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New research on the dreaded asteroid Apophis has found that chemical reactions taking place on the surface of the space rock could slightly push the 370-meter-wide asteroid onto a collision course with Earth. In the early 2000s, NASA feared that Apophis might hit Earth in 2029, giving it a 2.8 percent chance of colliding.
However, this was eventually ruled out by experts who said it would safely pass our planet in this decade.
The next time it will pass our planet in 2068, and NASA had believed that there was no possibility of a collision back then.
However, new calculations from the University of Hawai’i Institute for Astronomy (IfA) show that there is a chance, albeit a very small one, that the asteroid could impact in 2068.
Astronomer Dave Tholen and his collaborators have announced the detection of a small Yarkovsky acceleration on the surface of the asteroid.
The Yarkovsky effect occurs when an asteroid or celestial body changes its orbit due to a small push of heat, either from itself expelling gases or the gravitational push and pull of celestial bodies, including the Sun and Earth.
In this case, scientists have discovered a small thermal reaction that could slightly alter the course of Apophis and send it towards Earth.
According to Tholan, the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth in 2068 are one in 530,000.
While that may seem like an almost insignificant amount, to put it in perspective, the chance of you winning the EuroMillions jackpot is one in 139,838,160.
READ MORE: Asteroid News: Astronomers Photograph an Asteroid ‘Extremely Close’
Mr. Tholan said: “We have known for some time that an impact with the Earth is not possible during the close approach of 2029.
“The new observations we obtained with the Subaru telescope earlier this year were good enough to reveal the Yarkovsky acceleration of Apophis, and show that the asteroid is moving away from a purely gravitational orbit by about 170 meters per year, which it’s enough to keep the 2068 impact scenario in play. “
A statement from the University of Hawai’i said: “All asteroids need to re-radiate the energy they absorb from sunlight as heat to maintain thermal equilibrium, a process that changes the asteroid’s orbit slightly.
“Before the detection of the Yarkovsky acceleration at Apophis, astronomers had concluded that a potential impact with Earth in 2068 was impossible.
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“Detection of this effect acting on Apophis means that the 2068 impact scenario is still a possibility.
“More observations are being made to refine the amplitude of the Yarkovksy effect and how it affects the orbit of Apophis.
“Astronomers will know well before 2068 if there is any possibility of impact.”
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