With 87% of the votes counted, Ardern’s center-left Labor Party has won 48.9% of the vote, meaning that it seems likely that his party will get the highest result that any party has achieved since it was introduced. the current political system in 1996.
“Tonight, New Zealand has shown the Labor Party its strongest support in at least 50 years,” Ardern said in a powerful victory speech Saturday night, referring to the difficult times ahead for New Zealand. “And I can promise you: we will be a governing party for all New Zealanders.”
Coalitions are the norm in New Zealand, where no party has obtained a majority of votes under the current system.
The main Labor opposition, the center-right National Party, is at 27%, down from 44% in the last elections and probably the party’s worst result since 2002.
National leader Judith Collins said she called on Ardern to acknowledge defeat and to congratulate Ardern on an “outstanding result” for the Labor Party.
The results are still being counted. Final results will be released in three weeks after special votes are counted, including those cast by New Zealanders living abroad.
The preliminary count also shows a significant shift to the left, with Labor gaining significant momentum in 37% of the last elections, while its current coalition partner, the Green Party, has 7.6%, above the 6.3% of the last elections.
Labor has been hovering around 50% of the vote for much of election night. It probably won’t be clear until the final results are whether Labor can rule alone or will need to form a coalition with the Greens, but before the election, Victoria University politics professor Claire Timperley said Labor would be ” fools “if they didn’t. have a conversation with the Greens about working together, even if Labor won an outright majority.
The other current partner in the Labor coalition, New Zealand First, has not won enough votes to return to parliament, while the right-wing ACT party is currently at 8%, up from 0.5% in the last election.
Ardern’s likely re-election was driven by his “do your best, early” approach to handling the coronavirus, which has helped New Zealand avoid the kind of devastating outbreaks seen elsewhere. The country was one of the first to close its borders, and Ardern announced a national shutdown in March when it only had 102 cases.
New Zealand has reported fewer than 2,000 total cases and 25 deaths since the pandemic began.
Polls earlier in the year suggested that National and Labor may be in a tight race. Ardern had great international popularity, but at home some were disappointed by his lack of progress on key promises, including addressing the overheated housing market.
But all that changed during the pandemic. Support for Ardern soared, even as New Zealand posted its biggest quarterly economic decline on record and a second outbreak in the country’s largest city, Auckland, prompted the prime minister to delay elections by a month.
National’s Collins, the party’s third leader this year, featured her pro-business party as best positioned to handle the economic fallout of the pandemic, but struggled to gain ground against one of New Zealand’s most popular leaders.
“We always knew it was going to be difficult, right?” Collins said during his award speech on Saturday. “We will take time to reflect, revise and change. National will emerge from this defeat as a stronger, more disciplined and more connected party.”
“I tell everyone: we will be back.”
Early attendance registration
As of Friday, just 2 million people, or 57% of all registered voters, had already cast their early ballot at the polls across the country, including Collins and Ardern.
Lara Greaves, a professor of New Zealand politics at the University of Auckland, said that the high level of early voting may have been related to Covid-19 – voters wanted to avoid the lines and the possibility of a new Covid-19 outbreak. it could affect your ability. vote on the day.
He said turnout could also have been prompted by two referendums running parallel to the elections, one on legalizing euthanasia and another on legalizing recreational cannabis use. Their preliminary results will be announced later this month.
What to expect from a second Ardern term
When Ardern became Prime Minister in 2017 at the age of 37, she was New Zealand’s third leading woman and one of the youngest leaders in the world. Within a year, she had given birth in office, only the second world leader to do so.
He also won accolades for his empathetic handling of major crises. After the 2019 terrorist attack on two Christchurch mosques that left 51 people dead, he introduced rapid changes to the gun law and donned a hijab when meeting with the local Muslim community.
After White Island, an active volcanic island frequented by tourists, erupted last December, killing 21, Ardern was quickly back on the ground, hugging first responders.
But while he promised to lead a “transformative” government, his critics argue that he has not done enough to address inequality, child poverty, climate change and the housing market.
Ardern appears poised to face another difficult period ahead, as she attempts to address those issues as she leads the country through the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. But political analysts don’t expect flashy flagship policies; instead, they predict that Ardern will continue to make incremental changes.
“Real change requires steps that bring people with us,” Ardern said in the country’s final election debate on Thursday. “I agree with my record … I haven’t finished yet.”
