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Addis Ababa gave TPLF until Wednesday to give in, and aid workers fear for civilians
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ultimatum for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to lay down its arms will expire in a matter of hours, and Amnesty International has called on both sides to refrain from targeting civilians.
Ahmed said on Sunday that the group, which heads the Tigray regional government, had 72 hours to surrender or the capital of Tigray, Mekelle, would be attacked. The deadline is Wednesday.
If the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) refuses to give in in the three-week war, there could be a bloodbath, foreign governments and humanitarian groups say.
Hundreds have already died, tens of thousands have fled, and the conflict could spread to neighboring countries.
According to Amnesty International, Ethiopian military spokesman Colonel Dejene Tsegaye said on national television: “We want to send a message to the public in Mekelle to save ourselves from any artillery attack and free ourselves from the junta…. After that, there will be no mercy. “
We want to send a message to the public in Mekelle so that they are saved from any artillery attack and free from the junta…. After that, there will be no mercy
Fisseha Tekle, Amnesty Researcher for Ethiopia and Eritrea, told The Media Line that the battle front had moved to Mekelle.
“We are really concerned about the human impact of that conflict because Mekelle is home to some 500,000 residents and a number of civil institutions such as hospitals and churches,” he said.
We are really concerned about the human impact of that conflict because Mekelle is home to some 500,000 residents and various civil institutions such as hospitals and churches.
Tekle points out that the population of the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia is 5 to 6 million, including some 100,000 Eritrean refugees. The researcher said he is concerned that the basic needs of the population are not being met.
“What really worries is that the people, especially in Mekelle… are still short of water. Food has become extremely expensive. Banks are closed, so people can’t get money to buy food, “he said.
Local media reported that 500 people were killed in a massacre in the city of Mai Kadra on November 9.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) says that at least 30,000 people have to flee to Sudan. Amnesty says that all communication with Tigray has been cut off.
US Undersecretary for African Affairs Tibor P. Nagy told reporters last Thursday: “We continue to pressure the Ethiopian government to restore communication in the region as an act of accountability and transparency and to allow greater contact with civilians, including US citizens in the region. “
The fighting began on November 4 when Ahmed sent the Ethiopian National Defense Force, the nation’s army, to Tigray after the local army attacked a government military installation, with the resulting deaths.
The TPLF has said that the prime minister illegally extended his term by indefinitely delaying elections scheduled for September due to COVID-19. Voting at the national level stopped, but the Tigray region held elections anyway.
Terje Ostebo, associate professor at the University of Florida Center for African Studies and chair of its Department of Religion, told The Media Line that the situation escalated until leaders on neither side were willing to acknowledge the other, and Ahmed cut funding, including money intended to fight the pandemic.
“That put the Tigray regional government in a difficult situation,” said Ostebo, whose book Islam, ethnicity and conflict in Ethiopia: the Bale insurgency, 1963-1970 it was published this year.
The bloodshed was predictable and could have been prevented, he said.
“If this had happened four or five months ago, [have been]… Surprised, but the way things were increasing, particularly since September, it seemed that this was going to be what would happen, ”he said.
“The rhetoric became increasingly hostile from both sides, and in October we saw military parades in Tigray,” Ostebo continued. “It was clear that things were brewing and that the violent conflict would be immense.”
The rhetoric grew increasingly hostile from both sides, and in October we saw military parades in Tigray. It was clear that things were brewing and that the violent conflict would be immense
The professor says he is concerned that unrest could spread across Ethiopia.
“In recent years, there has been an increase in local ethnic conflicts that, to some extent, are isolated from each other,” he explained. “The fact that most of the security forces … [have been] moved north means there really is the possibility of local conflicts breaking out. “
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Ostebo is particularly concerned about the Oromo region, where people have been protesting the national leadership for years. He adds that Ahmed has not been open to dialogue with TPLF, although the group has indicated that it is willing to come to the table.
“Ahmed sees this as a law enforcement operation in which he labels the Tigrayan regional government as a criminal,” he told The Media Line. “There are several envoys in the country, the African Union being the largest [group represented]But so far there has been no indication that he is willing to negotiate. “
Ostebo says Ethiopian regions have been disappointed in the Ahmed government, which won the Nobel Peace Prize for improving relations with Eritrea.
“Abiy’s mandate was [at first] promising that there were many promises of reforms and negotiations with Eritrea began, ”he said. “Unfortunately, what we have seen, particularly since the end of 2019, is a kind of return to a mode of governance that relies heavily on force.”
At first, the Abiy term was promising in the way that there were many promises of reforms and negotiations with Eritrea began. Unfortunately, what we’ve seen, particularly since the end of 2019, is something of a return to a mode of governance that relies heavily on force.
He adds that Ethiopia has had oppressive leaders for decades, and Ahmed has turned out to be no better.
“The Abiy that we saw at the beginning is not the Abiy that we see today,” said the professor, adding: “I think it is a reminder for the Nobel Peace Prize. [committee] to see maybe more results before the candidate is chosen … “
He feels that the end of the TPLF is difficult to determine.
“At the moment,” he said, “I think they are just fighting to survive.”
Jon Abbink, an Ethiopia expert who chairs the Assembly of Researchers at the Center for African Studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands, says the way to stop the fighting is for national forces to defeat the TPLF, which does not appear to have the support of the majority of the population of the Tigray region.
“The best way to end it is for the federal army to end the battle against the elite of the TPLF and its core militias, and arrest the… senior political and military leaders, take them to court, and begin reconstruction and reform of the administration. regional, he told The Media Line.
The best way to end it is for the federal army to end the battle against the elite of the TPLF and its main militias, and arrest the … senior political and military leaders, take them to court and begin the reconstruction and reform of the regional administration.
Ostebo is particularly concerned about the spread of violence in the region. There have been unconfirmed reports that the United Arab Emirates, which shares a base in Eritrea with Saudi Arabia, have sent drones to Tigray in support of Addis Ababa.
Just over a week ago, the TPLF launched rockets at Eritrea for its alleged aid to the Ethiopian government.
“The worst case scenario is that Ethiopia implodes, the war continues and the region is embroiled in local conflicts, [until] it ends up in Addis Ababa, ”he said. “I think we are far from that at the moment, but there is a small potential that this could recalibrate the entire region.”
Abbink is not convinced that the conflict is expanding.
“[The] the consequences for neighboring countries are limited, even if the fighting continues for a couple of weeks, ”he said.
“The announced ‘humanitarian disaster’ and the destabilizing effects of the campaign in and / or Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea or South Sudan are not really materializing,” he continued. “[There is] no danger of the armed conflict in Tigray spreading beyond national borders ”.
Amnesty International’s Tekle says world leaders must minimize the effects of the war on civilians, with Mekelle of particular concern.
“We hope that the international community, including the United States, will put pressure on both parties to the conflict to respect their humanitarian obligations,” he said.
We hope that the international community, including the US, will put pressure on both parties to the conflict to respect their humanitarian obligations.
The United States has made efforts in this direction, and Nagy said Washington had allocated $ 320 million for fiscal year 2020 to UNHCR and other aid organizations, some of which go to Sudan.
“We … urge both parties to maintain access for humanitarian organizations to provide essential assistance to vulnerable groups in the region,” he said Thursday.
“We are also closely monitoring the departure of civilians [to] neighboring countries and are in close contact with the UN and other humanitarian officials regarding contingency plans in their response, ”he added. “We urge neighboring countries to keep their borders open to asylum seekers fleeing the violence.”
