Microsoft’s plans for Bethesda on Xbox Series X seem clearer now

I always try to admit when I’m wrong, and in this case, I’m preemptively admitting that I am. probably I’ll be wrong about a starting position I took when Microsoft first announced that it acquired Bethesda for $ 7.5 billion.

My immediate reaction was that Microsoft probably wouldn’t make Bethesda games Xbox exclusive in the future. Why? Some reasons:

• They would still make a killing as a publisher selling dozens of millions of copies of future Bethesda games on PlayStation.
• They still have a huge advantage in offering them “free” as part of Game Pass, while Sony would charge $ 60- $ 70 at launch.
• Phil Spencer has previously spoken that he doesn’t like exclusives and the whole concept of “us vs. Sony” console warfare, and wants to expand the games across multiple platforms.
• They paid $ 2.5 billion for Minecraft, and they didn’t end up restricting that game from being on PlayStation.

And yet the more I think about this and the more information comes out, the more I think so, Microsoft probably is will make most if not all future Bethesda games Xbox / PC / Game Pass / xCloud exclusives.

Why? Some other things to consider.

Shortly after this news was announced, Phil Spencer said that while the current deals Bethesda has with rival consoles would be honored (Deathloop ironically is a PlayStation exclusive), future titles would be “case by case”, which doesn’t sound like. very promising. to share for free and open with Sony (or in theory, Nintendo) in the future.

Next, you don’t actually spend $ 7.5 billion on a publisher just to only put your games on Game Pass and not make them completely exclusive. If they wanted to make that kind of deal, they probably could have done it without buying Bethesda outright. There were rumors before this that Microsoft was looking to buy Bungie, but instead of doing so (for $ 1-2 billion or whatever it cost), they managed to land a Game Pass deal where future content (at least expansions old and Beyond Light) is launching on Game Pass. So why would a direct purchase of an entire company (literally the largest developer acquisition in gaming history) have the same kind of Game Pass launch idea? without exclusiveness?

Also this week, Amazon announced its new Luna cloud gaming service that will offer things like publisher-specific channels – for example, a Ubisoft subscription through Luna that gives you X amount of Ubisoft games for a fee. So with this purchase, Microsoft is not only fighting Sony, it is fighting preemptively with companies like Google and Amazon and these rival cloud services. Now that Microsoft owns Bethesda, there is roughly a zero percent chance that you will ever see a “Bethesda channel” on Luna, as Microsoft will keep it for Game Pass and xCloud only. They’ve also made a deal with EA Access, which should keep it out of Amazon’s grasp. They’re starving to future competition before they really become competition.

Finally, I have never really believed Microsoft when they talk that there is no real rivalry between them and Sony and that there is no console war, and all of that is silly and pointless. While fan wars may be silly and pointless, Microsoft is still fundamentally a business and they want Xbox to be the world leader in games. One of the biggest things that works against Xbox when compared to rivals like Nintendo and Sony? Lack of exclusives. And you don’t really buy an immediate solution to that problem for $ 7.5 billion and don’t take advantage of it.

Microsoft has been relying on Halo, Gears, Forza, and a few others forever, and as they develop new titles with other studios they have assembled or purchased, the Bethesda deal instantly get Starfield, Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Doom, Wolfenstein, Prey, Dishonored and many, many more series as future theoretical exclusives, if they exercise that option. And at this point, I can see now that there really is no reason for them not to. They want you to play on Xbox and Game Pass, not on PlayStation or Switch or Luna or Stadia. That’s fundamentally what it comes down to, despite what all his talk of “we’re all just friends playing” might suggest.

So, new prediction: a bunch of Bethesda Xbox exclusives on the way. Count on that.

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