COVID-19 Patients At Higher Risk of Death, Health Problems Than Those With Flu – Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis

Nearly a year ago, COVID-19 began its worldwide rampage, infecting around 69.5 million people and killing around 1.6 million earlier this month. From the beginning, most scientists have said that COVID-19 is more deadly than the seasonal flu, while fringe theories have circulated widely, suggesting that it is less deadly or equal to the flu.

However, evidence is mounting to show how much more deadly COVID-19 compares to the flu and the extent of complications related to the two diseases.

The new research, a deep dive into federal data by researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, reveals a clearer distinction between the two viruses. Contagious: Among hospitalized patients, COVID-19 associated with an increased need for ventilators, more admissions to intensive care units (ICUs), longer hospital stays, and nearly five times the risk of death faced by people with the flu.

And while both diseases attack the lungs, the analysis showed that COVID-19 can damage other organs as well. It revealed that COVID-19 was associated with an increased risk of complications such as acute kidney and liver damage, as well as heart disorders, stroke, severe septic shock, low blood pressure, excessive blood clotting, and new-onset diabetes.

The findings appear online December 15 ET in The BMJ.

“There have been many high-profile public comparisons between COVID-19 and the flu; however, those comparisons were made mostly using disparate data and statistical methods that have led to a lot of guesswork, “said lead author Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, assistant professor of medicine at the University of Washington. “Our research represents an apple-to-apple comparison between the two diseases.”

The United States is experiencing its highest increase in COVID-19 cases and, at the same time, flu season generally begins.

“Having a consistent comparison of data helps with disease prediction models, preparedness and prevention efforts,” added Al-Aly. “The findings may inform the discussion in the US and abroad about the comparative risks of COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, and may aid the ongoing effort to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.”

For the study, the researchers analyzed anonymous medical records in a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the nation’s largest integrated health care delivery system. Researchers examined data involving 3,641 US hospitalized patients with COVID-19 sometime from February 1 to June 17, as well as 12,676 patients hospitalized with the flu sometime since January 1. from 2017 until December 31. 2019. The median age of COVID-19 or flu patients was 69.

Among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 or the flu, those infected with the new coronavirus were nearly five times more likely to die than those with the flu. Of the 12,676 flu patients, 674 (5.3%) died, and of 3,641 COVID-19 patients, 676 (18.5%) died.

Furthermore, on average, COVID-19 patients were four times more likely to require respirators and almost 2.5 times more likely to be treated in the ICU. Additionally, COVID-19 patients were more likely to be hospitalized longer, an average of three additional days.

One of the study’s biggest surprises was the finding of a higher risk of developing diabetes among COVID-19 patients than among flu patients – nine more cases per 100 people. “These patients did not have diabetes until they contracted COVID-19,” Al-Aly said. “Then their blood sugar level skyrocketed and they needed large doses of insulin. Is diabetes reversible or will it require long-term treatment? Will it be type 1 or type 2 diabetes? We just don’t know because COVID-19 barely existed a year ago. “

Data analysis also showed that COVID-19 patients at the highest risk of death were those 75 years of age and older who also had chronic kidney disease or dementia; and African Americans who were considered medically obese or who had diabetes or kidney disease.

“A deeper understanding of the health risks of COVID-19 helps to anticipate the demand for healthcare services and to project mortality more accurately,” added Al-Aly. “We know very little about COVID-19 due to its novelty. I’m not sure why black patients suffer and die more. My hunch is that the cause is related to racial disparities in health care, but there could be other factors that we don’t yet know about. “

The researchers also found that, compared to the flu, COVID-19 was associated with an increased risk of acute kidney damage and severe shock sepsis, both in six more cases on average per 100 hospitalized patients.

Compared to flu patients, people with COVID-19 also needed more medications to treat very low blood pressure, a condition that can lead to organ damage and death – 11.5 more people for every 100 people.

“We can call COVID-19 a respiratory virus all we want, but if we look at the associated clinical consequences, it can cause significant damage to the brain, liver, heart, kidneys and blood clotting systems,” Al-Aly said. “It is a destructive virus.”

Al-Aly continued: “It is very possible that within a year or five years there will be complications from COVID-19 that we have not considered. We are already aware of long-haul carriers or people who contract COVID-19 but never fully recover. They may experience ongoing discomfort or extreme fatigue, or experience changes in appetite. Is it a persistent infection? Low-grade inflammation? An autoimmune disease? We are still learning. Even people lucky enough to survive the acute illness COVID-19 can be forever scarred by the lasting impact of its long-term clinical complications. The more we understand, the better we can compare healthcare resources and treat patients. “