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Diplomacy often allows tranquility to follow incivility by offering more for collusion than collision. The most unpredictable unions are possible, usually involving long-standing causes and struggles. Although a for-profit association is acclaimed and publicly endorsed in the political arena, cost is not the center of attention. Deliberate ignorance of that cost can reshape the entire socio-economic political infrastructure in unknown dimensions.
The Middle East, for example, has seen its political landscape gradually plunge into chaos due to the myopia of the rulers and their ill-advised strategies over three decades. Intervention by foreign powers, authoritarian regimes, proxy wars, and failed diplomacy have made matters worse.
Although “unholy”, the alliance between the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) and Israel would revitalize the economy of the Gulf States by reducing their dependence on oil and strengthening the viability of diplomatic interests. The latest development in the Middle East regarding the US-brokered agreement – the Abraham Agreement – between Israel and the two Arab states, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, could be the turning point of long-awaited stability. region of. .
The first announcement of the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates was made by President Trump in August 2020. Following in the footsteps of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain also took a step forward to reconcile with an enemy of the Levant and signed the agreement in September, along with the United Arab Emirates, under the supervision of the Trump administration. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain are now the third and fourth countries, respectively, to recognize Israel after Jordan (in 1979) and Egypt (in 1994).
What’s on the table?
Under the agreement, the Israeli administration will stop its systematic territorial annexation of 30% of the occupied areas in the West Bank. In return, Israel can establish its diplomatic setup in both Gulf States to increase its influence, relevance and reach in the region. With this arrangement, the Arab league has undermined its position on the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state.
The normalization of ties for the promotion of business, investment, communications, security, trade and mutual travel has marked a new era in Arab-Israeli relations, which have been disastrous since the second half of the 20.th century, and could pave new paths to resolve one of the most sensitive conflicts in human history.
Key developments
Diplomatic advancement has brought with it three important developments that may shape the geopolitical landscape in the years to come. First, the season of love between the key Arab states and Israel is in full swing, which puts a question mark on the “undivided loyalty” of the Arabs to the Palestinians. Economic, security and technological considerations could have prompted the Arabs to expand their economies and overcome their dependence on declining resources.
The agreement also signals the interest of the Emiratis and their confidence in devising a plan to shape regional policy in the best interest of all. This agreement has also changed the global narrative that the political and socio-economic configuration of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) revolves around the ideological foundations of pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism.
The US-brokered deal, which is the first step toward implementing the “Deal of the Century,” may worsen the bloody rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. With the UAE and Bahrain as key members of the Saudi front, Iran, in retaliation, may turn to Turkey and other Muslim sympathizers to balance the struggle for power in regional neighborhoods.
The UAE is already investing its political and economic efforts to secure its strategic interests and counter Turkish influence on the Red Sea coast of Africa and the Horn of Africa by acting as a mediator between hostile states and providing security assistance. It is also funneling money into the African economy through the development of ports and military bases such as the port of Assab and Berbera on the Red Sea of Eritrea in Somaliland.
While historical Arab powers, such as Syria and Egypt, are making blood sacrifices to maintain their authority in their own geographies, the Emiratis are crafting exceptional plans to lessen the growing influence of non-Arab Muslim powers, such as Iran and Turkey, in most of the world. MENA region.
Palestinian rage
Trump advocates hail him as one of the greatest diplomatic achievements of the United States in modern history, some have even critically hailed the president’s effort to the extent that he deserves the next Nobel Peace Prize.
The Palestinians, the real price payers, believe that the unusual merger negotiated by the United States simply drains their decades-long struggle down the drain, and that it clearly describes the superpower’s bias towards the Israeli regime.
Palestinians’ confidence in the Arab League has been declining over the years, especially due to speculation that Arab leaders had been involved in clandestine negotiations with the oppressors. Even if the allegations weren’t true, public acceptance of the Israeli narrative in international forums has hurt the feelings of Palestinians around the world.
The UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, in an interview with the BBC, said that Israeli Prime Minister Mr Netanyahu had plans to proceed with the final stages of annexation in early 2020, which the government of The UAE saw it as the perfect opportunity to present its proposals to ensure a viable implementation of the two-state solution.
The minister also assured that Netanyahu will most likely keep his promise and not risk his long-term desire to maintain diplomatic relations with the Arab League. The UAE also believes that the agreement has provided an opportunity for the Palestinians to reconsider their approach and forge a new one by engaging in fruitful discussions with Israel.
United States foreign policy
US foreign policy is influenced by powerful corporate lobbies with Jews as the main stakeholders. With the primary goal of crafting an effective solution to tame Arab-Israeli animosity, Jared Kushner, the president’s adviser on the Middle East, has played his cards very well so far.
In an interview with CBSN, he proudly expresses his victory by stating that this is the first peace agreement in the Middle East in 26 years. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, unlike Iraq and Syria, are immensely wealthy countries, so the United States will not need to provide financial assistance to increase its influence in the region. Therefore, it is understandable why the United States wants to help Israel achieve its long-term diplomatic ambitions.
President Trump firmly trusts Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and believes that he will eventually jump on the bandwagon once more countries follow suit. Furthermore, the United States has often pressured Arab states to pursue diplomacy with Israel rather than risk military clashes. More importantly, one of the main incentives for the United States to meddle in Gulf policy is to contain and isolate Iran, one of its archrivals.
What about Saudi Arabia?
According to the Middle East Monitor, Saudi Arabia, the Emir of the Muslim world, has yet to fully endorse the Israeli position and has stated that it will proceed with diplomatic recognition of Israel once the Palestinian state is fully established. However, the regime could offer support to Israel by joining the “two-state solution” regime under UN Watch.
The Saudi state’s reluctance to completely reject the Israeli narrative and accept the UAE-Bahrain-Israel deal somehow hints at its hidden love and support for the Zionist regime. Although the Kingdom has much to gain by welcoming Israel on board, its current stance on development could be the result of two dominant factors that elicited a mixed response from the Muslim world.
First, inspired by the tactics of the United States and Israel to bleed Iran out, the Saudis have political and economic incentives to join the two in defeating their sworn enemy. Second, Saudi Arabia, the custodian of two holiest Islamic sites and the owner of the world’s largest oil company (Aramco), is the leading entity of the Muslim world and therefore cannot afford the ruptures that arise. of unilateral decisions, especially with so many anti-Israeli states on board, such as Pakistan and Turkey.
So you’d rather take a backseat amid the changing political landscape and wait for someone else to take the bold step first, before actually opening up about your position on new developments.
Sudan joins the fight
Sudan’s diplomatic development with Israel has emerged after three months of the US-brokered peace agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok finally accepted a long-awaited friendly invitation from the Israeli Prime Minister to welcome and celebrate the new dawn of the Middle East, burying the grudges of the past.
Most of the credit, in this sense, goes to the UAE. The UAE has meddled in Sudan’s internal affairs for quite some time, accused of sponsoring and supporting the political machine in eastern Sudan. Despite receiving stiff opposition for joining the wave of normalization, from the perspective of the Sudanese government, the merger was necessary to cross his name off the list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Shortly after the diplomatic resurgence between Sudan and Israel, the United Arab Emirates granted more than $ 500 million in financial aid to Sudan to grease its rusty financial, economic and political machinery.
Sudan is also geographically important in terms of easy access to the rest of Africa from the Arabian Peninsula and Egypt.
Turkey and China have already been investing in billions and trying to increase their dominance on the African continent for the past few years, so it is understandable that by including Sudan in the team, the US and Israel can significantly balance the growing influence of China and China. Turks in the region.
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