the Saints last week. Brady and his new teammates are solidifying much more than they did at the start of the season, but they are not yet the threat they should be, given their talents. I don’t think they are at the level where they can beat Rodgers and Davante Adams this time. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, 6.40 pm ET / 11.40 pm GMT Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP of the Super Bowl. Photo: Jason Behnken / AP What the Bills need to do to win: The Chiefs can do so much damage, so fast, through the air with the likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill encouraging them to go to the running game, perhaps by not packing the box is an option. Josh Allen has evolved beyond recognition in a short space of time, in part due to the variety of weapons he has, from the almost impossible to cover Stefon Diggs to Cole Beasley and tight end Dawson Knox. The Bills should maintain that chemistry on Sunday. What the Chiefs must do to win: As mentioned above, Allen’s progress this season has been extraordinary and he is no longer the time-wasting machine that he was. But he still makes mistakes and the outstanding defensive talents of the Chiefs, be it Tyrann Matthieu or Chris Jones, are capable of forcing him to make mistakes. If the Bills can get the Chiefs to turn to the running game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s physical condition, returning from injury, could be revealing. Key Player: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, making him the most important player in whatever game he plays. But its impact on Sunday feels particularly revealing. Mahomes was forced out of last week’s win over the Browns due to a concussion, and has been limited in practice, but will almost certainly start. The question is which version of Mahomes he plays. The concussion doesn’t appear to have been too damaging (at least in the short term) but more concerning for the Chiefs is the fact that Mahomes also suffers from a turf toe. Mahomes isn’t Lamar Jackson, he won’t burn you out for 50 yards, but his mobility and ability to beat a rush is an important part of his game. Prediction: invoices. A fully fit Mahomes beats Allen 90% of the time. But a limited Mahomes, who has been very good rather than great in his recent games, is a different proposition. The lingering effects of the concussion and his reduced mobility will leave this to the Bills … fair.
