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TThe assassination on Friday of Iran’s top nuclear scientist has raised suspicions that Donald Trump, in collusion with hardline Israeli and Saudi allies, may be trying to lure the Tehran regime into an all-out confrontation in the final days of his presidency. Trump’s four-year Iranian vendetta is nearing a climax, and he still has the power and wherewithal to inflict lasting damage.
Speculation that Trump might soon initiate or support some form of attack on Iran, overt or covert, kinetic or cyber, swirled in the Middle East in the wake of last weekend’s unprecedented meeting in Saudi Arabia between the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Secretary of the United States. of the state, Mike Pompeo, and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.
What the three men discussed remains a closely guarded secret, a fact that has only served to fuel the conspiracy allegations. In the absence of an official statement, it is suggested that they may have agreed to intensify efforts to provoke and weaken the Tehran regime. Any subsequent retaliation by Iran could be used to justify an attack on its nuclear facilities before Trump leaves office on January 20.
The meeting at Neom, a city near the Red Sea, and the possibly deliberate leak that revealed that it had taken place, served another important purpose. Presenting an anti-Iran united front, participants warned US President-elect Joe Biden that his plans to resume dialogue with Tehran and revive the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by Trump will face fierce resistance and is possible. they have to rethink.
If Iran fights back over the assassination, as its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened, Biden’s hopes of calming the regional situation could be shattered, along with Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and elsewhere. And there is another danger. Even if the regime holds back, loyal Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria or Lebanon could take matters into their own hands.
“We will strike like thunder at the murderers of this oppressed martyr and make them regret their action,” promised Hossein Dehghan, a senior military commander, in a tweet. However, Iran’s dilemma is unbearable. If you retaliate in some obvious way, you could give your enemies the excuse they want and the opportunity they crave to strike a devastating blow.
Iran’s leaders have little doubt that Israel, with a likely green light from Washington, was behind the assassination. President Hassan Rouhani expressly blamed the “usurping Zionist regime.” Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted that there were “serious indications” of an Israeli role. “Iran calls on the international community, and especially the EU, to end its shameful double standards and condemn this act of state terror,” he wrote.
The methods used to kill scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was shot and killed on a street near Tehran, resembled those used in a series of similar killings of nuclear experts between 2010 and 2012 that Iran blamed on Israel. In 2018, Netanyahu singled out Fakhrizadeh as the alleged mastermind of Iran’s nuclear weapons.
The assassination also recalled the deadly ambush last January by General Qassem Suleimani, the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was personally ordered by Trump. While Suleimani was considered a national hero, Fakhrizadeh was also a man of great antiquity. For Iran, his death is a blow to the body.
Trump has been willing to use covert means to punish the Iranian regime, which he accuses of secretly developing nuclear weapons and destabilizing the Middle East, he claims Iran flatly denies. The United States and Israel are believed to have launched repeated sabotage attacks inside Iran under Trump’s supervision.
In July, the Natanz nuclear fuel enrichment facility was damaged by a mysterious explosion. This month, Trump reportedly discussed options to attack Natanz and other targets after UN inspectors said Iran’s low-enriched uranium reserves were now 12 times higher than allowed by the 2015 nuclear deal. abandoned by Trump.
For as yet undisclosed reasons, Trump ordered several nuclear-capable B-52 Stratofortress bombers to fly 7,000 miles into the Middle East last weekend.
Was the assassination an isolated event designed to damage Iran’s nuclear program? Or could this all be a prelude to something more strategically explosive as Trump struggles to secure his desired legacy as the scourge of Iran and the savior of Israel?
Trump certainly needs a victory. His policy with Iran to date has mainly resulted in own goals. His “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign hurt the Iranian people but left its leaders unmoved. The regime is now closer to acquiring the ability to make nuclear bombs than it would have been had Trump not reneged on the nuclear deal.
However, what happens next also depends, to some extent, on Israel and Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed are eager to send a message to Biden that what they characterize as the appeasement of Iran will not work. If the nuclear deal is to be resurrected, they want the loopholes to be filled and new elements added. Meanwhile, they say sanctions on Iran should continue.
But both men must be careful. Netanyahu cannot ignore Biden’s views or the impact that expanding hostilities could have on Israel’s security. As for the crown prince, he would certainly like to see Iran with a bloody nose. But he also has to weigh the cost of targeting Saudi cities and oil terminals. For them, murder represents a high-risk gamble.
Iran’s leaders must now decide whether to resist the urge to retaliate or attack and invite a larger conflict at a time when the country’s sanctions and the Covid-hit economy are on their knees. It is a fateful moment for the entire Middle East. Filled with eerie malevolence, Trump is waiting to jump. After four years of failure, you may be tempted to come out strong.
