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November 20, 2020
CAIRO – As the conflict rages in the Ethiopian Tigray region, a high-ranking Eritrean delegation arrived in Cairo on November 17 for a visit that raised questions about the Egyptian position on the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia and the reasons why. behind the visit of the Eritrea ally this time.
On November 18, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry received his Eritrean counterpart, Othman Saleh, and the political adviser to the Eritrean president, Yamani Jabr Ab, at the Tahrir Palace in Cairo.
Ahmed Hafez, a spokesman for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, said in a press release on November 18 that the meeting addressed the current situation in the Horn of Africa and ways to address the challenges associated with it at various levels.
Shoukry highlighted during the meeting the “great interest of Cairo in the stability of the region and its enthusiasm to monitor current events”, and expressed “Egypt’s full support for all efforts aimed at strengthening peace and security in this region, which is a basic pillar of regional and continental security. ”
According to analysts who spoke with Al-Monitor, the delegation visited Eritrea’s historic ally Cairo to request support and assistance and to inform it of developments in the conflict on the ground after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) bombed the capital of Eritrea, Asmara. airport November 14.
On November 3, military action by the Federal Government of Ethiopia intensified against local forces in the Tigray region, causing hundreds of deaths and displacing thousands of people across the borders into Sudan.
The Ethiopian conflict was met with silence at the Egyptian official level, but Egyptian media close to the government criticized the behavior of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy Ahmed, for fueling the conflict in his country.
Rakha Hassan, a member of the Egyptian Council on Foreign Relations, told Al-Monitor that Egypt seeks to remain at the same distance from the parties to the conflict so that its position is not misinterpreted as gloating over what is happening in Ethiopia, because this it is an internal Ethiopian affair, and Egypt is in a critical position due to the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis.
Speaking about the visit of the Eritrean delegation to Cairo, Hassan pointed out that it is linked to the discussions on bilateral relations and cooperation with Eritrea in technical and specialized fields, as well as consultations on the conditions of the Horn of Africa and the current conflict near. the Eritrea border at Tigray.
He said Eritrea is consulting with Cairo for Egypt to provide assistance based on its long experience in Africa and to present initiatives through the African Union (AU) to resolve the Ethiopia crisis.
Hassan emphasized that Egypt is interested in the stability of Sudan and Eritrea, as there is concern that the Ethiopian conflict will spread to neighboring countries such as Eritrea, whose airport was bombed, and Sudan, where thousands of Ethiopian refugees have flocked. to escape the conflict. .
The TPLF accuses Eritrea of participating with the Ethiopian army in the ongoing military operation in the region, as Ahmed has had good ties with Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki since the signing of the 2018 peace agreement between them, for the one that Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize.
At the same time, Egypt has close historical relations with Eritrea, with the former playing the largest role in supporting the latter for some three decades until Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991.
Amani al-Tawil, a researcher at the government-affiliated Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor that the visit by the Eritrean delegation brings Cairo into the picture of events on the ground in the Tigray region. pointing out the media blackout and conflicting reporting on the conflict there.
He added that the visit could express Eritrea’s desire to coordinate with Egypt and Sudan in accordance with the new balance of power, noting that on November 14, the armies of Egypt and Sudan began conducting joint air maneuvers for the first time in the Lieutenant General Awad of Sudan. Khalafallah Air Base in Merowe and will continue until November 26.
However, he ruled out the possibility of Egypt providing military support to Eritrea in the conflict, given Egypt’s traditional historical policy of distancing itself from inter-ethnic conflicts in Africa.
“If the conflict were to grow, it would not be the best for Egypt … it needs Ethiopia to be a stable country, whether to solve the GERD crisis or other problems,” Tawil said.
The escalating crisis in Ethiopia comes at a time when Addis Ababa is facing a major dispute with Cairo over GERD, which Egypt sees as an existential threat as the two countries, along with Sudan, have been involved in arduous negotiations for a decade. about this theme.
For his part, Riccardo Fabiani, a researcher on African affairs at the International Crisis Group, told Al-Monitor: “The recent visit is an attempt by Cairo to get directly involved diplomatically in the current crisis in Ethiopia, which has had some repercussions in Eritrea. . too.”
However, he doubted Egypt would want to provide military support to Eritrea, because “Cairo still needs an agreement with Addis Ababa regarding GERD, and Egypt, whether supporting the TPLF or encouraging Eritrea to intervene, will only undermine its already tense relationship with Ethiopia. “
Fabiani added: “Ethiopia’s fragility and instability make the deal with Egypt and Sudan difficult. Furthermore, Ahmed’s weakness means that he will not accept an agreement with Cairo regarding the GERD. “
Amid the ongoing fighting in Tigray, a new round of the GERD negotiations sponsored by the UA began on November 19 at the invitation of the South African Minister of International Relations, Naledi Pandor, who is chairing the current session of the AU Executive Council, in the presence of the Ministers of Irrigation and Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, after the last round of negotiations held in November. .4 hesitated.
In a statement after the meeting, Sudan’s Irrigation Ministry said Pandor requested to continue negotiations on the Renaissance dam in a new round that will last for the next 10 days, while Sudan expressed its reservation about the invitation, which it deemed “useless. , “and asked to continue negotiations according to a new methodology that gives a greater role to AU experts in closing the gap between the three countries.
For its part, Egypt stressed during the meeting “the importance of resuming negotiations to reach a binding legal agreement as soon as possible on the filling and operation of the Renaissance dam, expressing its aspiration to participate in the next round of negotiations.”
“Cairo is aware that internal instability makes Addis Ababa less flexible in the negotiations, so I would not be surprised if Egypt asked Eritrea to avoid responding to the recent bombing and to stay out of the conflict,” Fabiani said.
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