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Lots of chickens came home to sleep this year. The COVID-19 pandemic was not a random bolt of lightning out of nowhere, but rather a man-made “natural” disaster, displaying many of our bad habits and dangerous, indeed deadly practices.
After all, the transmission of the coronavirus from bats to humans was the product of massive urbanization and destructive invasion of natural habitats, and its rapid spread was the result of over-industrialization, frenzied trade, and contemporary travel habits. Likewise, the inability of the world to come together to contain the crisis reflects the extent to which the capacity for governance lags behind hyperglobalization.
Many of these failures were evident before the virus hit, and in many countries people embraced nationalist and populist leaders who promised decisive action in a world that seemed out of control. But while this has been a difficult year, there are at least five reasons to look forward to 2021.
The first and most obvious reason is the defeat of US President Donald Trump. It’s a relief to be able to wake up in the morning without worrying about what the most powerful person in the world said on Twitter in his sleep. The United States will soon be in good hands again. In addition to making America more predictable and accountable, the victory of President-elect Joe Biden has important implications for democracies around the world.
Europe’s own Trumpians, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister and de facto ruler Jarosław Kaczyński, have already been orphaned by Trump’s political demise. As Europeans look to their own elections, in the Netherlands and Germany in 2021, and in France in 2022, populist parties will have less right to be channeling the tide of history. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a consummate political weather vane, is already changing with the new political winds. After the loss of Trump, he finally fired his populist Brexit guru Dominic Cummings, noting that he would be creating a new identity for the post-Trump world.
The second reason to be joyful is that COVID-19 vaccines are on the way. This will allow a gradual return to normalcy, and the way they were developed should reaffirm our support for international cooperation. It was very inspiring to see that the first vaccine came from BioNTech, a European Union funded company run by two German scientists of Turkish descent. Given the justified concerns about “vaccine nationalism,” it is important that people have seen that internationalism, not provincialism, is the way out of this and other global crises.
That brings me to the third reason for optimism: encouraging news on the climate front. As many commentators have pointed out, climate change could lead to an even bigger crisis than COVID-19. But following a massive 7% decrease In this year’s greenhouse gas emissions, at least we know what is possible. And now that governments have proven capable of spending whatever is necessary in an emergency, they will face mounting pressure to invest in the technologies necessary for a rapid transition to clean energy.
The fourth cause for joy is the return of faith in government. COVID-19 has reminded everyone how valuable a competent civil service can be. It has also drawn new attention to the need for redistribution. After the financial crisis of 2008, many expected the prevailing neoliberal orthodoxy to give way to social democracy and greater political control over the economy. Instead, we got bank bailouts and other glaring examples of “socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor.”
After a decade of painful austerity and the political upheaval it caused, governments are finally taking more responsibility for the public welfare. Major parties, including Democrats in the US, are pushing policies to support workers and the middle class, offering hope that structural inequality, which leaves many feeling “abandoned” (and therefore open to populist appeals) will eventually be addressed.
That brings us to the last reason to be joyful. The pandemic has prompted a reconsideration of the global system. Instead of unregulated hyperglobalization, many leading powers are looking for ways to reconcile an appetite for cheap products, advanced technologies, and other benefits of trade with greater control over internal affairs. Whether it is “decoupling” in the United States, “dual circulation” in China, or “strategic autonomy” in Europe, long-overdue political debates are now taking place.
In this case, I find the European conversation particularly encouraging, as it focuses on channeling the desire for greater control in a way that excludes self-defeating nationalism. The EU’s quest for sovereignty encompasses at least five areas (economic and financial issues, public health, digitization, climate policy and security), and Europeans have come a long way on all of them. The creation of a recovery fund of 750,000 million euros (915,000 million dollars) shows that countries like Germany are willing to cross their traditional red lines for the sake of solidarity.
Of course, it is too early to declare victory in any of our current battles. Biden will fight to rule a polarized country in the face of Republican resistance. Delivering vaccines around the world will be a huge logistical challenge. Competing great powers could still derail the climate agenda in the run-up to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in November. The threat of recession and new debt crises could exacerbate inequality, heralding a return to more toxic policies. The revival of the European dream will depend on the outcome of highly controversial national elections.
But as 2021 approaches, things are looking much better than a few months ago. Now we have at least five reasons to celebrate the New Year.
Editor’s Note: Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the opinions of The Reporter.
Contributed by Mark Leonard
