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Sadly, a new military conflict is unfolding in the Horn of Africa. On November 4, 2020, a military conflict broke out between the forces of the Ethiopian federal government and the regional government of Tigray, in the north of the country.
The conflict is escalating at an alarming rate. Now it has escalated into a regional conflict with reports that Eritrean forces are supporting the central government against Tigray, with rockets being fired from the Tigray region in the Eritrean capital Asmara.
All communication with the conflict zone has been interrupted. There is practically no information from the interior of the Tigray region, which makes it difficult to assess the development of the conflict on the ground and its consequences for the civilian population.
However, as academics who have examined food security issues in the region since 1985, we are deeply concerned that the situation will lead to famine.
Food security in Tigray was already essential before the start of the armed conflict. Large areas were on their way to famine and crisis for a number of reasons, including an invasion of desert locusts with detrimental effects on crops.
The conflict doesn’t just affect the harvest season that has just begun. It has also led to the total disruption of potential government aid and funding to the region.
These recent events run counter to the immense gains made in the last three decades since the end of a devastating civil war that saw a great famine between 1984 and 1985. Back then, a dangerous cocktail of civil war combined with fragile soils, pressure Demographics and poverty and climatic adversity caused a famine of biblical proportions in the Ethiopian highlands of northern Ethiopia, including Tigray. An estimated 1 million people died of hunger.
Since then, Ethiopia has become one of the fastest growing large economies in Africa. There have also been notable improvements on various social fronts. Almost all children went to school, health services were vastly improved, and women’s rights were upheld. In Tigray, this growth was largely driven by grassroots efforts in rural areas.
But the fear is that Tigray is now heading for a humanitarian disaster at levels matching the great famine of 1984-1985.
Together with 12 international professionals who have worked in the area, we have launched an appeal to national and international authorities to make an urgent call for the start of negotiations and a ceasefire in northern Ethiopia. We have also called for the rapid delivery of food and other humanitarian aid to Tigray, particularly through the World Food Program and international aid organizations.
Lobsters and empty tents
Most of Tigray is part of the Tekezze River basin. It has a very rugged landscape characterized by river networks and frequent steep cliffs. About half of Tigray is covered by farmland, followed by bushland. Forests are rare.
The main livelihood is crop production and modest livestock rearing on small family farms. Cereals are the most important field crops and the staple diet. Desert locusts also feed on these.
Photo Miro Jacob
Desert locusts, while a recurring problem, have recently become a real pest in many parts of Ethiopia. This year, East Africa has had one of the worst outbreaks in about 70 years. The locusts have destroyed vast areas of cultivated land and numerous swarms are still active in northeast Ethiopia, where Tigray is found.
Eighty percent of Tigray’s population are subsistence farmers, which means they depend on their own agricultural products to survive. Even without war, the extensive damage caused by locusts had already put many of these farmers on the path to famine if food aid did not arrive in time.
To make matters worse, the 2020 harvest season should start soon. But there is little left to harvest because of the desert locusts. As people always have crops that are barely enough to feed a family, last year’s harvest has already been consumed at this time of year. These months of the year correspond to the annual hunger gap for many farmers in northern Ethiopia, after food supplies are depleted and before the next crops can be harvested.
We fear that the cereal baskets will be empty because of the conflict.
Without funds
The transfer of budgets from the Federal Government to Tigray stopped in September. This followed a decision by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to hold regional elections following the central government’s decision to postpone national elections due to COVID-19. In an act of defiance, the Tigray leaders held their own elections.
Lack of funds has impeded the proper functioning of civil society. Regional offices continue to operate, but staff are unsure of salary payments and necessary investments are being delayed. These offices play a key role in the “early warning system” to identify households in need of food aid.
Regional offices also organize the Productive Safety Net Program, a massive multi-donor funded program. The idea for this year was to monitor food crops across Ethiopia and predict food deficits well in advance so that the program could target food insecure households in time. Typically, they would receive 15 kg of grain per month in exchange for community work. About 1 million people in Tigray depend on this for food aid.
Supply chains are also affected. The central government has declared a state of emergency in the region. The electricity, Internet and telephone networks were cut and all banks were ordered to close. The banks reopened on November 16, but only small amounts can be withdrawn.
Furthermore, the region has been isolated from the outside world: the few roads that still connected Tigray with the rest of the country, as well as the borders with Eritrea, Djibouti and Sudan, have been closed. This makes it impossible to deliver food aid to Tigray.
Many have already died in this escalation of the conflict, but we fear that many more will starve if humanitarian assistance is not allowed into Tigray.
