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HISTORIAN PAPER models say a lot about political leaders. Suga Yoshihide is Toyotomi Hidenaga, the younger brother and right hand of Toyotomi Hideyoshi, the best known warlord who united Japan in the 16th century. As Abe Shinzo’s loyal chief cabinet secretary for nearly eight years, Suga played a similar role behind the scenes, excelling in mobilizing Japan’s sprawling bureaucracy. Despite his position of power, he was unrecognizable to many voters until last year when he revealed the name of Japan’s new imperial age, earning himself the nickname “Reiwa Ojisan”, or Uncle Reiwa.
Following Abe’s resignation due to health problems on August 28, Suga has taken center stage. “Now I’m targeting Hideyoshi,” he said in a chapter of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) during the short campaign to replace Abe as party leader. On September 14 he won a resounding victory in the LDPof the internal contest, collecting 377 of the 535 possible votes. Two days later he was sworn in as the 99th Prime Minister of Japan. Promising continuity and stability in the midst of the covid-19 pandemic, he secured the support of the party’s heavyweights. More than half of his cabinet are holdovers from the Abe administration; newcomers include Abe’s brother, Kishi Nobuo, as defense minister.
Although Suga and Abe’s destinies have long been intertwined, their paths to power couldn’t be more divergent. Abe is a prince, son of a foreign minister and grandson and great-nephew of prime ministers. Mr. Suga is the son of a farmer and a school teacher from Akita Prefecture, a rural backwater in northern Japan. He is the first LDP leader since the founding of the party in 1955 who does not belong to any faction. He is also the first in nearly 30 years that he did not inherit his seat in parliament from a relative.
After leaving home for Tokyo, Mr. Suga first worked in a cardboard factory. He entered politics as secretary to a politician in Yokohama and eventually rose to the National Diet on the municipal council.
That background also shaped the priorities of the two leaders. Abe’s mission was to revive Japan’s position on the world stage and revise Japan’s constitution to legalize its armed forces. He saw his plans for economic revival as a means to those more important ends. For Suga, economic recovery is a goal in itself. As chief cabinet secretary, he lobbied for more competition in agriculture and telecommunications, advocated for free trade agreements, and worked to stimulate inbound tourism. He also defended measures to admit more foreign workers. “His passion is on the domestic side,” says Gerald Curtis of Columbia University.
Mr. Suga will need all the passion he can muster. Abe brought dynamism to the Japanese economy after decades of stagnation. But covid-19 has pushed it back and deflationary fears have returned. Suga promises to stick to “abenomics,” including expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus. However, the Bank of Japan has little room for maneuver. Then the “third arrow” of structural reform will become increasingly essential, says Muguruma Naomi of Mitsubishi. UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, a financial joint venture.
In addition to curbing the pandemic, that will be Suga’s mission as prime minister. “I don’t think I use the expression ‘third arrow'”, says Niinami Takeshi, CEO from Suntory Holdings, a giant beverage company and advisor to the government. “But it will work on deregulation and structural reforms.” The combination could include measures to boost worker productivity, digitize government services and improve coordination between ministries.
Such changes will meet fierce resistance. Success will depend on Suga’s ability to manage three challenges. First is the outside world. Suga has shown little interest in foreign affairs, an area in which Abe shined. The second is your own party. Not belonging to a faction can give Suga some flexibility. But it can also leave you vulnerable to internal party machinations if you stumble, especially as the year ahead LDP the election draws near. Third is the public. Suga lacks charisma and has a combative relationship with the media.
Suga has tried to shape a new image, emphasizing his difficult life story and his fondness for pancakes. “As the oldest son born on an Akita farm, I want to appreciate the rural regions,” he declared at his first press conference as prime minister. Your chance to forge a new compact with voters may come sooner rather than later. The Diet’s mandate lasts until next fall, but rumors of snap elections abound. It would be a dangerous move in the midst of the pandemic. But it would also be a statement that Mr. Suga is ready to step out of the shadows and embrace the spotlight. ■
This article appeared in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “Finding Suga-san.”
