Ethiopia: Tigrai Elections: Test of Ethiopia’s Federal Democracy

10/16/2020 Ethiopia, Health, World



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Last week, Ethiopia’s Tigrai region held elections in accordance with the established schedule, but in defiance of the federal government headed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The elections were peaceful and credible. The result is two governments, one in the Tigraian capital, Mekelle, and the other in the federal capital, Addis Ababa, that do not recognize the other’s legitimacy. It is the gravest political crisis in Ethiopia’s recent history.

The origin of the dispute and crisis is the federal government’s decision to postpone national elections without consensus on the legality of continuing in power beyond the date on which his constitutional mandate expires, which is this month. The pretext for the postponement was the Covid-19 pandemic; but many believe that it was rather the motivation of the prime minister to avoid an electoral test for his new and still to consolidate the Party of Prosperity.

The Ethiopian People’s House of Representatives decided to postpone federal and regional elections until such time as the WHO declares the end of the global pandemic and its health risks. The upper house, the Chamber of Federation (HoF), then decided that the current government would remain in power until the indeterminate date of the elections.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and several other opposition groups accepted the delay in the elections, but called for a dialogue to agree on how to transition to an elected government when the current term expires at the end of September 2020. the extension was unconstitutional and illegitimate.

The TPLF went beyond explaining its opposition and its government declared that it would hold its regional elections as scheduled, referring to constitutional provisions recognizing its right to do so. He demanded that the National Board of Elections (NEBE) hold its planned regional elections. However, NEBE rejected this and the region had to find a way to execute them on its own.

Preparations for the Tigrai regional election

On August 6, the Tigrai State House amended article 48/2 of its regional constitution and changed the first post-post clause of the constitution to a mixed electoral system. It determined that 80% of the parliamentary seats will be covered by constituency and the remaining 20% ​​for minority parties will be assigned through proportional representation.[1] The State Chamber also instituted the Tigrai Electoral Commission and shortly thereafter appointed its commissioners in consultation with regional opposition parties that were willing to participate in the elections.

The commission inherited the previous regional structure from the National Electoral Commission, reoriented it with the new electoral system, determined the registration and voting centers, declared its electoral calendar, and continued its preparations. 2,672 electoral and registration colleges were organized in 38 electoral districts. The registration of candidates and voters was completed on time. 2.7 million voters and more than 663 candidates (in ten and three days respectively) registered to compete for the 190 regional parliamentary seats.[2]

Electoral process, results and legitimacy in the eyes of the Tigrai people

The vote took place on September 9 and 2.6 million voters (97%) cast their votes. Early voter alignment and the fact that 80% of registered voters cast their ballots before noon at most polling stations demonstrated the eagerness of voters to exercise their right. The vote count was completed on the same day and its results were also published.[3] The Election Commission announced that the TPLF won all but one of the electoral district seats for the regional council.[4]

For many Tigraians, the choice consisted of safeguarding their collective democratic rights and regional autonomy rather than competing for seats as such.[5] The vote was a demonstration of Tigrai’s constitutionally enshrined right to self-determination. Many also saw it as a way to challenge the federal government for what they believed to be its authoritarian nature.[6] Success is measured by credible conduct of the process.

However, the fact that the TPLF dominated the results also speaks volumes about the election playing field. The TPLF had all the advantages of a headline. The hostility of the federal government towards the Tigraians contributed to a sense of solidarity that was translated into support for the TPLF’s demonstrated determination.

People also felt the need for an experienced and resourceful ruling party in a time of stress. Additionally, opposition parties have reported wrongdoing, including a smear campaign against them, and voter education that focused on guiding the electorate on who to choose rather than how to cast their vote.[7] Despite these concerns, the five contending parties agreed that the Tigrai and Tigraians won the elections in the sense that the exercise allowed the people of Tigrai to choose their own legitimate government.

The reaction of the federal government

The position of the federal government towards the Tigrai elections has changed. In a televised speech on May 7, 2020, Prime Minister Abiy declared that his government would act with full force against any “illegal” election or any attempt to seize power unconstitutionally.[8] In his televised discussion with opposition leaders on July 29, Abiy changed his tune; he chose to disparage the election by calling it a “sham election”; and even expressed the opinion that his government does not care if the elections continue as long as the incumbent remains in power because his government has already determined that the TPLF should remain in power on an interim basis until the next elections after the pandemic. .[9]

On September 5, the HoF, in its closed-door emergency meeting, ruled that the planned Tigrai elections were “unconstitutional” and therefore “invalid”.[10] On September 8, the eve of Election Day, the prime minister appeared on television and declared that his government is not bothered by the elections as it considers them a “village meeting and conference”, and ruled out any military intervention. However, his government ordered all national media outlets not to report on the “unconstitutional election” of the Tigrai region and prohibited international journalists from flying to the region to report on it.[11]

At an emergency meeting of the House of Representatives on September 22, the House heard the report of the Ministry of Health 19 and its recommendation to open schools and hold federal and regional elections while implementing the necessary precautions for Covid-19 and agreed your recommendations.

At a follow-up meeting on September 25, the House decided that the election would take place in 9-12 months and ordered NEBE to begin its preparations. However, the decision was rejected by the TPLF, and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) in its previous statement had called for a transitional government until an elected government is formed.[12]

A new cycle of crisis

PM Abiy has few options in the future. Attempting to finish off the Tigraians by force would automatically lead to a bloody civil war whose end results are not predictable. Keeping quiet is not an option either, as the federal government has outlawed the regional government. Furthermore, keeping silent also encourages a number of other regions that advocate for greater autonomy to take their own actions in accordance with their respective demands.[13]

In October 2020, the HoF decided that the federal government would toughen relations with the Tigrai region and continue to work with local governments.[14] The upper house’s decision authorizes the federal government to take any action, including cutting the federal subsidy budget to the Tigrai region, an action that will undo the federation and force the Tigrai region to act as an independent state.

The TPLF formed its new elected government on September 24, 2020 and declared that it will defy federal laws enacted as of October 5, 2020 and called for a transitional government to be formed from that day through a process of dialogue. and inclusive reconciliation.[15] It also called its members who worked for federal institutions that represent the region.

Whether the federal government can eliminate the regional government and work with the local institutions that answer to the regional government and whether the regional government will succeed in working with the federal institutions while severing its relations with the federal authorities that preside over these institutions remains to be seen. Whichever path the parties take has far-reaching implications for the very future of Ethiopia’s federal system.[16]. This multifaceted crisis[17] and the slide towards fragmentation is happening in the eyes of all regional, international and bilateral development partners who have a legal, political and moral responsibility to act and intervene, but who are now doing nothing on the public record.