East Africa: Annus Horribilis – Why 2020 Was the Horn of Africa’s Worst Year



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An air of optimism greeted 2020, but it turned out to be the worst year in the Horn of Africa, and indeed the world’s, an annus horribilis. Many are happy that this “horrible year” has come to an end.

The year began with the tragic outbreak of the 2019-2020 desert locust invasion, the worst in 70 years in Kenya and the deadliest in 25 years in Ethiopia and Somalia, which has left in its wake debilitating food insecurity exacerbated by the crown bud. virus pandemic (Covid-19).

Linked to the effect of global warming and the impacts of climate change, the locust invasion occurred in the context of the resurgence of terrorism, which intensified insecurity in Africa.

Data from the African Center for the Study and Research of Terrorism indicates that terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab carried out an average of 190 attacks per month in 2020, resulting in a monthly average of 834 deaths.

This totals an estimated 2,280 attacks and more than 10,000 deaths during the year. In Kenya, the year began with Al-Shabaab’s pre-dawn attack on January 5, 2020 on Camp Simba used by US personnel along with an undisclosed number of Kenyan troops in Lamu County.

Iranian threats

The attack coincided with Iranian threats of retaliation to target US troops in response to the US drone strike near Baghdad International Airport that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani on January 3, although Al-Shabaab denied. any link between the two events.

The cup of nature’s wrath was seen once again following the confirmation of the first case of Covid-19 in Africa in February 2020. Since the beginning of March, cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia.

By December, the region recorded 289,210 cases and 5,514 deaths. Although COVID19 cases in Africa remain low (2,585,867 cases and 60,973 deaths compared to the global count of 80,191,630 cases and 1,756,884 deaths), the continent has borne the full brunt of the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic. .

The existential threat posed by the Covid-19 pandemic was compounded by the escalation of political violence in countries affected by the conflict. In Somalia, the epicenter of terrorism and insecurity in the Horn of Africa, security incidents totaled 235 at the end of January 2020.

In February and March, clashes between forces loyal to the federal government and Jubaland state allies displaced 56,000 people, killed at least 10 and threatened to export the crisis to the wider Horn of Africa.

The tensions reflect conflicting visions of power between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” and Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe on how Somalia’s political system should allocate resources and power.

Jubaland crisis

Ethiopia and Kenya, both part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), were caught up in this dispute, with Addis backing the Somali president and Nairobi backing Madobe. The war ended with a difficult deadlock, but the unfinished crisis in Jubaland casts a long shadow over the 2020/2021 parliamentary and presidential elections in Somalia.

The rise of ethno-nationalism inspired groupings that undermined the existing security consensus. In January 2020, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia proposed the formation of a new regional bloc known as the Horn of Africa Cooperation (HoAC), which alienated partners in the region and undermined the security efforts of other regional organizations such as the Authority. Intergovernmental Development (Igad), the African Union (AU) and the East African Reserve Force.

Humanitarian assistance

Tensions also increased between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River. The main disagreement is over the role the dam will play in mitigating droughts. Egypt, concerned that a drought may appear during the filling period, wants the filling to take place over a much longer period.

Despite efforts to silence weapons and establish lasting peace, the armed conflict remained Africa’s greatest challenge in 2020. The eruption of armed conflict between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Ethiopian state military units and Eritrea as of November 4, 2020, increased the number of active conflicts on the continent.