Week 3 review: Newcastle 1 v Tottenham 1

What can numbers really tell you about a game? Today’s 1-1 tie numbers suggest a game in which Spurs dominated Newcastle and were unlucky enough to walk away without all three points. They controlled possession: 66% to 34%. They completed 640 passes to Newcastle’s 317 and 818 touches to Newcastle’s 494. They took 23 shots, 12 of them on target, while Newcastle made 6 with just one on target – that shot on goal was Callum Wilson’s penalty in the 7th minute of stoppage time.

Four minutes earlier, Newcastle had received a free kick in the Tottenham half when Pierre-Emile Højbjerg made the lazy error of dirty joelinton being fouled by Joelinton. Shelvey took the free kick and Andy Carroll jumped up and found his ball flying into the box. Eric Dier, marking Carroll, made the classic mistake of – checks notes – have arms. More importantly, his arms were in the way of Carroll’s header, and Dier stupidly forgot to move them out of the way by the time the ball traveled the three inches between the two players.

After a VAR control, Peter Bankes awarded the penalty and Wilson placed it at home to tie the game at 1-1. In response, Mourinho stormed down the tunnel, clearly furious that Steve Bruce had shown him a fraud. Sure, the stats imply that Mourinho’s Spurs dominated the game in every way imaginable. But examine those stats a little closer and don’t they reveal ruthless efficiency to Steve Bruce’s team? They don’t need to control possession; tiki-taka is just a fancy Spanish word for wasted energy. They don’t need twelve shots on goal, they only need one. In fact, Newcastle’s three Premier League goals this season have come from just three shots on target in total. Luck? Perhaps. This is most likely proof that Steve Bruce is the best shooting coach in the league. Looking at the numbers in this way, we can easily empathize with Mourinho’s anger. He had come to play checkers. Steve Bruce plays chess.

Photo by Andrew Boyers – Pool / Getty Images

Wish I had seen the numbers. Unfortunately, I saw the game. And while my hopes weren’t high before kickoff, they plummeted when I realized Isaac Hayden wasn’t playing in midfield. Oh God. It’s 5-4-1.

For the past three years, Newcastle fans have endured hours of hectic football watching 5-4-1 – it was Benítez’s formation of choice and one that Bruce employed for the first half of last year. And although I still have good memories of Benítez, I don’t watch the games again. In 2017/18, Newcastle scored 39 goals (13th) and allowed 47 (6th). In 2018/19, they scored 42 (16th) and allowed 48 (tied for 7th place). Nice jogo.

Yet despite all the 1-1, 0-0 and generally uninspiring football, we at least saw, in the second half of the 18/19 season, a glimmer of Benitez’s positive vision. At the start of Week 23, Newcastle ranked 18th, having spent nearly half the season in the relegation zone. In their next 14 games, Newcastle scored 27 points (out of 45 that season) and, compared to the rest of the league in the same stretch, they were fifth in points, fourth in goals and tied for fourth in goals conceded.

What had changed? Well, on the one hand, Benítez had gotten his signing, Miguel Almirón, that winter: he had allegedly threatened to resign if the club canceled the deal. Benítez quickly integrated Almirón into an attacking trio of himself, Ayoze Pérez and Salomón Rondón. And while Almirón did not record assists or goals, he created more chances per 90 than anyone on the Newcastle squad as he played in a new and deeper role. In the ten games that Ayoze, Almirón and Rondon played together, Newcastle won five, drew two and lost three, for an average of 1.7 points per game (compared to 1.0 points per game without Almirón).

As boring as Rafa’s 5-4-1 was, at least it was his training. He had a weak squad with limited depth and chose the formation for practicality. However, he committed to training and drilled his system into his players. Games were rarely entertaining and Newcastle didn’t score many goals, but their defense kept them going. And during the half-season after Almirón joined, Newcastle looked like a team that could score goals and win games. Benítez showed us a different vision of the team, and of the football, that he hoped to build.

Photo by James Baylis – AMA / Getty Images

Comparatively, we have been in Steve Bruce for a year and his vision is unclear. He used the formation he inherited during the first half of last year, but admitted, after switching to four at the rear, “it was never how I wanted us to play.” Well, what is that shape? Do you see Almirón as an extreme or a ten? Wilson as a lone striker or the best of a couple? His choices so far this season have been, at first glance, reactive. The 4-4-2 worked against West Ham, so he kept it for Brighton. They conceded three against Brighton, making it 5-4-1 for Tottenham, a setup that possibly benefited Tottenham. They were able to hold possession comfortably, and when Newcastle’s few counterattacks inevitably failed, Tottenham sped up their passes and exploited the newly discovered space. It was only thanks to a brilliant performance by Karl Darlow that Newcastle were able to tie the game with just one goal.

Of course, Bruce is integrating multiple new signings, one of whom is still recovering his full physical condition, while dealing with various injuries. But we know that Wilson, Lewis, Fraser, and Hendrick were signings that Bruce wanted; presumably you have an idea of ​​how they fit into your team. With just those four signings, Bruce has had more control over the composition of his team than Benitez.

Only three games in the season, of course, it’s too early to call it one way or another. We are all aware that Bruce is not Guardiola, but there is enough quality and experience in this team that he doesn’t need to be Guardiola to keep them. He has the players he wanted; now you need a coherent view of how they will play.