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The conflict between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a powerful militia and political party in the country’s Tigray region, has stoked fears of an impending civil war in Ethiopia.
The month-long conflict in and around Tigray, born of decades-long tensions that just erupted, has killed hundreds of civilians and left tens of thousands more displaced. The situation is particularly tense not only because aid agencies have no access to the conflict zone, but also because of the blackout of local communications, which has prevented a more detailed understanding of the confrontation. The Ethiopian government has refused to resolve the conflict diplomatically and the United Nations (UN) has demanded that the government guarantee the protection of civilians, but in the midst of fighting their human rights remain vulnerable to abuse. Regardless, the possibility of a civil war has become increasingly real.
In 1991, after decades of conflict, the TPLF overthrew a military junta called the Derg, seized control of the central authority, and established a coalition government. By suppressing political opposition, the coalition government ruled Ethiopia for 27 years, until the rise of current Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party in 2018.
Since this transition, Ethiopia has been politically transformed. Preaching reform and reconciliation, the current prime minister came to power amid protests that blamed the country’s political elite for Ethiopia’s obstructed transition to democracy, with which the TPLF had partnered. In 2019, the TPLF coalition government refused to merge with the Prosperity Party and fell from power.
Last June, tensions escalated between Abiy’s central government and the TPLF when the prime minister postponed a national election due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In September, in an act of defiance, the Tigray region held parliamentary elections, which Abiy called “illegal”. Since then, both the central government and the TPLF have been called “illegitimate,” as Abiy cites the unprecedented parliamentary vote and the TPLF claims that Abiy’s right to power has not been proven by a national election for a long time. .
On November 4, Abiy ordered a military operation against TPLF forces, legitimized by his accusation that the TPLF raided the northern headquarters of the Ethiopian army, which TPLF members have denied. The prime minister had also previously accused the TPLF of “continuing … incitement to violence,” writes the BBC. According to the International Crisis Group, the TPLF forces now comprise around 250,000 highly trained individuals drawn from the Tigrayan paramilitary units. A conflict ensued between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, leading to the declaration of a six-month state of emergency in Tigray.
As the conflict has continued for the past month, hundreds of civilians have been killed and tens of thousands more have been displaced, although the exact figures are unclear due to the communications blackout in Tigray. More than 33,000 refugees have already entered Sudan, many of whom are children, while hundreds of thousands more are expected in the next six months if the conflict continues. The UN warned that the conflict could escalate into a humanitarian crisis, scaring aid agencies, which lack access to the area.
On November 20, the TPLF fired rockets at a city in the Amhara region, neighboring Tigray. The regional government confirmed that there were no victims or damages. Still, the assault led to the addition of regional forces to the federal troops already fighting in Tigray, raising concerns that the conflict would spill over into a broader war.
On November 22, Abiy announced an ultimatum demanding the surrender of the TLPF forces in 72 hours. The Ethiopian army has warned that if the deadline is not met, its forces will surround and attack the 500,000 inhabitants of Mekelle, the capital of Tigray. The central government claimed to have seized four other cities from Tigrayan. In a statement to the TPLF, Abiy said: “Your journey of destruction is coming to an end, and we urge you to surrender peacefully … Take this last chance.”
In response to the threat of attack on Mekelle, the UN has urged the Ethiopian government to ensure the safety of civilians and humanitarian workers. Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Ethiopian army called on the residents of Mekelle to “save themselves” from the impending offensive.
TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael quickly rejected Abiy’s ultimatum and vowed to keep fighting. In a statement, Debretsion said the prime minister “does not understand who we are. We are people of principle and willing to die in defense of our right to manage our region ”. The TPLF leader also stated: “Our preparation is aimed at avoiding war, but if we are going to fight, we are ready to win.”
On November 26, in response to the failed ultimatum, Abiy ordered the offensive against Mekelle as the “final phase” of his operation. Urging residents to stay home and away from military targets, the prime minister said the army will take “great care” to avoid damage to civilians and religious sites. Meanwhile, the TPLF mobilized a significant presence in Mekelle, digging trenches and armed with AK-47 rifles. The situation has left many fearful of TPLF guerrilla attacks against the Ethiopian army, even if the offensive succeeds in taking Mekelle.
In response to the attack, UN Human Rights Chief Michelle Bachelet warned that war crimes are possible, stressing that Mekelle residents are in “profound danger.”
Later on the day of the offensive, three representatives of the African Union (AU) arrived in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa to negotiate a ceasefire. However, the central government refused to work towards a diplomatic resolution, saying the conflict is a matter of national law enforcement. The three representatives are prohibited from entering Tigray, according to the BBC.
Taken together, in the face of escalating conflict between the central government and the powerful TPLF militias, a full-blown civil war in Ethiopia has become alarmingly likely.
In this conflict, there is no well-defined perpetrator and victim. Both the Abiy government and the TPLF are responsible in part for the confusion Ethiopia faces today. The central government has delayed a national election based on dubious reasoning, exceeded the diplomatic resolution, and ordered inadequately justified military assaults that have inevitably resulted in the death and displacement of many civilians, despite promises to the contrary. The TPLF has repressed political opposition and used indiscriminate violence. Ultimately, the blood of all those who have died in the conflict is in the hands of both the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
Inadequate UN and AU responses to the conflict have allowed the unrest to continue for a month. While the UN has not only monitored and raised awareness of the severity of the crisis, but has also demanded that the Ethiopian government protect civilians and humanitarian workers caught in the middle of the conflict, the organization has not facilitated the investigation of violations. human rights law and has not taken any action. significant diplomatic action.
Similarly, as a more legitimate and therefore more capable regional organization among African countries than an international entity like the UN, the AU has offered to facilitate a diplomatic resolution between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF, the failure of which has not the AU is to blame, yet the organization has forgotten to obtain regional condemnation of the conflict or to employ regional human rights legal authorities to investigate violations.
The determined violence and disregard for democracy exhibited by the Ethiopian government and the TPLF demonstrate that without the involvement of neighboring countries, as well as international and regional organizations, the likelihood of a full-blown civil war in Ethiopia will only continue to increase. .
To resolve the conflict and ensure a lasting peace, the UN and the AU must first work in concert to increase global and regional awareness and condemnation of the conflict, encouraging countries to exert normative and political pressure on the TPLF and particularly the government. Ethiopian. , and thus bring the conflict from the battlefield to the negotiating table. The UN and the AU should work together to facilitate peace talks between the two forces and ultimately ensure their renouncement of violence by crafting an agreement that both sides deem legitimate. Finally, the two organizations should jointly facilitate the investigation of human rights violations in international courts and African regional courts, by any means, from evidence gathering to political support for judicial proceedings. On the whole, as unlikely as the prospect of peace in Ethiopia now seems, there is a way to end the conflict.
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