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Updated: October 29, 2020 10:00:52 am
People wearing masks walk across the Alexandre III bridge in Paris, Sunday, October 25, 2020. A curfew has been imposed aimed at curbing the spiraling spread of the coronavirus in many regions of France, including Paris and its suburbs. (AP Photo / Lewis Joly)
Germany and France will clamp down on the movement for at least a month, approaching strict lockdowns in the spring as Europe seeks to regain control of the rapid spread of the coronavirus.
The two largest economies in the European Union will close bars, restaurants and non-essential services, while allowing schools and most businesses to operate. The approach of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to strike a balance between protecting public health and avoiding another debilitating blow to the economy.
“Today is a difficult day, also for policy makers,” Merkel told a news conference in Berlin. “We know what we are demanding of the people.”
France’s shutdown will begin on Friday, while Germany’s restrictions will go into effect on Monday. The measures are part of a series of stricter measures imposed by governments across Europe, where more than 210,000 people have died from the disease and nearly 6.5 million have been infected.
Germany, Britain, Italy, Spain and Greece posted record daily increases in cases on Wednesday, while France’s weekly pace has been climbing for the past 26 days.
Curbs of France
From Friday until at least December 1:
* Bars and restaurants will close
* National travel prohibited
* No public meetings
* Non-essential retailers will close
* Companies are encouraged to work remotely if possible
* Still open in contrast to spring restrictions:
* Schools to stay in session
* Retirement homes open for visitors
Macron painted a bleak picture of France’s fight against the pandemic, warning that the country needs a “brutal brake” on infections. He said there could be 400,000 French deaths from the disease in months if nothing is done, and the intensive care facility will have 9,000 patients, close to capacity, by mid-November, based on current trends.
“The virus is circulating in France at a speed that not even the most pessimistic forecast anticipated,” Macron said in a nationally televised address Wednesday night. “The measures we have taken have been insufficient to counteract a wave that affects all of Europe.”
What our economists say
“The options discussed by the government so far could remove 0.8-2% of GDP from the fourth quarter if they remain in place for a month. This is in addition to the 1.1% contraction that we already forecast for the fourth quarter ”.
The French leader opened the prospect of easing some brakes if there is an improvement in two weeks. The aim of the measures is to reduce daily cases to 5,000, far from the current average of more than 39,000 a day.
Patients in hospitals and occupying intensive care beds are already several times higher than at the beginning of the first confinement. Hospitalizations stood at about 19,000 on Tuesday, compared with just over 2,500 on March 17, according to data from health authorities. About 3,000 patients are in intensive care units, compared with about 700 on the eve of spring closure.
While France is increasing intensive care capacity, it is not enough to handle the spread of the disease, Macron said.
“A colossal effort was made with training and investment but it is not enough to face this wave,” he said. There is no magic bullet. We cannot build a different capacity in a few months. “
National Effort
European leaders have been forced to give in and reactivate the strict restrictions, which hit economies in the second quarter, as infection rates soar and hospitals come under stress.
Merkel called for a concerted national effort to combat the pandemic. The partial closure was agreed after tense talks with the leaders of Germany’s 16 states; some with less severe outbreaks resisted the tougher restrictions imposed by the federal government. Tensions were high before the meeting, which was moved forward two days in a sign of greater urgency.
With the public weary of the pandemic measures and protests on the rise, the government sought to ease the pressure by making up to 10 billion euros ($ 11.7 billion) available in aid to businesses affected by the measures, including reimbursement. up to 75% of sales lost in November.
Germany restrictions
From Monday to the end of November:
* Restaurants, bars, discos and similar establishments will be closed.
* All leisure facilities such as gyms, theaters, opera houses, concert halls, fairs, cinemas and amusement parks will be closed.
* People may only go out with members of their own household and one more and meetings will be limited to * * 10 people; violations would carry penalties
* Citizens are urged to refrain from private travel and family visits; hotel accommodation restricted to non-tourist purposes
Stay open:
* Schools and nurseries
* Supermarkets and hairdressers, under current hygienic regulations
Bloomberg Economics estimated that the impact of the measures will likely be much less than the April lockdown, but still depress German output by about 0.6 percentage points in the fourth quarter.
After failing to secure new measures two weeks ago, Merkel’s proposal was adopted almost entirely after cases have emerged since then. The German leader said 75% of new infections cannot be traced back to their source and hospitals are at risk of being overwhelmed within weeks if trends continue.
But there were still signs of division. The state of Thuringia has called for the German parliament to be asked to declare a national health emergency and back the measures, largely an effort to control the authority of the Merkel administration. Officials will meet again in two weeks to assess the impact of the measures.
“I am grateful that we have reached an agreement here after long discussions,” Merkel said. “We do not want to fall into a national health emergency.”
