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Cyclone Gati brings heavy rains to northern Somalia
On November 17 and 21, Cyclone Gati formed in the Indian Ocean and made landfall on the 22nd near Xaafuun and the extreme north of the northeast Somalia. It is the strongest storm recorded in Somalia. Double the annual average rainfall was expected to fall in two days. Bosaso reported 128mm in 24 hours and extensive damage was reported in the Bari region. In the last two days, Gati has moved in a westerly direction along the north coast Somalia toward Berbera and weakened as it headed for the Gulf of Aden.
Gati could affect current desert locust infestations in a number of ways. Heavy rains are likely to have fallen on the Somali plateau between Hargeisa and Garowe, which lies north of the current breeding ground at Ogaden, in eastern Somali in Ethiopia and adjacent downtown areas Somalia. However, the rains would allow immature swarms still present near Hargeisa and Jijiga, Ethiopia to quickly complete their maturation and lay eggs. On the other hand, the winds associated with the cyclone may have allowed these swarms to move southeast to the Ogaden, where they would mature and lay eggs in the current breeding grounds.
In any event, the widespread breeding currently underway in the eastern Ethiopia, central Somalia and maybe south Somalia, along with a possible expansion to the north Somalia, is expected to cause the formation of numerous immature swarms in early December and continue until the end of the year. Many of these swarms will migrate south Ethiopia and south Somalia, coming north Kenya mid-December and continue thereafter. The potential scale of this migration could be substantial.
Intensive reconnaissance and control operations should be increased by Ethiopia Y Somalia while greater vigilance and preparation is required in Kenya.
