[ad_1]
A group of climate scientists have reported that the upcoming melting of the ice sheet is expected to have a major impact on global climate. This finding was based on the latest climate modeling study that examined the effects of accelerated melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) on nearby climate.
Shaina Sadai, the first author of the study and a graduate student at the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass Amherst), along with Alan Condron of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Rob DeConto of the UMass Amherst and David Pollard of the Pennsylvania State University, have informed the details. at Scientific advances diary.
The researchers’ study predicts how upcoming weather conditions may change under conditions of low and high greenhouse gas emissions, while explaining the rapid melting of the AIS.
Although researchers have long known that the next meltwater influx from Antarctica will affect the Southern Ocean and global climate, ice sheet processes are not currently included in most advanced climate prediction simulations, Sadai stated.
Together with his collaborators, Sadai reported that their new model with aggregated ice melt data exposes the interaction processes.
In this study, Sadai’s task was to introduce the accelerated melting of AIS and icebergs into simulations of Earth’s upcoming climate. An important step was adding the details of when and where meltwater will enter the ocean.
We discovered that future meltwater from Antarctica generates huge amounts of thick sea ice around the continent. With higher greenhouse gas emissions, the ice sheet melts faster, which in turn leads to more fresh water flowing into the ocean and increased production of sea ice..
Shaina Sadai, first study author and graduate student, University of Massachusetts Amherst
All these productions of sea ice and additional meltwater significantly slow the rate of impending warming in Antarctica, the team reported, which is apparently good news. And most unbelievably, the effects of the weather are not simply limited to Antarctica.
Condron, who was previously at UMass Amherst, noted that the cooling effects are experienced around the world.
All that said, it’s important to note that this is not a global “ cooling ” scenario – average global temperatures would still be about 3 degrees Celsius warmer than today due to human greenhouse gas emissions, even with the cooling effects of this melt water on the climate..
Alan Condron, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute
Although atmospheric warming has slowed, deep sea waters around Antarctica are warming faster in the researchers’ model. The reason is that the new sea ice prevents heat from escaping from the deeper waters into the air, Condron explained.
“Ocean groundwater warms up to one degree Celsius, which can increase melting under parts of the ice sheet. This could make the ice sheet more unstable and accelerate rates of sea level rise beyond current projections.“Condron added.
Our results demonstrate the need to accurately account for meltwater ingress from ice sheets if we are to make reliable climate predictions.
Shaina Sadai, first study author and graduate student, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Sadai emphasized that the upcoming delayed warm-up encountered by the team in the latest simulations may seem like good news. However, it must be remembered that severe warming and sea level rise will continue to occur with persistent greenhouse gas emissions, which will have an impact on both coastal communities and global ecosystems.
DeConto and Pollard added that the next stability of the AIS and the next rise in sea level will be decided based on which process wins, that is, atmospheric cooling or ocean warming. The aim of the researchers’ ongoing study is to answer this question.
Magazine reference:
Sadai, S., et al. (2020) Future climate response to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet caused by anthropogenic warming. Scientific advances. doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169.
Source: https://www.umass.edu/
