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Fo In the last four years, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has waged a war in Syria, supported Iraqi forces and directed the politics of its homeland, while trying to avoid confronting Israel. However, its exhausted leaders fear that the last gasps of Donald Trump’s presidency could generate threats that overshadow everything else.
At the heart of the organization, Hezbollah members are looking at the clock and at the skies. Israeli planes have been flying overhead for more than a month, and in recent weeks the frequency of flights has increased dramatically, as has security in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the nerve center of the most powerful militant group. region of.
Leaders and high-ranking members fear that Trump, his outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Israel intend to use the weeks leading up to Joe Biden’s inauguration to act decisively against Iran and Hezbollah before they the new president takes a softer stance than expected.
“They have their window and they want to finish what they started, said a mid-range Hezbollah group. “But don’t worry, the Sayyid [the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah] It is safe.”
Interviews with two mid-level Hezbollah members and an intermediary familiar with the thinking of the group’s top leaders have revealed an image of an organization determined not to be involved in a confrontation with Israel or to be seen as explicitly acting in defense. from Iran. All three sources said they believed the incoming US administration would attempt to negotiate the nuclear deal with Tehran, which was signed by Barack Obama and revoked by Trump and could now be renewed in another incarnation.
“That means easing the sanctions, and that means that the pressure will eventually disappear,” said one of the Hezbollah members. “They are trying to harm Iran to harm us. It won’t work because everyone has seen this plan since the summer. And we all have the means to survive its pressure. “
Israeli strikes against Iranian targets inside Syria have been an almost weekly occurrence since early 2017, and members of Hezbollah, who have been heavily involved in propping up Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, have at times been killed in airstrikes, although its high ranking members have also died. it has not been attacked recently. The assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, outside Tehran on November 27, almost certainly by Israel, has raised alarm in Beirut that the distinction made so far between Iran and Hezbollah may shift in the future. next month and a half.
One leading figure described the next few weeks as “the most dangerous period in the last 30 years. Everyone is concerned, and rightly so. “
So far, Israel has indicated that the ranks of its archenemy are not its main target in Syria, and has occasionally fired warning shots at targets it knows include Hezbollah members, to avoid killing them. One such attack, in April, involved the landing of a missile near a Jeep at the border crossing from Syria to Lebanon. When four Hezbollah members fled the vehicle, a second missile destroyed it.
Israeli leaders have strongly backed the US policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran and Trump’s revocation of the nuclear deal, seeing both as major opportunities to downgrade Hezbollah, which it sees as a potent and growing threat, emboldened by the chaos in Iraq and Syria. .
The alignment of Israeli interests with the Saudi Arabian and Gulf worldview on Iran has been advocated by Trump officials as one of the main reasons for the normalization agreements reached with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and to strengthen ties with Riad.
Israeli leaders believe that their counterparts in the Gulf are as hostile towards Hezbollah and Iran as they are, and are unwilling to rescue Lebanon from its catastrophic economic collapse as long as the group maintains control of the country’s politics.
“It doesn’t matter at all what the Saudis say,” said a second Hezbollah member. “The party can take care of its own. They must understand that if the country falls, who will come out stronger? It will not be the parties they support.
But will they try something big in Beirut in the next few weeks? It is possible and true that there are security alerts in Dahiyeh and in the south. It’s about protecting our leaders. We don’t have anything specific. But there is something in the atmosphere. “
Hezbollah’s security zone at the heart of its stronghold is surrounded by steel barriers that were erected last week, allowing cars to pass. Security members stood on the roadsides observing the flow of traffic under the surveillance of large cameras that maintain an interconnected view of Dahiyeh.
Banners of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani, who was killed in Baghdad on January 3 in a US drone attack, have been placed near intersections and hang from shop fronts throughout Dahiyeh, and photographs of Nasrallah. Also common are posters of minor figures killed in Syria and Iraq and in previous clashes with Israel.
“We are not afraid of death, as you know,” said the second Hezbollah member. “But we must protect our leaders and we know that we would be politically harmed if something happened to them. These are dangerous times. Trump is crazy, but he won’t get what he wants. You don’t have patience and you don’t have time. The Israelis think they are coming for us. We are the ones who come for them. “
