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November 20, 2020
Egypt and Sudan are conducting joint military exercises that will last until November 26, the latest sign of deepening military ties between the two neighbors that share the Nile.
Units from Egypt’s air force and Saiqa (Thunderbolt) commando forces arrived at Sudan’s Lt. Gen. Awad Khalafallah air base in Merowe, north of Khartoum, to begin joint military exercises on November 14, the Egyptian army.
These joint air maneuvers for the first time, dubbed Nile Eagles-1, are aimed at boosting joint military cooperation between the two countries and enhancing the ability to conduct joint air operations using various aerial weapons, according to a statement from Egyptian army spokesman Brig . . General Tamer al-Rifai.
The exercises come as tensions with Ethiopia rise over its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project.
The maneuvers included joint combat operations between the Egyptian and Sudanese air forces and multi-role combat aircraft exercises from both sides to conduct a series of offensive and defensive sorties against targets, while the Saiqa Forces conducted drills. search and rescue in combat Rifai’s statement said.
Hani Raslan, an expert on Sudanese affairs in the Nile River Basin Studies Unit at the government-affiliated Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, told Al-Monitor by phone that this training is a bilateral development. qualitative in the relations between Egypt and Sudan. since the removal of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on April 11, 2019.
Raslan added: “The general nature of relations between the two countries was fraught with tension, especially under the Bashir government. Although the general tension in their relations was marked by truce and calm in some periods, general politics was marred by a lack of harmony, which continued even after the overthrow of Bashir, which is the result of the negative image that his previous regime established towards Egypt. Today, the situation has completely changed ”.
Relations between the two countries were further strained during Bashir’s three-decade rule, when Sudan hosted hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood leaders who fled Egypt following the overthrow of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013.
What bothered Egypt the most was the fact that Bashir had given Turkish President Recep Erdogan a foothold on the Red Sea coast when he signed an agreement in late December 2017 that gave Turkey, which is the archrival of Egypt in a broader regional conflict over political Islam, the right to build a naval pier for the maintenance of civilian and military vessels on the Sudanese island of Suakin overlooking the Red Sea, near the border with Egypt. Observers viewed the move at the time as an attempt by Turkey to establish a military base, posing a threat to Egyptian national security. Meanwhile, the future of this agreement is unknown, although it is speculated that it will be suspended since Bashir was ousted.
Raslan said: “Today, post-Bashir Sudan is at a crossroads. There are common challenges to the national security of Egypt and Sudan. Egypt is the country most concerned about the stability and security of Sudan because it is an integral part of Egyptian national security; Instability in Sudan will put a strain on Egyptian national security. That is why Cairo wishes to follow the political process in Sudan and support all opportunities for peace and stability, as well as increase cooperation at the military level between both countries.
He added: “There are common problems between the two countries related to the waters of the Nile and the Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia, and others related to the security of the Red Sea and the situation in Libya.”
The Egyptian army chief of staff, Lieutenant General Mohamed Farid, and a high-ranking military delegation visited Sudan on October 31 to discuss ways to improve military and security cooperation between the two countries.
During the visit, Farid met with the Chief of Staff of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Lieutenant General Mohammed Othman al-Hussein, and the Sudanese Defense Minister, Major General Yassin Ibrahim. The two sides agreed to improve joint action in training, border security and combating terrorism, and that there be greater cooperation in other areas.
Osman mirghani, a Sudanese analyst and editor-in-chief of the independent daily Al-Tayar, told Al-Monitor that military cooperation between the two countries is the product of common interests and national security needs.
The Sudanese News Agency reported on November 16 that other military exercises are being organized between the two countries for the end of 2020 and 2021.
Raslan attributed the increased security coordination and military cooperation between the two countries to the visit of the head of Sudan’s Sovereignty Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to Cairo on October 27, where he met with the Egyptian president. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. .
After their meeting, Sisi and Burhan highlighted the importance of national security issues between the two countries, including the issue of water, as they indicated that both countries are committed to reaching a binding legal agreement that guarantees clear rules for the process of filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, in addition to achieving the common interests of all parties, according to a statement from the Egyptian presidency on October 27.
Egypt and Sudan have reservations about the gigantic hydroelectric dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile and its operational program, as all negotiations between the three countries have failed for a full decade; the last talks were on November 4, when Egypt and Sudan announced yet another failure to reach an agreement with Ethiopia on a methodology to complete negotiations on the filling and operation of the dam. The African Union-sponsored negotiations ended without setting a date for another round.
Press reports indicate that the recent exchange of visits between the Egyptian and Sudanese military leaders, culminating in the joint military training currently underway, is a warning message to Ethiopia that if negotiations continue to fail, a military solution may be on the table. .
On October 23, outgoing US President Donald Trump warned during a phone call with Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok against the possibility of Egypt resorting to bombing the dam if no deal is reached.
Mirghani refused to link the military cooperation and joint training between Egypt and Sudan to the possibility of resorting to a military solution at the dam. “Training has nothing to do with threatening the security of any other country; Sudan had previously conducted the same maneuvers in the same region three years ago with the Saudi air force. It is normal for the military relations between Egypt and Sudan to grow not only in the interest of the two countries but even of the region because military cooperation contributes to strengthening stability in the region, ”he said.
Raslan said: “It makes no sense to talk about scenarios for a military solution regarding the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam because the Egyptian leadership, and as President Sisi himself said, has explicitly emphasized that the negotiations will not be resolved militarily, but rather through negotiation, even if this road is difficult and long ”.
Raslan added: “Are there other scenarios in case of extreme stress? This is a matter that cannot be taken into account, since no information is available on the matter. Too much talking about the military solution is a subject of excessive discussion without context.
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