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November 20, 2020
The entree Joe biden The administration will find that key Middle East failures are increasingly present in Africa. On one side is Egypt, backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other is Turkey and Qatar. The dividing lines include struggles for influence in Libya and Sudan, and increasingly in North Africa and Western Sahara, Ethiopia and Somalia. Russia is also exploring its opportunities at the expense of the United States. Here are five trends to watch:
Egypt weighs impact of civil war in Ethiopia on Nile dam talks
For Egypt, there is no higher priority than reaching a satisfactory conclusion in the negotiations with Ethiopia on the allocation of water from the Nile River affected by the Great Ethiopian River Dam (GERD). Egypt depends on the Nile for more than 90% of the water needs of its 100 million citizens. Cairo wants a deal that ensures its fair share of water once the dam is built.
For Ethiopia, the dam could reshape the development of the country and the region. The dam has been woven into a populist narrative of Ethiopian self-determination. The country has rejected the interference of Egypt or anyone else. The United States, the World Bank and the African Union (AU) have been involved in trying to negotiate a compromise, which would also include Sudan.
It is not surprising then that Egypt is watching with interest and concern the outbreak of civil war in Ethiopia between the government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The civil war in Ethiopia has regional implications. Thousands of refugees have already fled to Sudan. Eritrea is concerned that a fragile peace negotiated by the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy ahmed and President of Eritrea Isaias Afwerki Two years ago, which led to Abiy receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, could collapse, and that civil war could lead to chronic instability and violence in Ethiopia and spread to Eritrea.
A delegation from Eritrea visited Egypt last week, three days after the TPLF bombed the Asmara airport. Egypt and Eritrea have always had good relations and the delegations, while being careful not to discuss Ethiopia publicly, clearly discussed it in private.
Egypt is weighing the consequences of the war in the Nile dam negotiations, as George Mikhail writes. If the conflict escalates, it could slow down the development of the dam in Ethiopia. While Egyptian officials have remained neutral or silent on the war, pro-government media has criticized Abiy for fueling the conflict with the TPLF, as Muhammed Magdy reports.
However, even in the midst of the conflict, another round of AU-sponsored GERD negotiations took place on 19 November. Sudan called for a new approach to the talks, which it described as “useless” in the current format. With the uncertainty surrounding the civil war in Ethiopia, Egypt has sought to deepen its political and security relations with Sudan, including to counter Turkey’s ambitions (see below).
Ties between Egypt and Sudan control Turkish influence in Horn
Mohamed Saied reports that the deepening of military ties between Egypt and Sudan is another sign for Ethiopia, as well as a new grip on Turkish influence, which has faded since the ouster of the former Sudanese president and war criminal. Omar al-Bashir, who was deposed in a coup last year.
Khalid Hassan explains that Egypt is looking to take advantage of ties with Sudan and Israel to counter the growing Turkish influence in Somalia. Turkey sees Somalia as a counterweight to the loss of Bashir because of its strategic influence and access to the Red Sea.
Russian naval base in Sudan sends signal to the US and Turkey
Sudan is both a party to the GERD talks and the third country, after the Emirates and Bahrain, to normalize ties with Israel this year. The United States agreed to remove Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism following Khartoum’s willingness to establish ties with Israel.
Sudan has also been in the Russian president Vladimir Putin schedule. This week, Sudan agreed to allow Russia to build a naval base in Sudan. Anton Mardosov explains that the base could have been in the works for a long time, for a number of political, economic and logistical reasons. More generally, however, Putin’s move is a signal to China, Turkey and the United States. China has expanded its influence through its belt and road initiatives in Africa. Turkey lost a friend when Bashir was deposed. Putin tends to be on the opposite side of Turkey in the Libyan conflict (below). Russia may also seek a naval base in Libya, according to Kirill Semenov, following Sudan. And the United States, after ending the terrorist designation, thereby allowing American and international economic aid to Sudan, cannot be happy to see Khartoum negotiate with Russia in its network of relationships.
Egypt believes Qatari move undermines Libya peace talks
Despite a UN-brokered ceasefire, Qatar agreed to sell arms and provide military personnel to the Government of Libya’s National Accord (GNA), declaring that full support for the GNA is the best means to end the conflict, as Khalid reports. Hassan..
Both Turkey and Qatar support the GNA, while Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia support the Libyan National Army backed by General Khalifa hifter.
A worrying sign for the peace negotiations is that the Turkish-backed Syrian jihadists in support of the GNA, and the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner group, who serve as informal gendarmes for the Kremlin, and who back Hifter, still show no signs of leaving. , as we report here.
Would Turkey take sides in Western Sahara?
Turkey has achieved good relations with both Algeria and Morocco, but this could all be complicated if the conflict in Western Sahara escalates. This is why.
Morocco regards Western Sahara as its territory, while Algeria supports the separatist Polisario Front. Most of the Arab world backs Morocco. Both the UAE and Jordan recently announced that they will establish consulates in the region, furthering Morocco’s claims.
Turkey has been on the side of Morocco, and prudence should advise staying out of it. But the turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan he has a personal investment in ties with Algeria, as Pinar Tremblay reports. And Erdogan may begin to see the conflict in his broader rivalry with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Turkish businesses in Morocco are also being affected by the boycott of Turkish products led by Saudi Arabia. A sea change in Western Sahara may seem high risk and little gain for Ankara, but Erdogan’s ambitions in North Africa may force him to consider a restart.
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