[ad_1]
One US presidential candidate wants to raise taxes, the other to lower them. One will pursue an ongoing trade war, the other may reduce tensions. And neither of them will do much without congressional approval.
The economic policies proposed by President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden offer markedly different visions of the world’s largest economy and its global role, ahead of the tense November 3 election.
Biden’s agenda is aimed at the poorest Americans and includes a series of policies that would mark a sharp turnaround from Trump’s time in office, while also building on the policies of Barack Obama, whom he served as vice president.
Trump, by comparison, has offered what analysts complain are few details about his plan, other than a promise to bring back the comparatively good economy and the record low employment level that Americans experienced until March, when the coronavirus pandemic ended. with that.
“I would classify the Biden plan as really an expansion of existing social programs,” said John Ricco, senior analyst for the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania.
“In contrast, the Trump plan, to the extent that such a plan exists, is … taking on the same themes the administration has pursued for the past four years.
The extent to which either candidate can get what they want will depend on which party controls Congress, which is currently divided between the Republican-controlled Senate and the Democratic-controlled House.
With polls showing the former vice president ahead and many key Senate races tilted toward Democrats, analysts are cautiously approaching the chances a Biden victory offers, assuming Democrats win the Senate.
“Democratic control of the House, Senate and White House would produce the biggest changes in policy, but if Republicans retain the Senate or the White House, we expect new limited federal policies, fiscal or otherwise,” JP said. Morgan on a note.
Biden’s economic platform has focused on the slogan of “rebuild better,” with promises to create jobs through infrastructure improvements and clean energy financed with $ 4.1 trillion in taxes over the next decade, the majority levied on big business and the rich.
Trump has promised to restore what he calls “the largest economy in history,” the period from his inauguration in 2017 to March; After a decade of economic expansion, unemployment was at a 50-year low.
Polls have shown voters so far side with Biden as the United States grapples with the world’s worst coronavirus outbreak. Then, on Friday, the race changed when Trump reported that he had contracted the virus.
The two men’s platforms appear to be aimed at benefiting different sectors of the economy, said Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros, economists at Moody’s Analytics.
Biden’s platform targets the poor and middle class, whose “tax bill will remain roughly the same as it is today, but are major beneficiaries of increased public spending on education, healthcare, housing, a plethora of other social programs and the economy. “Zandi and Yaros wrote.
A Trump presidency would likely see the extension of tax cuts passed by Congress in 2017, and “the benefits will go largely to higher-income households and businesses, while government spending will be cut on healthcare and a variety of social programs, “they wrote.
If Democrats succeed in taking over Congress and the White House, Moody’s predicts that full employment, as seen before the pandemic, could return as soon as the second quarter of 2022. If Republicans gain equal control, full employment It will be restored only in early 2024.
However, Moody’s most likely scenario is that neither Trump nor Biden will win the White House and Congress, and employment will not be restored until sometime in 2023.
While many of his economic policies are aimed at winning over individual Americans, companies are looking at the two candidates’ different business approaches and, in particular, towards China, with which Trump has launched a trade war.
More than 3,400 companies from all sectors, including heavyweights like Tesla, Mercedes-Benz, Home Depot and Ralph Lauren, have sued the Trump administration over customs duties on Chinese exports to the United States.
A President Biden could reverse those policies, but Ricco says he can go so far.
“Both candidates are envisioning a platform in which there is much more skepticism towards free trade,” he said. “The tools to get there are different.”
cs-jul / bbk
