[ad_1]
When a Nobel Peace Prize winner goes to war just over a year after receiving the world’s most prestigious honor, it can come as a surprise. But when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who won the award in 2019, announced last week that he was launching a military offensive against one of his country’s ethnic regions, the news did not surprise close observers.
The sudden outbreak of large-scale fighting between the federal forces and the heavily armed Tigray regional government had been building steadily since Abiy became prime minister in 2018 and then dissolved Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, which included the Front Tigray People’s Liberation Party and three other ethnically defined regional parties. . The TPLF refused to join the new national party that Abiy formed to replace the ruling coalition, leaving it out of power after having dominated the national government since 1991, when the military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam was overthrown.
Abiy had outmaneuvered the TPLF, but the party continued to rule the Tigray region. The other reforms Abiy enacted immediately after taking office were transformative and were greeted with euphoria by most Ethiopians and the international community. He welcomed exiled opposition leaders, reached a peace agreement with neighboring Eritrea and promised to build a strong and lasting democracy in Ethiopia.
But even then, it was clear that once the excitement subsided, Abiy would still face the same problems that have now brought the country to the brink of civil war, which could spell calamity once again for the entire Horn of Africa. A few months after Abiy came to power, I wrote about the many obstacles she faced. “The most difficult thing,” I noted, was “to transform the current political landscape, dominated by ethnic and tribal loyalties, into one in which citizenship, loyalty to the country as a whole, transcends narrower divisions.”
Ethiopia’s federal system divides the country into 10 ethnically distinct regions, controlled by its dominant ethical groups. Tigray’s leaders have lost most of their power and influence under Abiy, but it is not the only region where tensions have been under the surface.
The TPLF has been angered by Abiy’s efforts to expand the influence of the national government. They accused Abiy, a member of the country’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo, of displaying authoritarian tendencies and using repressive measures against them, firing the Tigrayans from government positions and persecuting them. Human rights groups have warned that his administration was beginning to display some of the repressive traits of its predecessors.
Abiy, unsurprisingly, sees it differently. His government has tried to strengthen Ethiopia’s national identity and strengthen the role of the central government since Addis Ababa. To the Tigrayans, that looks suspiciously like an effort to dismantle the federalism that gave the regions some autonomy.
The conflict began to boil in recent months. In June, Ethiopia’s federal parliament announced that due to the coronavirus pandemic, the mandates of all regional governments would be extended beyond their scheduled expiration and national elections would be postponed.
Tigray rejected that order and held its regional elections in September. Abiy saw this as a dangerous challenge to his authority and that of Addis Ababa. In response, the government announced that it would stop recognizing the Tigray regional government beyond its original expiration date, in October, and would stop transferring federal funds to it. The TPLF called that “equivalent to a declaration of war.”
It was clear that once the excitement subsided, Abiy would still face the same problems that have now brought the country to the brink of civil war.
Tensions continued to rise, with troop movements and threatening language. On November 2, Debretsion Gebremichael, regional president of Tigray and president of the TPLF, announced that the well-trained and experienced military forces of his region were preparing for war.
The federal parliament later branded the TPLF a terrorist group, essentially ending any prospect of a negotiated settlement. The die was cast on November 4, when Abiy declared that “the last red line has been crossed”, accusing the TPLF of attacking a government military base. The military offensive in Tigray followed, with a predictable impact on the civilian population and unpredictable consequences for the wider region.
The refugee flows began almost immediately. The United Nations refugee agency reported a “large-scale humanitarian crisis”, as tens of thousands of Ethiopian civilians fled to neighboring Sudan for their lives.
Concerns that the conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia’s borders also quickly materialized. Tigrayan leaders accused the Eritrean government of siding with Addis Ababa and attacking them, a charge that Eritrea denied. Tigrayan forces even fired rockets over the border at Eritrea’s main airport.
There are two main competing narratives in this conflict: Abiy maintains that he is trying to save Ethiopia by preventing a rogue region from challenging the central government and going its own way. Tigrayan leaders say they are defending the rights of their region from a repressive leader.
Ethiopia’s neighbors are alarmed, fearing that the war in Ethiopia poses a threat to the region. The Horn of Africa has a history of civil wars, which have caused epic famines and utter devastation. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has called for a reduction in escalation, noting that Ethiopia and Kenya have “served as anchor states for regional peace and stability.” Other leaders in Africa and around the world have urged the two sides to negotiate a peaceful solution.
For now, Abiy is ignoring those pleas. Instead, earlier this week, he announced “the latest critical act of law enforcement,” as government troops march on the capital of Tigray after forces in the region refused to respect the deadline for surrender. . The Ethiopian leader, the youngest in Africa, wants to inflict a crushing defeat on the rebel forces. But you don’t have much time. Popular support, one of the main sources of power and legitimacy for Abiy, will diminish if victory does not come quickly, and the pressure from the same international community that celebrated his mandate and his reforms will become more difficult to bear the longer this conflict lasts. .
At the same time, other restless provinces in Ethiopia, home to other ethnic groups with their own grievances, are paying close attention. Abiy has rolled the dice with this high risk move against Tigray. If government forces can secure a swift victory, and Abiy can follow through with an effort at national reconciliation and regional negotiation, he may be able to brandish it all as a sign of a new Ethiopia, moving forward together. Tigray’s forces, however, are strong and determined. Last year’s Nobel Peace Prize is on the brink of a major victory or a growing war.
Frida Ghitis is a columnist for world affairs. A former CNN producer and correspondent, she is a regular contributor to CNN and The Washington Post. His WPR column appears every Thursday. Follow her on Twitter at @fridaghitis.
[ad_2]
