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DUBAI: During the early hours of November 4, when the results of the US presidential elections monopolized the international conversation, clashes broke out in a country considered a strategic partner of Washington. Simmering tensions between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government and the authorities in the country’s Tigray region reached a fever pitch and sowed the seeds of another humanitarian crisis in Africa.
While there are no official figures on casualties, it is believed that hundreds of lives have already been lost on both sides, many of them civilians. The assault, officially dubbed “a law enforcement operation,” has included the use of air force planes and ground troops against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling party of the eponymous region. Abiy said he had no choice but to order the offensive after federal defense forces in the Tigrayan capital Mekelle had his camp ransacked in a TPLF attack.
Regardless of which side is to blame for the escalation, the UN has warned that 1.1 million more people need help, with at least 40,000 Ethiopians crossing into neighboring Sudan and the UN refugee agency preparing for up to 200,000 arrivals during the next six months. Meanwhile, journalists have become wary of reporting from the war zone after the arrest of at least six Ethiopian media workers.
However, it is not only the media that are controlled by the authorities. William Davison, a senior Ethiopia analyst at the International Crisis Group, was recently expelled by authorities. “There is a climate of fear; people are afraid to speak up, ”said Matt Bryden, director of Sahan Research in Addis Ababa. “There is no communication with Tigray at this time. There is no internet or telecommunications there now. The few people I managed to talk to a week ago seem to have been left in the dark. “
A report in Addis Fortune magazine says that transactions on all Tigrayan accounts have been frozen, meaning that no one can move money in or out of the region. “There is also no humanitarian access to the Tigray,” Bryden told Arab News. “The government has indicated that it will not allow any opening (to the region) until the current (military) operation is concluded.” On November 23, Abiy gave Tigray 72 hours to surrender as government troops advanced towards Mekelle. The TPLF, however, has vowed to keep fighting.
Ethiopia has returned to a state of war over unfinished business dating back decades. Troubles among its historically and culturally diverse ethnic groups, numbering roughly 80, have been a feature of national politics since 1996, when the current constitution came into effect and divided the country into nine ethnically-based semi-autonomous regions.
As with all previous conflicts, this time there is also a lot of guilt. “This is not Tigray against the rest of Ethiopia. This is Abiy trying to take over all of Ethiopia and right now it is dealing with Tigray, “said Martin Plaut, fellow at the Institute for Commonwealth Studies and author of” Understanding Eritrea. “
“There has always been a power struggle between the Tigray and Amhara regions over who runs Ethiopia. In 1991, when the Tigrayans took control of the country, they devised a system of ethnic federalism. Instead of people declaring their allegiance to Ethiopia, they owed allegiance to their ethnic group. When Abiy came to power, he tried to return power to the center and reestablish the traditional Ethiopian imperial structure, which had been lost under the Tigrayan system.
Plaut was referring to the April 2018 rise to power of Abiy, the son of a Muslim father and Christian mother who grew up in a family of religious plurality. His reform program for Africa’s second-largest nation and second-largest economy quickly won praise for its boldness from international organizations and political economists.
Many African and international observers saw Abiy as something of a savior for a country of 110 million people devastated by decades of conflict and misrule. The 17-year civil war between government forces and Eritrean rebels caused a famine that left 1 million dead. Scenes of skeletal malnourished children in camps set up by aid agencies shocked the conscience of the world and led 72 rock bands to perform on July 13, 1985, the famous Live Aid concert, which raised an estimated $ 125 million to feed starving Ethiopians.
In 2019, Abiy won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to resolve a border conflict with Eritrea, which erupted in 1998-2000 and killed thousands. But opinions on its merit vary. “The opening of the political space has led to extreme violence in the country,” said an Addis Ababa political analyst who did not want to be named. “All these latent disputes over the territory have erupted throughout Ethiopia. Every week now there is a massacre of civilians in some area of the country.
Over the decades, the Oromo, Amhara, and Tigrayans have failed to agree on a friendly division of the spoils. Amhara’s elites traditionally dominated Ethiopia, but were overtaken by the Tigrayans between 1991 and 2018 through the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a federalist ethnic political coalition.
“Many Ethiopians, particularly dissidents, see Abiy as a reincarnation of (former dictator) Mengistu (Haile Mariam) because he is seen as a bearer of plans to govern Ethiopia centrally,” said the Ethiopian political analyst. “This perceived stance was used as a rallying cry in the various episodes of violence that have broken out in Oromia, where Abiy is from. You have his former allies who have turned against him for this reason as well. “
Observers say that to achieve its goal of “stabilizing” Ethiopia, Abiy has bypassed and clashed with many regional elites and interest groups. Bryden puts it this way: “You’re talking about a country as old as Ethiopia, with more than 100 million people, many of whom are rural, barely literate, albeit literate, living at a subsistence level. When you try to make these kinds of changes, you are creating opportunities for other elites to challenge your vision and authority. However, people believed in Abiy’s vision and with the demise of the EPRDF life could only get better. “
According to many reports, the opposite has turned out to be true. Eritrea has said that it was attacked by the TPLF on November 13 and 14 apparently for allowing the Ethiopian army to use an Eritrea airport to attack Tigray. The reported clashes have renewed long-standing tensions between Eritrea and the TPLF, as well as raising the specter of a multifaceted conflict that could destabilize the wider region.
There is already a parallel dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the $ 5 billion Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which is located on the Blue Nile near the border with Sudan. Ethiopia expects the 6,000-megawatt dam to make it Africa’s leading hydropower provider. However, Egypt and Sudan fear that the project will substantially reduce their participation in water and affect development prospects.
According to analysts and a rights group, the only way out of the current conflict is a national dialogue. Ethiopia’s regional leaders “could come up with a plan that meets many of the current demands dating back five decades into the Mengistu era,” the Ethiopian political analyst said. “Unless we can have a national dialogue, the country will remain locked in this cycle of violence.”
However, until Wednesday, the idea of a national dialogue seemed far-fetched. Ethiopia has opposed what it calls “unwanted and illegal acts of interference” in its affairs, obviously referring to the military operation. According to a statement by Abiy, “the international community must stand by until the Ethiopian government submits its requests for assistance.”
Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor
