Explainer: South Africa’s Novel Coronavirus Strain: Are Concerns Justified?

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa has identified a new variant of the new coronavirus, which authorities believe is driving an increase in COVID-19 infections that could overwhelm its healthcare system.

Several countries, including the UK, which has found the mutant variant in South African-related cases, have banned flights from South Africa, disrupting holiday travel and frustrating tour operators.

WHAT IS THE NEW VARIANT?

The new variant, dubbed 501.V2, was discovered by a network of South African scientists who have been tracing the genetics of the SARS-COV-2 virus.

The variant appears to be focused on the southern and southeastern regions of the country and has been dominating the findings from samples collected since October, they say.

First identified in Nelson Mandela Bay, along the east coast of South Africa, it quickly spread to other districts of the Eastern Cape and to the provinces of the Western Cape and KwaZulu Natal (KZN).

Scientists say the variant is different from others circulating in South Africa because it has multiple mutations in the important “spike” protein that the virus uses to infect human cells.

It has also been associated with a higher viral load, which means a higher concentration of virus particles in the body of patients, possibly contributing to higher levels of transmission.

Between 80% and 90% of new cases in the country are carriers of the mutant variant, according to health authorities.

ARE THE CONCERNS JUSTIFIED?

All viruses, including the one that causes COVID-19, change over time and hundreds of variations of this virus have been identified around the world.

South African scientists say there is no clear evidence at this stage that this variant is associated with more serious disease or worse outcomes. However, it seems to spread faster than previous iterations.

“What has happened with the large number of infections that are growing very fast is that it has overwhelmed the healthcare system really quickly,” said Professor Tulio de Oliveira, director of the KZN Research Innovation and Sequence Platform (KRISP). , who helped perform genome sequencing in South African mutant variant. “And when that happens, we have a huge increase in mortality.”

The positivity rate, or the percentage of all coronavirus tests performed that are actually positive, stood at 26% as of Dec. 23, about double the average infection rate prior to December, when the virus showed signs of decline. .

In the first wave of infections, which peaked during the winter months between June and July, the positivity rate reached 27%.

“The rate of spread is much faster than the first wave and we will exceed the peak of the first wave in the coming days,” Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said on Wednesday.

IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE UK VARIANT?

The variants reported by South Africa and the United Kingdom share a common change in the spike protein that can make them more infectious. But they are different variants, and sequence analysis revealed that they originated separately, the World Health Organization said.

Dr Andrew Preston, reader of microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath, said: “The ‘South African’ variant is different from the UK variant, but both contain an unusually high number of mutations compared to other SARS lineages. CoV-2 “.

WILL COVID-19 VACCINES PROTECT AGAINST THIS VARIANT?

South African authorities say it is too early to say whether vaccines currently being rolled out in Britain and the United States, or other injections of COVID-19 in development, will protect against the new variant.

Vaccine developers including AstraZeneca, BioNTech, and Moderna Inc said this week that they hope their vaccines will still work against the UK variant.