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NAIROBI, Kenya – The US-trained Somali commando force Danab is generally deployed to counter the Qaeda-linked group Al Shabab: liberating areas it controls, ending its attacks on government offices and beachside restaurants, and targeting senior Shabab operatives.
But with President Trump expected to withdraw US troops from Somalia, the highly specialized Somali force will be left in limbo, jeopardizing any security breakthrough it helped achieve in recent years, officials and observers said. The US military presence has largely focused on training, equipping and supporting the elite Somali unit of 850 soldiers.
“The US troops and the Danab unit they have trained are the ones that have taken critical leadership in disrupting terrorist activities,” said Hussein Sheikh-Ali, chairman of the Hiraal Institute research group and former national security adviser. of the Somali president. . “If the mentor leaves, the unit could literally collapse.”
Following the Pentagon’s formal announcement on Tuesday that the United States will reduce its military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller, a former Green Beret and senior counterterrorism official, is also expected to approve in the coming days. plans to eliminate most, if not all, of the more than 700 US troops in Somalia conducting training and counterterrorism missions.
The plans under discussion, which are part of Trump’s campaign promises, would be to hand those duties over to US forces in neighboring Djibouti and Kenya, according to senior US officials, allowing those stations to carry out attacks on Shabab.
The planned cuts come at a critical time as Somalia prepares for parliamentary and presidential elections in the coming months. But the vote is being undermined by disputes between federal and regional authorities, giving groups like Shabab and the Islamic State a chance to disrupt the polls.
Amid escalating election tensions, tribal conflict continues, hunger is widespread, and regional and international powers vie for influence in Somalia, a strategically important nation in the Horn of Africa.
Even in the face of relentless US drone attacks, the Shabab have been resilient and have grown into a more agile organization dominating large swaths of the interior of Somalia. The group continues to expand its bomb-making operations, infiltrating government institutions, and carrying out attacks against civilian and security targets in both Kenya and Somalia. He’s also awash in cash, raising millions of dollars in fees and payments and investing in real estate and businesses, according to a recent United Nations report.
If the United States withdraws from Somalia now, experts say it will not only present another major challenge for the Somali government, but will also put additional pressure on the ability of security agencies to deal with the Al Shabab threat.
“Al Shabab will frame this as a victory,” said Omar Mahmood, senior analyst for Somalia at International Crisis Group. “They will use it as a test of their ability to take on a world power like the United States and force them to leave Somalia.”
Somali officials have expressed concern about troop withdrawals. When the plans first emerged in October, President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed tweeted that a victory over the Shabab “can only be achieved through an ongoing security partnership and capacity development support” with the United States.
A senior official from the European Union delegation to Somalia, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said any troop withdrawal would help the Shabab and the consequences could be dire.
Nathan Sales, the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator, declined Tuesday to comment on plans to withdraw the troops. But he said the Shabab continued “to pose a significant threat within Somalia and increasingly in the region as well.”
It is unclear whether other parts of the US government, including the ambassador, other State Department diplomats, and the CIA offices located in a heavily fortified bunker at the airport in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, will also withdraw from Somali territory. .
Plans to withdraw troops come as a military conflict escalates in Ethiopia and spreads to neighboring countries, threatening a broader regional battle that could destabilize the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, which has great influence over Somali security developments, also recently withdrew thousands of its troops from Somalia, creating a security vacuum that extremist groups could exploit.
Rashid Abdi, a researcher and analyst from the Horn of Africa, said in a telephone interview that the United States’ withdrawal from Somalia would be a bad sign for other countries in the region, which is ravaged by the economic problems of the coronavirus pandemic and is still more stressed by ongoing violence. and because of the political tensions that are brewing in Tanzania and Uganda.
Major General J. Marcus Hicks, a retired commander of US special operations forces in Africa, said in an email that a sudden US withdrawal from Somalia and other hot spots “would undermine our security, damage our ability to lead internationally and strengthen our adversaries. “
General Hicks added that an abrupt withdrawal would also advance the interests of countries such as Russia, China and Iran, all of which have expanded their military, diplomatic and commercial interests in Africa often at the expense of American interests.
As with the troop reductions in Iraq and Afghanistan, the proposed reduction in Somalia is being carried out without consulting with advisers to the incoming Biden administration. President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. has expressed an interest in withdrawing US troops abroad, but not necessarily at a fast pace and with as little consultation with allies as President Trump ordered.
Some observers, including a senior Trump administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that a Biden administration could order some or all of the troops and their equipment to return to Somalia shortly after taking office.
Although the U.S. military left Somalia after rebels shot down two U.S. Black Hawk helicopters in 1993, killing 18 soldiers, it has since returned, funding stabilization projects, countering terrorist groups like Al Shabab, and reestablishing a diplomatic presence in the capital in 2018.
“I clearly believe that we will probably begin to see the return of the United States because Al-Shabaab is making a comeback,” Abdi, the investigator, said in a telephone interview. “This is a strategic country and there is no way the United States can leave Somalia.”
But congressional officials say the view of Biden sending troops back to Somalia, regardless of the merits, would be politically dangerous, especially with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.
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