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Weather itself has no significant effect on the spread of the coronavirus, a new study suggests.
The researchers found that changes in temperature and humidity account for only three percent of COVID-19 transmission.
However, behavioral changes that occur during the seasons, such as travel and time spent away from home, are responsible for up to 60 percent of the spread of the disease.
The team, from the University of Texas at Austin, say the findings provide evidence that warmer and colder temperatures have no impact and the reason the virus has been so transmissible is almost entirely due to behavior. human.
A new study from the University of Texas at Austin looked at how the coronavirus spread in the US between March and July 2020 by comparing temperature with data from cell phones. Weather had little influence on the spread of the coronavirus by no more than 3% both statewide and countywide (top)
Traveling and spending time away from home were the top two contributors to transmission, accounting for 34% and 26%, respectively (top)
The population was responsible for 23% of the cause of the spread and urban density, accounted for 13%. Pictured: People line up to vote at West Reading Borough Hall in Pennsylvania on Nov. 3
When the pandemic began, there were hopes that high temperatures could slow the spread of the coronavirus, as is often the case with other respiratory viruses such as the flu.
However, the summer months only sparked a second wave with cases peaking at 73,715 on July 24.
The team says that temperatures influence the way people act, which can indirectly influence the spread of the virus from one person to another.
“The effect of climate is low and other characteristics such as mobility have more of an impact than climate,” said lead author Dr. Dev Niyogi, a professor at UT Austin’s Jackson School of Geosciences and the Cockrell School of Engineering.
“In terms of relative importance, climate is one of the last parameters.”
For the study, published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, the team looked at how the virus spread in different areas between March 2020 and July 2020.
Time was defined as ‘equivalent air temperature’, which merged air temperature and humidity to form a single value.
The researchers also analyzed data from cell phones in US states and counties to study the travel habits of Americans.
Some studies have suggested that latitude has an impact on the number of coronavirus cases.
While a large proportion of countries along the mid-latitude have more infections, the team says this is negated by the fact that a greater number of populations live in these areas.
Across the state and county, they found that weather had little influence on the spread of the coronavirus at no more than three percent.
There was also no indication that one specific type of climate, hot or cold, spread over another.
However, human behavior was found to be the clear influence.
Traveling and spending time away from home, also called homestay, were the top two contributing factors to COVID-19 transmission, accounting for 34 percent and 26 percent, respectively.
The next two important factors were population, responsible for 23 percent of the reason for the spread, and urban density, which accounted for 13 percent.
“We shouldn’t think of the problem as something driven by time and climate,” said co-author Dr. Sajad Jamshidi, a research assistant at Purdue University in Indiana.
“We must take personal precautions, be aware of urban exposure factors.”
Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that the virus can be transmitted in any type of climate and that there is no reason to believe that cold weather can kill it.
The UN health agency says rain and snow could dilute any traces of the virus on benches or other external objects, but transmission from surfaces is not believed to be a major factor in the pandemic.
Scientists say the real concern about cold weather is that lower temperatures are more likely to keep people indoors, potentially in more crowded spaces where the virus can spread more easily.
The WHO and others have also warned that in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, transmission occurs more easily because the virus can spread through the air and infectious particles can remain suspended in the air for several hours.
