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The dominant interpretation is that the crisis is rooted in a struggle over whether power should be in the center of Addis Ababa or distributed among the capitals of the ten regional states. In other words, should Ethiopia be a centralized federation of regions defined largely by geographic boundaries, or a more flexible confederation of national ethnic entities? Oligarchic interests are also at stake: in Ethiopia, positions in the party-state and personal enrichment, legal or illegal, are inseparable.
But the crisis is not purely of the here and now.
The Ethiopian empire was built in the second half of 19th century. His homeland was the northern highlands, his ‘colonies’ everywhere. The problems stemming from this legacy have never been fully resolved and it is still unclear what kind of state should be built on the remains of this empire that is capable of achieving legitimacy among its citizens.
These are problems that affect all of Ethiopia. Now they have turned into a war between the champions of the two rival visions: Abiy for the “centrists” and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) for the ethnic “confederalists”. However, of the two, Abiy’s personal stance has had a disproportionate impact.
Preaching Unity But Flying Alone, Abiy’s Ambition May Stop Ethiopia’s Transition
By Rene Lefort
None of the foreign officials who have met with the prime minister, none of the Ethiopian academics, researchers, experts or politicians who have worked closely with him or spoken with him extensively, have agreed to speak officially, out of fear of retaliation, except one . . But privately, these outsiders are almost unanimous. First, they say, Abiy lacks political and historical knowledge. But the remote origins of the crisis in Ethiopia stem from opposing narratives surrounding the country’s imperial history.
More precisely, their speeches and positions suggest a stereotypical conception of history, rather than a solid and deep knowledge. Second, they point out that their fundamentalist Pentecostalist faith is not a private matter. He belongs to the Mulu Wongel (Full Gospel) believers movement, which has 4.5 million Ethiopian members. According to almost all those interviewed, their faith dictates their political vision and actions. Some of the Ethiopian interviewees believe that he blatantly exploits this faith to reinforce his legitimacy. They agree with a diaspora analyst who argues that “Abiy has deliberately crafted a deceptive spirit as a persuasive tool.”
Whatever the truth, the result is the same.
Abiy believes that after Ethiopia staggered to the brink two or three years ago, when outbreaks of violent unrest threatened the country with disintegration, the only path to salvation is a kind of moral revolution. Medemer, the concept forged by Abiy, roughly translates to “combine and unite.”
The country will transcend its divisions, mainly ethnic in nature, gradually uniting around a common set of moral or ethical values: love, forgiveness, reconciliation, etc. Ethiopia needs first of all a spiritual revolution, a change of mentality. This, he tells his entourage, will bring not only peace and harmony, but prosperity.
It is therefore no accident that it chose the name Prosperity Party because of the non-ethnic structure it created on the ruins of the old ruling coalition – made up of representatives from the four most powerful regions – that held power for 27 years. The creed of the Prosperity Gospel is that the stronger the belief, the more God will reward the believer with financial blessings. Wealth is a gift from the Almighty to those who deserve it.
Abiy’s Homemade Balancing Act: Medemer Revised
By Linda Yohannes
Therefore, there is no contradiction between the strict morality of the believers and the Abiy practice of attracting followers with gifts and positions. Merera Gudina, chairman of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress party, describes this as the “commercialization of politics.” Researcher Alex de Waal He calls this framework a “political market … in the form of an exchange of political loyalty or cooperation for payment.”
Individuals, therefore, are at the center of his political vision. The realities are relative, or must be hidden, as with the total blackout of the media about the war. He even seems to embrace the concept of ‘alternative facts’, stating, for example, that not a single civilian was killed during the takeovers of the cities of Tigray, or that the majority of the refugees in Sudan are young men, despite reports from the UN refugee agency that the majority are “women and children.”
Finally, the Abiy policy is not rooted in established structures, historical precedents or institutions: “Because the truth is with us, no one will stop us … Because we work holding on to the truth, the God of Ethiopia will help us.” According to the sources interviewed, he believes himself chosen by God as the only man who can save Ethiopia, and that as long as his will is guided by God, he will win.
The recent history of Ethiopia has been turbulent.
In 1974, Emperor Haile Selassie, the “conquering lion of the tribe of Judah” and “God’s chosen one,” was deposed by a Soviet-oriented military junta. A long insurgency followed, led by a mainly Tigrayan armed force, which overthrew the junta in 1991. Once in power, the new government, which had its ideological roots in the Albanian version of Marxism-Leninism, spearheaded a system built around of and “democratic centralism” and, later, the “developmental state”.
The end of this 44-year ‘materialistic’ interregnum was in keeping with the fundamental religiosity of the Ethiopian people. Abiy has accepted it, either out of conviction and / or to affirm her popularity. He describes Ethiopia as “a nation of the Creator’s cardinal wisdom.” Ethiopians largely maintain a millennial millennialism, the belief in a prophet who will come to save the country, and Abiy has duly acquired the title of “messiah.” In the words of one supporter, Abiy “wants the soul of our nation to rise and shine once more,” a soul that “has been buried for more than 44 years, damaged and darkened … with malicious intent and design.”
Abiy Ahmed, philosopher or sophist king?
By Getu Teressa
For subjugated peripheral populations, however, this view is more often perceived as an attempt to return them to a former position of subordination, of assimilation into Abyssinian civilization, a perspective that they are fiercely opposed and opposed to. The clash between the TPLF and Abiy, therefore, is not just the expression of two opposing visions and goals for Ethiopia. It is also a reflection of two approaches, one secular and the other religious, which are irreconcilable.
Abiy recently confessed privately to a foreign official: “My people don’t understand me.” While his popularity has risen among the Amhara after victory in the conventional war at Tigray, nationally his star is waning. The so-called “law enforcement operation” in Tigray has taken an ethnic turn, with Amhara police and militia fighting Tigray forces and claiming territory. These events conceal a second front, even more dangerous in the long term: armed civil resistance in parts of Oromia, home to more than a third of the country’s population.
The economy, particularly foreign investment, is in decline rather than showing the promised improvement. A tigrayan purge has begun in the administration, and in public and even private companies, with the potential to unleash a hellish and self-sufficient cycle. Because his partner Ideology has not seeped down, Abiy has returned to more or less the same heavy-handed methods and disastrous divisive tactics with which he gained power by opposing. The main opposition figures are in jail, journalists and even some academics are intimidated, sometimes imprisoned.
For viewers on all sides, internal and external, even among the leaders of the Horn of Africa, the specter now looming is ethnic massacre on an even more dire scale than in the former Yugoslavia. They tirelessly advocate for an “inclusive national dialogue” as the only way to avoid such an outcome. Abiy has consistently refused, either because he sincerely believes he is a messiah, the only one who can “’Pentecostalize’ Ethiopian politics,” as anthropologist Dereje Feyissa describes it, or simply out of thirst for power.
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Main photo: Abiy with regional leaders at the Unity Park opening; October 10, 2019; PMO.
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