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In the last decade alone, the number of international migrants has multiplied by almost six, a global mix of people like never before in recent history. All the more reason, then, to witness a new civil war in one of the most diverse nations in the world: Ethiopia. The future of democracies increasingly depends on how these countries hold their multi-ethnic societies together.
The month-long conflict between the Ethiopian government and a rebellious minority, the Tigrays, threatens their long-term attempts at political harmony between 10 ethnic regions. It also threatens stability throughout the Horn of Africa, as tens of thousands of civilians have fled the fighting.
How the war ends will determine whether Ethiopia can hold together as a country. Many foreign governments are pushing for a negotiated settlement. For now, the war is more about how it started and whether opportunities to keep the peace were missed.
On November 4, well-armed leaders of the predominantly ethnic Tigray state, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), reportedly attacked a national military base near the region’s capital, Mekelle. Just a few weeks earlier, they also held elections in defiance of the central authorities. Faced with such belligerence, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed chose to deploy the army, rather than any peaceful alternative, to quell the rebellion.
Abiy took office in 2018 promising to form a more united democracy. An ethnic Oromo, his rise marked a shift in power away from the Tigrayans, who make up 6% of the population but had enormous control in the nation’s capital for nearly three decades. Tensions have been mounting since Abiy systematically displaced the Tigrayans from political and military positions.
The prime minister treats the Tigrayan rebellion as an illegal attack on Ethiopian sovereignty. His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, underscored the futility of dialogue with the TPLF in an essay in Foreign Policy last week. He argued that the Tigrayan leaders, his former colleagues, provoked the conflict to manipulate international mediation in an effort to regain influence through peace talks.
By seeking a decisive military victory, Abiy has stoked already growing ethnic tensions elsewhere. In recent months, an estimated 2.5 million Ethiopians have been displaced by violence. Three days before the Tigray rebellion, at least 54 people were killed in a schoolyard in Oromia, another ethnic state.
The harsh response from Mr. Abiy surprised many people. He won the Nobel Peace Prize a year ago for negotiating an end to a 20-year military deadlock with Eritrea. Ethiopian troops serve in UN peacekeeping missions. As the war draws to a resolution, Ethiopia must seek new solutions in other African countries that have erupted in inter-ethnic wars. South Africa, Rwanda, Burundi, Nigeria, and Mozambique have faced similar challenges. Each, in their own way, struggled to build what Abiy himself calls a “social pact” that creates a “just, equal, democratic and humane society.”
If you see the conflict in Tigray as a necessary step to protect that vision, victory under arms requires a corresponding strength: the wisdom and courage to forge an identity beyond ethnic differences that embraces all Ethiopians in peace.
